Scripps Howard News Service March 20, 2003
Prospects mixed for Iraqi defection
By Lance Gay
- Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld sought to ratchet up the pressure Thursday, saying he's confident Iraq's military officer corps is questioning the future of Saddam Hussein's leadership now that U.S. forces are on the move.
It's not the first time American leaders have claimed there are deep divisions in the top echelon of Iraq's military questioning Saddam's leadership. After the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the CIA predicted that the Iraqi generals' crushing defeat would lead to a coup toppling Saddam within six months, which never happened.
But Rumsfeld said his judgment of dissent in Saddam's ranks isn't based on speculation but on "broad and deep evidence" of discord inside Iraq's 350,000-man army.
"We are in communication with still more people who are officials of the military at various levels - the regular army, the Special Republican Guard - who are increasingly aware that it's going to happen, he's going to be gone," the secretary said. "Once they are persuaded that that regime is history ... then their behavior begins to tip and change."
John Pike, of the GlobalSecurity.org military think tank in Washington, said he's sure that Rumsfeld will eventually be proven right, because American forces will force Iraq's army to capitulate. "A fraction will eventually defect because they will surrender," he said.
But Pike cautioned that Saddam has carefully recruited a corps of officers loyal to him, willing to fight to the end. They were put in command of Iraq's elite Republican Guard units Saddam keeps close around him in Baghdad.
"I think we're going to have to kill them," Pike said, adding that some of the better-trained units are effective fighting units "and perfectly capable of a good fight."
Pike said he's puzzled at how Iraq has deployed its forces for defending the country, noting that half the Republican Guard units that will carry the fight have been left around Baghdad, while the other half has been dispersed around Iraq. He expected Iraq to concentrate its forces to make a more effective defense.
Iraqi defectors contend Saddam's military force is a house of cards. Wafiq Sammarai, an Iraqi major general who once worked as Saddam's chief of intelligence before defecting to London in 1993, says he has told the CIA that many of Iraq's generals wouldn't fight. He urged the Pentagon to use psychological tactics to encourage them to join in revolt against Saddam.
But a study of Saddam's military structure, published by the Middle East Review of International Affairs in September, concluded that Saddam has surrounded himself with at least five layers of interlocking intelligence agencies designed to isolate him from coup attempts.
The reach of these agencies, the study concluded, permeates "every aspect of Iraqi life" and rivalry between them has served to thwart efforts by the CIA to sow division within the regime. Saddam also has surrounded himself by a special fedayeen or "Men of Sacrifice" force handpicked for their loyalty to the leader.
Henry Berger, a history professor at Washington University in St. Louis, said the Pentagon has had little success in previous wars using psychological warfare to get people to defect.
"We tried to do some of that in World War II, dropping leaflets and broadcasting with shortwave radio. Of course, we didn't have the technology we have today of TV," Berger said. Rumsfeld's comments Thursday were broadcast into Iraq via Commando Solo broadcasts.
Berger believes Saddam would anticipate appeals to defect, and array his forces so that only the strongest units remain to protect his life and regime. He said he's very skeptical about the administration's public pronouncements predicting Iraqis will welcome American forces with flowers.
On the Net: www.globalsecurity.org
Copyright © 2003, Scripps Howard News Service
