The Jerusalem Post April 01, 2003
'Low risk of Iraqi attack on Israel could change quickly'
By Nina Gilbert
While the chances of an Iraqi attack on Israel remain low, a turn of events could quickly change the threat assessment, an IDF intelligence official told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.
The discovery of nonconventional weapons, a hit on a senior member of the Iraqi leadership, or an existential threat to Saddam Hussein's regime could increase the risk of an attack, according to Brig.-Gen. Yossi Kupperwasser, head of the IDF Intelligence Branch's research division. He said coalition forces have reached "the majority" of suspected nonconventional weapons and missile launching sites in western Iraq. But he said the Iraqis may be "holding" missiles or banned chemical and biological weapons in Syria.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told the committee that the US-led forces have invested and are investing "great efforts" in western Iraq to prevent the launching of missiles at Israel.
Sharon expressed great appreciation for the work of the coalition forces, saying that commitments made to Israel had been met. However, he said that Israel would not compromise its security interests out of consideration for the interests of those who are taking part in the campaign against Iraq. Israel must rely only on itself, he added.
As for the US peace road map, Sharon said that Israel would not agree to a role for the Europeans equal to that of the US in the peace process because of their "imbalanced" approach to the conflict. He said that Israel would also not agree to the Quartet or Arab states acting as monitors of the process.
Labor Party and opposition leader Amram Mitzna said after the meeting that progress in the peace process is crucial for improving both security and economic problems.
"Israel must start the process even if terror is not halted completely," he said.
Mitzna said Israel must demand a "maximum effort" from the new Palestinian government in fighting terror, though terror "cannot be prevented totally." Sharon, too, said Israel is not waiting for the road map, and is holding "indirect" contacts with Palestinians.
Addressing the appointment of Mahmoud Abbas as Palestinian prime minister, Sharon said that his success depends on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat being kept from influencing on policy.
Mitzna said he hopes that the Sharon government does not embrace Abbas "too strongly or closely." He said an Abbas government has a good chance of succeeding, and how Israel acts will have an influence on his success.
Meretz MK Ran Cohen also warned against embracing Abbas too closely. He said that unless Israel offers a reasonable formula for two states for two peoples, there is no chance that Abbas will be able to form a leadership that is willing to yield the "right of return" and halt terror and incitement to violence against Israelis.
Meretz MK Yossi Sarid compared the US war in Iraq against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to Israel's campaign against Arafat. He said the US campaign is another "example of the limits of power" and the US will not be able to bring stability, even if it achieves military victory.
Sarid said the US would have the same experience it had in Vietnam, Lebanon, and Somalia, when forces were quickly pulled out without achieving "democracy and a new order."
"Until the US and Israel learn the facts of life we will keep going from one disaster to another," said Sarid.
GRAPHIC: Map: Day 12 - America intensifies air war (Credit: Pentagon Briefings, Upi, Reuters, Global Security.Org, Graphic News)
Copyright © 2003, The Jerusalem Post
