Reuters March 26, 2003
Toughest battles await US forces at Baghdad's gates
By John Chalmers
SAYLIYA CAMP, Qatar, March 26 (Reuters) - It may be a shadow of its former self, but Iraq's Republican Guard is still a combat-hardened force. And it stands at the gates to Baghdad.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair has spoken of a "crucial moment" when the U.S. 5th Corps runs into the Republican Guard's 2nd Medina Division at a "red line" near Kerbala south of the capital, a clash that may be just days away.
Other divisions of the Republican Guard, a force of some 60,000-80,000 men, are believed to be drawn up elsewhere against the invaders along a "red line" around the capital. U.S. officers say they expect to face the Baghdad Division near Kut.
But what firepower do the Guards have? And will they fight?
"Every Apache helicopter crew that went up against them this week will tell you that they will fight," said John Pike of globalsecurity.org. "They are perfectly capable of counter-attacking the 5th Corps."
At least one Apache came down in a battle near Kerbala on Monday and pilots of others were quoted as saying their craft were riddled with bullets after hitting a "hornet's nest".
There is, though, a chance that the much-heralded push into Baghdad from the south will never happen, leaving the Republican Guard braced in the wrong place as U.S.-led forces swing in with a sucker punch from the west.
President Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard, which includes three armoured divisions with some 600 Soviet-built T-72 tanks, stands as a buffer between the regular army and Baghdad.
They are better paid than conscripts, they get more training and they have higher morale and more esprit de corps.
"Saddam Hussein needs an army strong enough to suppress the population but not so strong that it is a threat to the regime," said Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at Britain's Warwick University.
"The Republican Guard is pretty much anti-Saddam but they are ferociously loyal to Iraq."
If U.S.-led forces break through the ring held by the Republican Guard, they may still have to take on the elite Special Republican Guard in Baghdad itself.
This commando force of 20,000 to 25,000 is charged with the protection of Baghdad and Tikrit, Saddam's hometown. Trained for urban warfare, it is reported to have ground-to-air defences, about 100 tanks, artillery and many anti-tank weapons.
HAMMERED IN 1991
One of three tank divisions which make up the heart of the Republican Guard, Medina Al Munawara -- Medina the Luminous -- probably has 8,000-10,000 troops, about 200 Soviet-built T-72 tanks and around the same number of armoured troop carriers.
It attacked Kuwait from the west in 1990 but within a month it had withdrawn with three other Republican Guard divisions to southeastern Iraq to be replaced by regular army forces.
At the end of February 1991 the American 1st Armoured Division fought remnants of these divisions, destroying 61 tanks and 34 armoured personnel carriers in less than an hour.
"Even by the grim standards of the Persian Gulf War,it was an impressive tableau of destruction," wrote Michael Gordon and General Bernard E. Trainor in their book "The Generals' War".
"It was more like a one-sided clay pigeon shoot than an armoured batle."
Unlike the U.S. M1 tanks' targeting system, which created images from heat given off by the Iraqi tanks, the Iraqi T-72's targeting system depended on available light -- it was overcast -- and they were less effective at long-range.
But the Tawakalna Republican Guard Division counter-attacked against U.S. forces to cover the retreat of the other decimated divisions: "When Saddam Hussein told them to go they withdrew rather than fall apart," said Pike.
The Republican Guard lived to fight another day.
In 1997 the Medina division was assigned to protect the Iraqi capital and now stands on the Baghdad side of the Euphrates river opposite Kerbala.
"PRETTY BAD SHAPE"
U.S. forces which have advanced to less than 100 km (63 miles) short of Baghdad have already been confronting the division around Kerbala and waves of U.S. Apache helicopters been attacking their positions.
"They've got a lot less than they had 48 hours ago, and the U.S. is going to make sure these Republican Guard brigades are in pretty bad shape before they go in," said Pike.
The Iraqis can still throw heavy punches with inferior equipment, as irregular forces showed on Tuesday by disabling two A1-M1 main battle tanks by firing rockets from the back of pick-up trucks.
Republican Guard forces were dispersed ahead of the war to reduce the impact of expected airstrikes. It is unclear if they will converge on dug-in fighting positions stocked with ammunition and supplies as the ground battle approaches.
General Barry McCaffrey, a professor of national security studies at West Point and a Vietnam veteran, wrote in a recent opinion column that they will almost certainly crumble.
"In my judgement the Republican Guard forces simply are not capable of dealing with the violence, tempo, night operations and precise munitions of a U.S.-British air-ground assault," he said.
Copyright © 2003, Reuters
