The San Francisco Chronicle March 18, 2003
Pentagon plans all-out air attack ahead of invasion
By Edward Epstein
When war against Iraq finally begins, as seems certain in the next few days, the Pentagon's plan is to hit Saddam Hussein's outgunned forces with powerful blows from every direction and get the war over within a few days.
The Defense Department has made little secret of its vision for the war's opening. The plan calls for an unprecedented 3,000 air strikes by bombers and missiles and possibly new weapons such as high-energy microwave bombs that short out power lines without destroying them.
Key targets in a country roughly the size of California would include what's left of Iraq's air force and air defenses, Scud missiles, command and communications facilities and Hussein's palaces. The bombs would also seek to destroy or disorient any Iraqi forces that Hussein sends into the open or to dug-in forward positions along the Kuwaiti or Saudi Arabian borders.
The military believes two or three days of such heavy bombing should stun Iraqi forces, which, except for a few elite units of Hussein's Republican Guard and his clansmen from the city of Tikrit, are thought to be poorly fed and trained and consist mainly of conscripts who just want to go home. These troops already have been subjected to U.S. psychological warfare, including air-dropped leaflets that encourage them not to resist when U.S. and British forces arrive.
In fact, the BBC reported Monday, a small contingent of bedraggled Iraqi soldiers -- their worn-out shoes held together with duct tape -- already tried to surrender to British marines. The marines fed them, and sent the Iraqis on their way, for now.
It isn't clear yet whether the ground war will start simultaneously with the air war or wait for a large number of Iraqi targets to be destroyed. But U.S. and British forces in Kuwait have left their bases and are waiting in forward staging areas to attack.
"It would be my guess that this war under these conditions would basically be decided in less than a week," said Anthony Cordesman, military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Unforeseen circumstances, however, may make Cordesman's optimism seem misplaced once the battle begins. Variables from the weather to Hussein's potential use of chemical weapons could alter the U.S. military's timetable.
But, if all goes as planners envision, U.S. and British forces will try to to seize the southern Iraqi city of Basra and its surrounding oil fields within hours and advance less than 300 miles north toward Baghdad. Because Turkey has so far refused to allow any of the 235,000 U.S. or 45,000 British forces or more than 1,000 combat planes and helicopters to use its territory, ground assaults from the north will be limited at the outset.
After the first day or two of the ground war, airborne forces from the 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions will be deployed in a leap-frog fashion further north along the road to Baghdad. The first target for U.S. ground forces in the north will probably be the oil fields around Kirkut and Mosul, cities near the Kurdish-controlled part of northern Iraq.
ROLLING START TO THE WAR
The Pentagon plans a so-called rolling start to the war because Turkey's refusal to allow troops has left much of the equipment for the Army's 4th Infantry Division aboard ships in the Mediterranean Sea. The Navy has started to move the freighters carrying the equipment through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea so the gear can be unloaded after reaching the Persian Gulf.
The division's soldiers, however, largely remain at Fort Hood in Texas, and will be airlifted to the region over the next several days.
While some commanders would prefer to have all the U.S. forces in place before starting the war, Pentagon planners have decided to go ahead, in part because the highly mechanized, airborne dominance of the forces means northern Iraq isn't out of the reach of units that will attack from the south.
Also, it was reported Monday from Ankara that Turkey's parliament may reconsider its refusal to allow U.S. forces on its land.
The plans for an attack from the south forecast reaching Baghdad's outer defenses within three or four days, when the war would enter its climactic phase, which could drag on for several more days if Hussein mounts a house-to-house urban defense.
The outlines of the powerful U.S. attack are clear, but Hussein's plan for defending against such an assault remains shadowy. Recent unverified reports suggest he has dispersed forces toward the southern front, which would place them in peril of being quickly destroyed, that he has opened the tap on oil pipelines to try to set fire to vast swaths of his country and that he might blow up dams to flood parts of the country.
The main speculation centers on whether Hussein will use chemical or biological weapons.
A chemical attack is considered much more likely than a biological attack, mainly because the American and British forces have been vaccinated against anthrax and smallpox, the two main agents reportedly in Hussein's arsenal.
Attacks by such chemical weapons as sarin, VX nerve gas or mustard gas are thought more likely. The invaders are equipped with detection equipment for such gases and have been trained to use chemical weapons suits.
With his back to the wall, "Saddam Hussein would be incredibly stupid if he didn't use them," said Patrick Garrett, an analyst at Globalsecurity.org. "He has only a few tricks or cards to use and chemical weapons are one of them."
Hussein could delay or frighten his enemy by using such weapons, which would most likely be delivered by artillery shells, but they are unlikely to stop the invasion.
"He still has a limited capability, but his weapons aren't highly lethal," said Cordesman. However, he said that if Hussein uses chemical weapons, there will be some American casualties.
PROVING BUSH RIGHT
The other problem for Hussein in using such weapons is that their deployment would prove President Bush's contention that the Iraqi leader has been deceiving the United Nations by hiding such banned weapons. But Hussein may feel he has nothing to lose.
Hussein could also initiate terrorist attacks, either by his own forces or through terrorist organizations, as revenge or in an effort to intimidate the United States.
U.S. FORCES PREPARE FOR WAR
-- American troops in the area
U.S. military forces poised to attack Iraq now number more than 225,000, with another 90,000 on the way, and about 25,000 British troops are also in the region. There are about 1,000 Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps combat and support aircraft in the area. Senior American and British commanders have said they could begin an invasion of Iraq even as more combat units continue to arrive in the region, an approach they call a ""rolling start.".-- -- --
-- A U.S.-Led Strike: One Scenario
Experts say a U.S.-led attack on Iraq will be swift and highly coordinated: - Marines, ferried by helicopter, secure major Iraqi oil fields to thwart sabotage attempts. - Once Iraq's major oil fields are secure, troops may race to surround Baghdad and bypass some Iraqi defensive forces, especially the highly motivated Special Republican Guard assigned to Hussein's hometown of Tikrit. - Fighters from Incirlik and allied carriers in the Mediterranean Sea support the ground attack. - Airborne soldiers secure oil fields. - Allied tanks drive south. - Scud launch area: Special forces hunt hidden weapon caches and Scud launchers in the desert. - Fighters from U.S. carriers support advance. - Large allied tank force from Camp Doha drives north toward Baghdad. - Fighters from Saudi bases - Smaller U.S. tank force supports Basra attack. - Attack jets from al Jaber protect ground troops. - Air Force fighters based in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar attack Iraqi air defenses, giving U.S.-led aircraft complete freedom of movement..
Sources: Boston Globe; Associated Press; United Nations; Federation of American Scientists; ESRI.-- -- --
-- Most Recent Developments - About 60,000 troops were ordered to deploy: 26,000 from the 1st Armored Division, at Fort Riley, Kan., and in Germany; 24,000 from the 1st Cavalry Division, at Fort Hood, Tex.; and 10,000 from the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, at Fort Polk, La. - The aircraft carrier Nimitz sailed from San Diego on March 3. It will be the sixth U.S. aircraft carrier in the region when it arrives in April. - The 1,800-strong 173rd Airborne Brigade at Caserme Ederle, Italy, has been alerted to deploy. - B-2 stealth bombers were sent from Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo. More B-1 heavy bombers were also sent. 343 01114 B-52 heavy bombers recently arrived in Britain. - About 4,700 troops from the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, at Fort Carson, Colo., were ordered to deploy. - The Army's 4th Infantry Division troops are still in the U.S., but more than three dozen ships carrying its equipment are in the eastern Mediterranean.
-- -- --
Analysts say U.S. forces could expect to reach Baghdad from Kuwait in two to four days, although Iraqi resistance or equipment problems could slow their movement..
When the war starts, precision-guided bombs and missiles would hit important targets like radar sites and command centers . . .
... while airborne units leapfrog ahead of armored forces to seize critical areas like oil facilities, establish forward operating bases and eliminate obstacles.
Helicopters could drop fuel and other supplies ahead of . . .
... armored tracked vehicles racing forward en masse with slower wheeled support vehicles trailing behind.
-- -- -- .
-- The Main Equipment for a Ground Attack
AH-64 APACHE Attack helicopter
AV-8B HARRIER Fighter jet
UH-60 BLACK HAWK Troop helicopter
AH-1W SUPER COBRA Attack helicopter
M1A1 ABRAMS Main battle tank
M2A3 BRADLEY Fighting vehicle
F/A-18 HORNET Fighter/bomber
M1A1 ABRAMS Main battle tank .
-- The Main Forces in Kuwait
About 130,000 Americans, including:
Army's 3rd Infantry Division: About 21,000 troops Army's 101st Airborne Division: More than 21,000 troops Marines: About 64,000, including the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit. 82nd Airborne Division: 5,000 troops Headquarters elements of the Army's V Corps. Special Operations troops: A few thousand British troops: About 25,000, including the 1st Armored Division.
Sources: Military officials; Globalsecurity.org; Center for Defense Information; Center for Strategic and International Studies; Associated Press New York Times, Associated Press and Chronicle Graphic
E-mail Edward Epstein at eepstein@sfchronicle.com.
GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, U.S. FORCES PREPARE FOR WAR / New York Times , Associated Press and Chronicle Graphic
Copyright © 2003, The Chronicle Publishing Co.
