The Toronto Sun March 22, 2003
Victory in 6 Days?
Earliest End to War Gauged By Experts
By Rob Granatstein
Six days.
That's the earliest possible time-frame for coalition troops to blitz Baghdad, take the city and end the war, experts say.
But there's no guarantee winning the war will be easy. It could be weeks of battle in Baghdad before Iraq is ready to fall.
John E. Pike, military expert at Global Security.org in Alexandria, Va., said with ground troops advancing about 160 km daily, the forces could be to Baghdad in a couple days. Although the advance will likely slow when forces get closer to the city.
'SHOCK AND AWE'
"If the ground troops get there in five days, it's going to take 24 hours for 'shock and awe' to work," Pike said, adding ground forces would then be in place to finish the Iraqis off.
At the top end, it will take six weeks if the war comes down to house-to-house fighting.
Pike said the coalition would want to empty the city of civilians, let starvation work a little against the Iraqi guard, then attack with another "shock and awe" assault from the air.
"Give them a real nasty pounding to save infantry lives, then send the infantry in to finish the job," Pike said. "It takes time."
That's if somebody decides to fight to the end.
"I think surrender is 50-50," Pike said.
Mercedes Stephenson, president of the Society of Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary, said the war has been a cakewalk so far, but difficulty could come in Baghdad.
'URBAN WARFARE'
"The Americans are not that good at urban warfare," Stephenson said. "In addition, the Iraqis don't really care if they kill civilians, the Americans have to care.
"That could slow the war down," Stephenson said, adding Iraqi biological or chemical weapons will also delay American progress. "But if the Iraqi forces are collapsing and surrendering and if the leadership is collapsing, it could be a very short war."
The Persian Gulf war in 1991 was essentially over in 100 hours.
GRAPHIC: photo by Laura Rauch, AP; AN IRAQI OFFICER cowers before U.S. military after being captured by American 1st Marine Division troops following a gun battle yesterday at the headquarters of the Iraqi 51st and 32nd mechanized infantry divisions near Az Bayer in Iraq.
Copyright © 2003, Sun Media Corporation
