ABCNews.com March 19, 2003
After the Tyranny
Democracy, Unity Pose Challenge to U.S. in Post-Saddam Iraq
By Bryan Robinson
- If the "coalition of the willing" topples Saddam Hussein, establishing a democracy in Iraq will not be easy, and a U.S.-established regime may not be welcomed for very long.
After removing Saddam and his top administrative officials in his Baath party from power, the United States plans to oversee the rebuilding of Iraq's government while maintaining peace in the region during the transitional period. Under its post-Saddam plan, a U.S. military general would essentially run Iraq temporarily and provide a foundation for democracy with the help of some civil servants already in the Iraqi government.
Though some of the Iraqi people may see American troops as liberators, U.S. plans to temporarily rule Iraq will not be welcomed by the diverse group of rival Saddam opposition groups. Some of these groups, led by the London-based Iraqi National Congress, have already opposed keeping any remnants of Saddam's regime intact.
"One of the big challenges the U.S. will face in having the government in its existing administrative structure will be to cleanse the regime of all bodies of complicity [to Saddam], all elements of criminal activity," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org and an ABCNEWS consultant. "It was an issue in Germany and Japan after World War II. Whenever you have situations where authoritarians are overthrown, you are going to run into the question of how you go about holding persons responsible for criminal activity accountable," he said.
Finding Iraq's Authentic Voice
Groups that have opposed Saddam's rule include, among others:
- The Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella group of anti-Saddam organizations
- The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, rival groups that jointly rule northern Iraq
- The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution, an Iran-based Shiite movement in southern Iraq
- The Iraqi National Accord, comprised of Iraqi military and intelligence officials who defected from the Baath party
Though these groups are all exiled and agree that Saddam must be removed from power, they are still territorial, cultural and religious rivals. And their inability to cooperate over long run, experts say, has prevented them from overthrowing the dictator themselves and gaining legitimacy within Iraq. That fuels the need for U.S. intervention in establishing a new regime.
"The first step in pulling out a successor to a regime is figuring out who represents the needs and is recognized as a voice of the legitimacy in the region," said James Dobbins, director of the Rand Corporation's International Security and Defense Policy Center. "In Iraq, we don't know who that person is. None of the opposition groups have that air of legitimacy in Iraq. We know that there are people within Iraq who could effectively represent the people of Iraq, but we don't know who they are. . It will probably be a while before the United States turns over the reigns completely."
From 'Puppet' Government to Legitimacy
Still, the United States may need to ensure the trust of these groups to maintain the confidence of the Iraqi people and gain insight into their culture. The United States will have to find a way to establish a new government without giving the impression to these groups - and the outside world - that a repressive regime has been replaced by another repressive regime.
"One obstacle the United States will face is deciding how much change is desireable," said Phebe Marr, author of A Modern History of Iraq. "If you want real political change in Iraq, you're going to have to stick around long enough to install a new system. But if you do stay long enough to accomplish this, rest assured, you are going to get criticism from inside and outside for being a foreign colonial power."
Besides getting rid of weapons of mass destruction, experts say the new Iraqi will have to eliminate its secret police. Rebel groups are likely raise concerns over the role the Iraqi military - the same military that helped enforce Saddam's regime - may have in rebuilding Iraq. And the United States will encourage the new Iraq to have a peaceful relationship with Israel, which could cause more friction among the rebels.
But even after post-Saddam transition period ends, will a U.S.-established democracy really be representative of the Iraqi people or reflect what American leadership wants?
"In the absence of a legitimate political institution, any interim administration would have the appearance of a puppet regime," Pike said. "A fundamental challenge for the United States will be to foster the development of a civil society that can develop a legitimate political institution that fosters democratically elected leadership that represents Iraq rather than the U.S."
Maintaining Peace the New Iraq Order
If Saddam is removed, the first challenge the United States will face is maintaining order. Rebel groups may try to avenge the torture or loss of loved ones during Saddam's rule against anyone associated with the Baath party - including the wives and children of party leaders. And ousted Saddam loyalists who escape capture also could attempt revenge.
"One short-term obstacle will be potential retribution - that could pose a real problem," said Marr. "There are a lot of scores to settle. Saddam and his sons have led a brutal regime. And, it needs to be said, the rebels themselves have been brutal in attacks on some of those in power."
In addition, U.S. troops may have to maintain peace among Iraqi residents. Iraq is a conglomerate of several distinct territories, and the Sunni and Shiite Arabs, Kurds and others may not want to relinquish regions easily. Iraqi Kurds will not likely want to give up the hold on their autonomous regions in the current northern no-fly zone, and officials fear they may try to form a separatist state. Iraq's transformation will not be overnight.
"World War II ended 55 years ago and we still have troops in Germany and Japan," Pike said. "We have a history of easily sending our troops in and having a hard of getting our army out. This [Iraq's transition to democracy] is something that will take years, not weeks."
Copyright © 2003, ABC News Internet Ventures
