The Scotsman April 3, 2003
SPECULATION ABOUT SADDAM'S FATE GROWS AS HE FAILS TO SHOW HIS FACE
By Alex Massie
SADDAM Hussein was shown laughing and smiling with members of his cabinet on Iraqi television last night, but the footage did nothing to dispel speculation that he might be dead or seriously wounded.
He was wearing a military uniform in the footage, and he and his ministers appeared to be in a bare, closed room, with no windows or curtains. But once again there was no proof that the pictures had been recorded since the attack on Iraq began.
Earlier, Iraqi television had delivered a statement from the Iraqi leader - the second day in a row that a statement had been read on his behalf. However, his failure to appear before the cameras has only increased rumours that he might have been killed or badly wounded in the first air strikes against leadership compounds in Baghdad two weeks ago.
Michael Swetman, a former CIA analyst, was suspicious about someone else reading out the Saddam TV statements. "This is something that would never have happened before," he said.
"It's very important to them to maintain the aura that he's still alive so that he can keep the country in fear. The regime has to be greatly afraid that, if it becomes clear he is gone, not only will the population rise up but the troops will defect too."
However, some analysts said that Saddam's non-appearance should not be taken as proof that he was dead or wounded - it could be that he was avoiding an appearance on television to stop US or British intelligence pinpointing his location.
"If I were in his position, I wouldn't want to be in a bunker," said Patrick Garrett, a defence analyst at globalsecurity.org. "But I haven't seen any indication that he is a) alive b) dead or c) even in Baghdad. If he is still alive, he is playing it smart and playing it safe."
Some analysts believe that Saddam might be reluctant to seek refuge in one of his series of presidential bunkers because many, if not all, of them have been targeted by coalition aircraft. Observers have raised the possibility that he might have slipped out of the capital, possibly to a safe refuge near his home city of Tikrit, and that he might have done so as soon as the war began.
On Tuesday morning, Iraqi television had advertised that Saddam would appear in person. Instead, Iraq's information minister, Mohammed Saeef al-Sahhaf, turned up to read a message from Saddam that portrayed the war as a jihad, or holy war, between Islam and the West.
Yesterday, an Iraqi television news presenter in military uniform read a statement in which Saddam repeatedly called upon his people to fight and said that the Iraqi armed forces had not used their full capabilities in the battle.
Since the "decapitation" strike on one of Saddam's bunkers a fortnight ago, the Iraqi leader has appeared on television twice to deliver messages of encouragement to the people.
The United States believes both of those appearances, plus additional footage of Saddam holding a meeting of his war cabinet, could have been pre-recorded.
Pentagon officials hope that the longer Saddam remains hidden from public view, the more the Iraqi people will begin to think his rule is coming to an end.
The White House and the Pentagon have, in recent days, appeared to all but taunt Saddam, daring him to show his face.
On Sunday, the US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, pointed to unconfirmed reports that members of Saddam's family - including his first wife, the mother of his two sons - had begun to flee. "Where is Saddam Hussein?" he asked. "Where is Qusay, where is Uday, his sons? They're not talking."
President George Bush's spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said on Tuesday that Saddam's continued non-appearance raised an "interesting question." He added: "If you're in Iraq, if you're part of the Iraqi regime, if you're part of the leadership structure, especially if you had something hard or concrete to report, such as that Saddam was alive, the question is why aren't they showing it?"
© Copyright 2003 The Scotsman Publications Ltd.
