The Hamilton Spectator (Canada) March 19, 2003
U.S. plans blitz by air and land; But despite firepower, Pentagon has its worries
SOURCE: The Canadian Press
By Robert Russo
It's called the "shock and awe" concept: a hellish storm of precision-guided arms simultaneously slamming into targets across Iraq to psychologically crack Saddam Hussein's troops and sap them of their will to fight.
If they should turn their guns on Saddam while fleeing, all the better, Pentagon war planners say. Their scenario for the first 48 hours of war sounds terrifying, but is born out of fear.
Without a quick end, U.S. and British troops could get bogged down in bloody urban warfare in Baghdad that could kill their best soldiers and tempt a desperate Saddam to go to his "use it or lose it" weapons of mass destruction.
U.S. soldiers are well-equipped (though some say not well enough) and trained to deal with chemical weapons. Civilians would be the primary victims of weapons of mass destruction or a siege of Baghdad, analysts contend.
Not so, said General Richard Myers, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
He has said that if Saddam and other leaders can be bottled up in Baghdad surrounded by civilians, there would be no urgency to root him out because he would already have lost control of the country.
"The ultimate objective is not Saddam Hussein," Myers said. "If the leadership was isolated and not effective in governing the country, you know, that would be victory."
Civilians would be drawn out of the city by the promise of food, leaving behind the core of Saddam's concentric defences: the Republican Guard, the special security organization and a presidential protection unit called Himayat al-Rais.
The war to force Saddam from power will be far different from 1991's Gulf War. That war began with more than five weeks of bombing, followed by a few days of ground battles.
The air and ground battle is likely to begin simultaneously. New E-bombs could be used to destroy electrical circuitry.
But like all man-made technology, precision-guided munitions can go wrong for a variety of reasons. There will be civilian casualties. In many ways, the war has already begun.
Special Operations fighters have been on the ground in northern Iraq for several weeks, working with anti-Saddam Kurds.
"Psy-ops" or psychological operations have been under way for months.
No one thought it was a coincidence that the Pentagon for the first time allowed cameras to record the recent testing of a new weapon. The message of the 9,500-kilogram Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb was directed at Iraqi soldiers. Its contents were clear: Resist and be obliterated.
Psy-ops units are undoubtedly behind "leaked" reports carried on television suggesting the Pentagon is already in touch with Iraqi commanders prepared to turn on Saddam.
Thousands of leaflets have been dropped on Iraqi soldiers, urging them to surrender or change sides. Those who fight are threatened with death.
One leaflet depicts a dead, disfigured Iraqi soldier over which are printed the words: "Do not risk your life and the lives of your comrades."
On the other side, there is a picture of a young Iraqi student. "Leave now and go home," it urges. "Watch your children learn, grow and prosper."
The U.S. hopes there will be only limited resistance. But Saddam is not without defensive options, said Anthony Cordesman, a defence analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It is clear that Iraq already has a two-layer defence of the greater Baghdad area," he said.
Regular troops will be used in the outermost ring. These conscripts will take the brunt of casualties, he said.
The elite Republican Guard will probably try to hold key strong points. Bridges will be blown up, trenches filled with oil, earthen barriers built and a mix of surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns.
U.S. and British special forces and air assault units could carry out night assaults at strategic points in Baghdad to "decapitate" Iraqi defenders.
The 101st Airborne Division has spent several weeks rehearsing street-fighting skills in a plywood and concrete mock-up town in Louisiana.
But Patrick Garrett, a military analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, said U.S. training has not prepared troops for the intensity of a battle in the alleys of Baghdad.
"In the war games, they've been having 30 to 70 per cent casualty rates, and they're going to be dealing with a force that's immeasurably stronger."
Copyright © 2003, Toronto Star Newspapers, Ltd.
