Sunday Mail (QLD) February 23, 2003
Moonless key to date of invasion
By Tom Infield, Drew Brown
THE United States would prefer to attack Iraq during the moonless period of March 2-3, military analysts say.
The first Gulf War began with such a new moon, and defence experts are speculating on a similar tactic being used again by the Pentagon.
"The soonest they can start is just in time for the new moon," said Patrick Garrett of the GlobalSecurity.org website.
Defence officials said about 170,000 US ground, sea and air personnel were now in the Gulf region near Iraq -- including 99,000 US Army soldiers and Marines in Kuwait.
They said the total US force could reach 230,000 by late this month.
Five aircraft carriers -- four American and one British -- were in the Gulf and Mediterranean, and another US carrier was approaching in the Indian Ocean. That could put almost 275,000 American and British soldiers, sailors, Marines and Air Force personnel in the final invasion force.
About 2000 Australian military personnel are also in the region.
US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said enough forces were in place to begin an invasion if President George W. Bush gave the order.
Analysts said that with a war date so close, there could be a "rolling start" to the conflict where some forces would go into action immediately and others would join them days or even weeks later.
Full deployments of US ground forces probably could not be completed before mid-March.
It will take time for the remainder of the battle equipment to be shipped across the Atlantic and for the remainder of the troops to fly into the war zone.
Other sources said that with the full deployment of US ground forces unable to be completed before mid-March, the date for a full ground attack could be pushed closer to April.
Most analysts believe the Pentagon's invasion plan calls for a ground force of two to three heavy army divisions -- each with more than 400 tanks and armoured vehicles -- plus an army light infantry division, a Marine expeditionary force and a British task force.
The US Army's mechanised 3rd and 4th Infantry Divisions, the 101st Airborne Division and elements of the 18th Airborne Corps have all received deployment orders, as have several thousand soldiers from the 1st Infantry Division, based in Germany.
US Marine Corps General Peter Pace, vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the force now in the Gulf was "sufficient to do whatever the president might ask".
General Pace declined to say whether Pentagon brass would prefer to wait for the additional forces to arrive before going into a war.
"If we went before the entire force is there and we needed the rest of the force, we would be able to (bring in troops) in sufficient time," he said.
Copyright © 2003, Nationwide News Pty Limited
