The Boston Herald February 06, 2003
THE CASE AGAINST IRAQ; Evidence shows new details of missiles, drones
By Tom Walsh
Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday laid out to the United Nations what experts called a compelling case that Iraq has been developing long-range missiles and unmanned drones capable of delivering chemical and biological weapons
"Most of the substance wasn't new, but the level of detail was completely new," said John Ruggie, director of Harvard's Kennedy School Center for Government and Business.
"It makes it very difficult for countries that were dubious about the U.S. position to argue that this is somehow a figment of our imagination," Ruggie said.
Powell "went much further than previous intelligence had gone," said Dan Goure, vice president of the Lexington Institute, a defense-oriented Washington think tank.
Goure and others said Powell scored a direct hit with photos of missile-testing equipment that "leaves no argument" the Iraqis are pursuing long-range missiles, in violation of U.N. resolutions. "Iraq has built an engine test stand that is larger than anything it has ever had," Powell told the U.N.
Such test stands cost millions of dollars, experts said, adding there would be no sense in building a large stand for a small missile.
"The building of a test stand has always been an accurate indicator of the size of the missile to follow," Goure said. "When (Powell) said that there is a test stand that is five times bigger than what was there before, it means the Iraqis are in the middle of a banned missile development program."
Powell said Iraq was developing missiles with a range of more than 700 miles, well within striking distance of Israel.
"The photo coverage of the new Iraq motor test stand is convincing evidence of new efforts to develop very large missiles," said Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington.
Not all observers thought Powell's speech rose to the level needed to justify attacking Iraq.
Powell "made a clear and compelling case that Saddam Hussein is not cooperating with U.N. weapons inspectors, but he did not make a case for war," said Stephen Young, senior analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Young said the inspections should continue as long as the inspectors themselves believe progress is being made.
Powell also said the Iraqis were working on unmanned aircraft, or drones, that violate limits placed on such activity by U.N. resolutions.
"Obviously, the drones would pose a significant threat if they are carrying chemical or biological weapons," said Francois Boo, analyst at GlobalSecurity.org.
The immediate threat would be on the battlefield inside Iraq, or to Iraq's neighbors, Boo said.
Powell, however, told the U.N. that Iraq could ship the drones out of the country for use against the United States or other countries.
President Bush has previously said Iraq was experimenting with the Czech-built, Cessna-sized L-29 jet trainer, attempting to modify it for unmanned flight.
While Powell again mentioned the L-29 yesterday, he also said Iraq has attempted to modify a MiG-21 and smaller unmanned aerial vehicles, of UAVs - "well suited for dispensing chemical and biological weapons."
Using UAVs with spray mechanisms is "10 to 100 times more lethal" than dispersing chemical agents with conventional warheads, said Cordesman.
Powell said the drone Iraq is working on has a range of more than 300 miles.
"This would give Iraq a much more lethal long-range strike capability than previously estimated," Cordesman said.
Another compelling aspect of Powell's presentation, defense and security analysts said, was his account of Iraq's mobile bio-weapons production capability.
"We have first-hand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and rails," Powell said.
Cordesman said Powell "described a far more lethal current chemical threat than had previously been announced," including not only the mobile production facilities, but larger stockpiles of munitions than had been talked about.
Graphic: The evidence: Missiles-UAV intelligence
Secretary of State Colin Powell presented these pictures and information regarding Iraq missile and unmanned aerial vehicle capabilities in his presentation to the United Nations Security Council yesterday.
IRAQ MISSILE RANGE
Upon presenting this graphic, Powell said sources inside Iraq and other intelligence have indicated that Iraq has programs to produce various kinds of ballistic missiles with a range of 1,000 kilometers - about 620 miles - including a liquid fuel missile with a range of almost 1,200 kilometers. This map shows which nations would be in the line of fire from these weapons, including nations beyond Iraq's immediate neighbors.
UAVs OVER THE LIMIT
This is an example of a UAV, or unmanned aerial vehicle, which Powell says Iraq is concentrating on building and testing. UAVs are used for dropping chemical and biological weapons. In Iraq's Dec. 7 declaration, it claimed their UAVs have a range of only 80 kilometers. However, on June 27, 2002, one of Iraq's newest UAVs was detected in a test flight (shown in the map in a 'racetrack' formation) that went 500 kilometers nonstop, putting it well over the United Nations permits. This test flight was left out of the December declaration.
TEST STAND EVIDENCE
Powell showed this satellite photo to illustrate the 'dramatic difference in size' between the engine test stand on the left and the new one on the right. The test stand on the left was used for a short-range missile, and Powell said the larger one, with an exhaust vent about five times longer, is clearly intended for long-range missiles that can fly 1,200 kilometers. This photo was taken in April 2002, and since then, a roof has been constructed over the large test stand to make it harder to be photographed.
Source: Department of State; Staff graphic by David Russell
Copyright © 2003, Boston Herald Inc.
