Boston Globe February 06, 2003
Next steps: diplomacy, bolstering of Gulf forces
By Anne E. Kornblut and Robert Schlesinger, Globe Staff
WASHINGTON -- Having presented its case against Baghdad to the United Nations, the Bush administration is increasing diplomatic pressure on Iraq while continuing to build up military forces in preparation for war in the Persian Gulf.
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell went from his presentation to the Security Council to an afternoon of diplomatic meetings ''about the way forward,'' one senior State Department official said. Powell is ''testing whether there's support for, or a need for, an additional resolution'' authorizing the use of force, the official said.
President Bush and his senior advisers have made it clear that they do not think a second UN resolution is necessary. But they are planning to continue working with allies to produce one, and could vote on a new resolution soon after Feb. 14, when the UN weapons inspectors are scheduled to deliver their next progress report.
If a compromise resolution does not emerge -- or if France threatens to veto any resolution authorizing war -- the administration is likely to move ahead on its own, though officials said they would probably wait until after the third UN weapons inspector report, scheduled for Feb. 28. Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain requested during his trip to Washington last week that the White House take its time with military action, and Bush is expected to comply.
One of the difficulties in reaching an agreement on a resolution is that several countries -- Turkey, for example -- do not feel the need to take a position on a compromise that has not yet been reached.
''There's a dilemma in looking for a second resolution because now no one has to decide anything until they see whether there is one,'' said Dan Goure of the Lexington Institute.
US officials and their allies hope that at the last minute a plan to send Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi president, into exile will emerge or a sudden uprising of Iraqi troops will topple him.
But given how unlikely that scenario is, Bush is scheduled to press his case in the coming weeks with several heads of state -- and potential allies against Iraq -- following his meeting with the Polish prime minister at the White House yesterday. Powell is seeing ''a nonstop parade of senior leaders from most of the allied countries,'' giving him a chance to elaborate on the evidence he presented to the United Nations and, administration officials hope, generate momentum for a new resolution, an attack on Iraq, or both.
The message from the administration is that ''We're open to a second resolution, it's justified, but meanwhile, we're preparing for war,'' said Jim Steinberg, a former National Security Council adviser in the Clinton administration. ''They are going to . . . move on parallel tracks.''
In the meantime, US armed forces continue to flow into the region, and more deployment orders are expected before a war begins.
Signs that a conflict is imminent would include seeing the UN inspectors leaving Iraq, the US government removing nonessential personnel from the region, and the arrival of General Tommy R. Franks, the Central Command chief who would conduct a war against Iraq, at the forward headquarters in Qatar where he would run the battle. Central Command had previously indicated that the headquarters would be completed by early February, and a Central Command official said that ''preparations for the forward headquarters are proceeding on schedule.''
The bulk of Franks's senior staff, including General John P. Abizaid, one of his two deputies, is already in the region.
Security specialists are closely monitoring troop deployments to determine when a strike could start. But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's deployment orders are harder to read than most because they are not the traditional large movements of troops, a defense official said. That has left US allies, and potential foes, guessing about how close the two sides are to war.
''He tends to cut them up into much smaller pieces and do small deployment orders with small numbers of forces at a time,'' the official said of Rumsfeld. ''So it's a little different to read what is a significant step and what isn't.''
The Third and Fourth Infantry Divisions have received deployment orders, as have several hundred soldiers from V Corps, which would provide ground support in the event of an attack. Patrick Garrett of GlobalSecurity.org, a Virginia-based defense think tank, said that the equipment for the Fourth Infantry Division -- which uses the most cutting-edge tanks -- remains undeployed. Consequently, the division's equipment for serious warfare must still be transported to the region, which could take three weeks.
Three aircraft carrier battle groups -- those of the USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Constellation, and USS Harry S. Truman -- are already in the region, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group sailed for the region Tuesday. Four more carrier battle groups -- those of the USS Kitty Hawk, the USS Carl Vinson, the USS Nimitz, and the USS George Washington -- are ''in various degrees of readiness, ready to be called upon if needed,'' one military source said. The farthest away is the Nimitz, which is in San Diego and could take up to four weeks to reach the region.
The French have deployed their sole nuclear aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, to the eastern Mediterranean, leading some analysts to believe that they will sign on to a battle. ''The assumption down here in the bunker is that the French don't want to be left out of the party,'' said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.
Two US Marines Amphibious Task Forces are en route. One passed through the Suez Canal Tuesday night, while the other, from the US West Coast, is expected to arrive in the region within a week. A Marine Amphibious Readiness Group arrived in the region yesterday.
Tens of thousands of troops -- the figure is expected to reach 150,000 within a week or two -- are deployed in the region, and are training.
''The emphasis right now is for our troops that are already in the theater of operations to continue to hone the training edge,'' said Colonel Joe Curtin, an Army spokesman, who was careful to note that no decision has been made on whether to go to war. ''We do that every day. As new forces flow in, they quickly acclimate to the environment.''
Copyright © 2003, Globe Newspaper Company
