Sunday Mail (QLD) March 23, 2003
Fading might of a rag-tag army
THE ease with which allied forces have so far swept through Iraq has exposed how the country's military has gone from a 1 million-strong fighting force to a rag-tag outfit half that size.
The Iraqi military, once the fourth-biggest in the world, has dwindled to about 390,000 troops.
But US army officials believe only the 100,000 members of the Republican Guard and the elite Special Republic Guard pose a credible defence that would fight to the finish.
Analysts said the well-trained core could still prove deadly to allied forces if Saddam Hussein deploys them in and around his strongholds, Baghdad and his northern hometown of Tikrit.
With no real air force or navy to speak of after Iraq's defeat in 1991, US commanders have turned their attention to the army.
The troops have at their disposal more than 2000 tanks, 1800 armoured personnel carriers and thousands of heavy weapons, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, according to figures from GlobalSecurity.org, a US military analysis firm.
Saddam was believed to have retained up to 20 scud missiles, though he appears to have fired most -- if not all -- with no damage to his enemies.
The United States, Britain and Australia have assembled 280,000 troops.
Up to three-quarters of the Iraqi Army is believed to be in no state to fight, according to US and British reports.
Underfunded, underfed and already surrendering in droves, the ordinary soldiers are largely dismissed in both Baghdad and Washington's war plans.
The remaining 100,000 elite troops are another matter. Better paid, better trained and much better equipped, these divisions are seen as fiercely loyal to Saddam and ready to offer a strong fight.
Having learned from his strategic failures in Gulf War I, when he severely underestimated the strength, technology and the resolve of the allied forces, Saddam is widely expected to group his hard-core soldiers around Baghdad and Tikrit for a last stand.
The aim would be to lure allied soldiers into the urban centres, negating their advantage of air supremacy and putting the invaders in unfamiliar settings crowded with civilians, all of whom have been exhorted to make guerilla strikes.
Saddam's tactic would be to create a sort of Grozny or Mogadishu scenario, where allied troops could be picked off and where they would hesitate to hit back.
Various military analysts "have warned of very heavy casualties from fighting through blocked and barricaded streets, under constant attack from snipers, dug-in tanks and plunging mortar bombs -- as well as the pervasive small arms fire of thousands of militia volunteers", said Edward Luttwak of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
But civilian resistance is unlikely to be effective and Israel's now-regular armoured assaults against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip show that it can be beaten.
The army's weakness has been exposed by the lightning speed at which allied armoured columns have raced in the push to Baghdad, 500km north of the Kuwait border.
The advance was tipped to be a test of US logistics, although they have proceeded almost at will.
Fears that Saddam would also blow up dams across the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, stalling US convoys, appear to have been unfounded.
NUMBERS GAMES - HOW THE SIDES LINE UP
IRAQ
TROOPS
390,000, including 17 regular army divisions, 6 Republican Guard divisions (up to 70,000 troops), 4 brigades of Special Republican Guards trained in urban warfare (up to 25,000),1500 Special Security Organisation troops under the control of Qusay Hussein, in control of chemical and biological weapons.
TANKS/MISSILES
Up to 700 T72 heavy tanks, 1800 BMP-2 and BDRM-2 light tanks,1800 armoured personnel carriers, 2000 self-propelled artillery pieces,1000 SA-7 soldier-borne portable sur-face-to-air missiles, 400 larger SA-2,SA-3, SA-6 "Gainful" SAMs, between 2 and 20 scud launchers and missiles with a potential range of 500KM.
AIRCRAFT
About 300 interceptors and ground attack craft, predominantly Russian-built MiGs,100 combat helicopters, 20,000 personnel.
ALLIES
TROOPS
280,000, including more than 200,000 US Marines, Infantry, Airborne and Special Forces; 42,000 British including Royal Marines and Paras; 2000 Australians drawn from the SAS, 16th Defence Regiment, 4RAR commandos, navy and air force.
TANKS/MISSILES
900 Abrams M1 battle tanks plus British Challengers, 580 Bradley light armoured vehicles plus UK Warrior personnel carriers, 400 artillery pieces, 1000-plus Tomahawk missiles.
AIRCRAFT
1000 including US F/A-18s, F-16s, B2 Stealth bombers, AC-130 gunships; UK Tornado fighter-bombers, Jaguar and Harrier jets; Australia's 14 F/A-18 fighters, 2 Orion patrol planes, helicopters and 3 C-130 troop transporters.
SHIPS
140, including four US aircraft carrier battle groups, attack submarines, 25,000-troop amphibious assault force; British destroyers, carriers, frigates, mine sweepers, cruise missile sub; Australia's support ship Kanimbla, frigates Anzac and Darwin.
Copyright © 2003, Nationwide News Pty Limited
