Daily News (New York) March 23, 2003
DO TROOPS FACE BIO AMBUSH? Fears about Baghdad
By Maggie Haberman
Four days into the war, the lingering question remains: If Saddam Hussein has an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, why hasn't he used them?
The likeliest answer is that the Iraqi dictator is waiting until U.S. and British forces, now racing across the desert, reach Baghdad, experts said yesterday.
"He's probably waiting to use them as a last resort," said Peter Brookes, an expert on military strategy with the conservative, Washington-based Heritage Foundation.
"He's probably trying to drag the Americans in," added Brookes, who noted that Saddam has said he is gathering his most elite soldiers into cities.
"I think what he can't do is use these weapons up front. He has his own game plan."
Other explanations could be that the allied forces have punched holes in Saddam's communications with his own military - or that his stash of biological and chemical weapons isn't as big as originally believed.
"We really won't know [how much he has] until we get in there," Brookes said.
Saddam's PR game?
At his first briefing from the U.S. Central Command in Qatar yesterday, Gen. Tommy Franks said rooting out Saddam's "weapons of mass destruction represents one of the key objectives."
Franks said allied forces are acting on tips and solid information from defectors and informants about where those weapons are stored, but refused to give details.
Brookes said Saddam may have opted not to use the weapons in the opening salvos of the war because he has always denied having them.
"His strategy is a public-relations strategy. He's trying to play on world public opinion," Brookes added, saying Saddam may be hoping to drag out the conflict as long as possible in the hopes that the anti-war sentiment around the globe eventually puts pressure on the U.S. to back off.
Another reason may be that the Iraqi leader miscalculated the coalition troops' movements, and that his deadly weapons operations in western Iraq already have been shut down.
"Remember, there are [elements of the war] that we're not seeing on TV," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, another think tank in Washington.
Pike said he was "puzzled" that the handful of rockets Iraq launched into neighboring Kuwait three days ago weren't equipped with deadly warheads.
"It strikes me as pretty half-hearted. I think it is some miscalculation on Saddam's part," Pike said, adding that he had suspected Saddam would aim straight for Kuwait or Israel early on.
Saddam's decision not to use any biological agents in the first few days didn't surprise George Friedman of Stratfor, a global policy firm with headquarters in Texas.
"In a war that's really fast-moving like this," such weapons aren't effective, said Friedman, noting they often take more than 24 hours to work and wouldn't slow down advancing troops.
Copyright © 2003, Daily News, L.P.
