Time International February 24, 2003
Kim's War Machine;
With obsolete tanks, scarce ammo and scant fuel, the Dear Leader's army desperately needs nukes
By Donald Macintyre/Seoul
If they were images of anywhere else in the world, the photographs would suggest something quite benign: columns of black smoke swirling harmlessly out of a tall chimney across a snowy landscape. But the shots taken earlier this month by U.S. spy satellites were of the Yongbyon nuclear facility, ground zero for the North Korean nuclear threat--and where there's smoke, there's fire. Analysts say the photos indicate North Korea has taken yet another step toward building multiple atomic weapons. The smoke is rising from a coal-fired steam plant. It produces energy for a reprocessing facility capable of turning 8,000 spent-fuel rods possessed by the North into bomb-ready fissile material. "Any reactivation of the reprocessing plant is very serious," says a South Korean defense analyst. "If they do reprocessing at full speed, it won't take them more than three months to produce plutonium."
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, lauded by his lackeys as a "military genius" and "Great General," appears to have concluded that his country can't win a war without the ultimate weapon. Purely from the viewpoint of a military strategist, that conclusion may be inescapable. With 1.1 million men under arms, North Korea boasts the world's fourth-largest military. It has a formidable conventional arsenal, short-and long-range missiles, chemical weapons and one of the biggest "special operations" forces trained to go behind enemy lines. Last week, Americans learned how big the North Korean threat has become when CIA chief George Tenet testified to Congress that Korea's latest missile could probably carry a nuclear warhead to California. Says Victor Cha, a Korea expert at Georgetown University in Washington: "North Korea is not just a peninsula-security problem for the U.S. anymore. It is a homeland-security issue."
Kim may be capable of terrorist-style strikes. But he needs an equalizer like the Bomb because his military almost certainly lacks the capacity to win a prolonged ground conflict involving conventional forces--the most likely scenario should a conflict erupt across the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea, where 560,000 South Korean soldiers stand guard with the support of 37,000 U.S. troops. The North gets its military clout from sheer size--almost a third of its GDP goes into military spending. But the isolated, impoverished country equips its troops with outmoded hardware, some of it dating back to the cold war.
The majority of its tanks, for example, were acquired from the now defunct Soviet Union. Visitors to the country say jeeps and other military vehicles are commonly seen broken down by the side of the road. A senior officer who defected from the Korean People's Army says there isn't enough fuel for military exercises and soldiers are told not to waste bullets during training. Food is also in short supply. Troops eat better than the country's starving citizens, but some units raise cabbages and pigs to keep from going hungry.
North Korea's navy is small and its air force is dysfunctional. Because of chronic fuel shortages, pilots are limited to less than 10 hours of flight training a year, compared with the 200 to 300 hours that U.S. air-force pilots receive. High-tech warfare? Pyong-yang has upgraded communications equipment in recent years to make it harder for opponents to eavesdrop. But North Korea's generals lack high-tech tools for reconnaissance, surveillance and targeting, which are crucial to a modern fighting force.
Pyongyang's inability to win a war may be comforting only to war-games theorists, however. The desperate nation--or at least its military elite--would probably fight to the death. Defense experts say North Korea's countryside is virtually a fortress, honeycombed with hardened bunkers and tunnel complexes shielding troops and supplies. Kim is known to admire the blitzkrieg tactics used by Nazi Germany in the early stages of World War II to swiftly overrun and overwhelm opponents. At the outset of a ground war, the North could blanket South Korea and U.S. troops with chemical weapons. It could use up to 300 artillery pieces that are within striking distance of Seoul to pound the capital's population. More than half of the North's soldiers are deployed within 150 kilometers of the DMZ, so generals can concentrate forces quickly and avoid long supply lines, mitigating U.S. air power. Scuds and longer-range Nodong missiles could be hurled toward U.S. bases in Japan. Even if the North would eventually be defeated, the U.S. estimates a North Korean attack on Seoul could result in up to 1 million casualties. Says a U.S. military official: any war with the North "is going to be bloody." All the more reason to seek a diplomatic solution for what the U.S. still insists is not a crisis.
BOX STORY:
EYEBALL TO EYEBALL
North Korea has the fourth-largest military force in the world, with 1.1 million active servicemen and 4.7 million reserves. But it's a product of the cold war, not a modern fighting force. Although outmanned, South Korea is largely armed with modern Western equipment--and has the backing of 37,000 U.S. soldiers on the ground
ARMY
NORTH KOREA
Personnel 950,000 Battle tanks 3,500 Armored personnel carriers 2,500 Artillery 10,400 Surface-to-air missiles 10,000
Long-range guns among the 8,000 artillery pieces Pyongyang has positioned along the DMZ could rain 300,000 shells an hour onto targets in South Korea
Russian-made T--54 and T--55 series tanks, the mainstay of Pyongyang's armored divisions, debuted in the 1940s and 1950s
SOUTH KOREA
Personnel 560,000 Battle tanks 2,330 Armored personnel carriers 2,480 Artillery 4,774 Surface-to-air missiles 1,032
Since 2002, South Korea has added about 40 battle tanks, 90 self-propelled artillery systems and 30 multiple-rocket launchers to its arsenal
South Korea's domestically produced 88 tank has a highly accurate laser sighting system and a 30-kilometer firing range
AIR FORCE
[NORTH KOREA]
Personnel 86,000 Combat aircraft 621 Helicopters 24 Support aircraft 510
Chronic lack of jet fuel means North Korea's poorly trained pilots spend little time in the air
Most of North Korea's Chinese-and Soviet-made aircraft--like this MiG--21--are grossly inferior to modern warplanes
[SOUTH KOREA]
Personnel 63,000 Combat aircraft 555 Helicopters No data Support aircraft 180
Next-generation fighter planes, attack helicopters, surface-to-air missiles and unmanned aircraft are on the Defense Ministry's shopping list
Seoul's F--16 fighters have an edge over the Soviet-produced MiG--29, the most sophisticated aircraft used by the North
NAVY
[NORTH KOREA]
Personnel 46,000 Warships 420 Submarines 26 Support vessels 340
Only 40 out of the country's 420 combat vessels pose a substantial threat; the guided-missile boats are equipped with Styx antiship missiles with a range of 45 kilometers
Pyongyang's 22 Soviet-made, Romeo-class submarines are outdated and slow
[SOUTH KOREA]
Personnel 60,000 Warships 162 Submarines 20 Support vessels 40
Submarine intrusions by Pyongyang have spurred Seoul into action--over the next decade its fleet will be made up of Aegis-class destroyers and technically superior submarines
South Korea's submarines are loaded with modern weapon systems
Sources: The Military Balance 2002/2003; Globalsecurity.org; Center for Defense Information, Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment
GRAPHIC: COLOR PHOTO: DERMOT TATLOW KATSUMI KASAHARA--AP, [T OF C], ON THE EDGE: DMZ troops patrol the Korean border as tensions rise; COLOR PHOTO: KATSUMI KASAHARA--AP, BLITZKRIEG North Korea could send waves of troops across the DMZ; COLOR PHOTO: VYACHESLAV AFONIN, COLOR PHOTO: GLOBALSECURITY.ORG, TWO COLOR PHOTOS: MPL INTERNATIONAL, COLOR PHOTO, COLOR PHOTO: TERRY COSGROVE--U.S. NAVY--AFP
Copyright © 2003, Time Inc.
