Canadian Press February 05, 2003
Powell adds weight to case against Saddam, but proof remains circumstantial
By Robert Russo
WASHINGTON (CP) - There was no smoking gun, but U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell did deliver some tantalizing tape.
Scratchy, but discernible audio intercepts that suggest Iraqi Republican Guard officers were hiding evidence from United Nations weapons inspectors provided the most drama and the red meat of Powell's presentation Wednesday to the UN Security Council. Powell, the Bush administration's "reluctant warrior" who persuaded the president to take the conflict to the world body, provided no Adlai Stevenson moment: code for walloping, irrefutable proof of Iraqi menace.
Stevenson, the U.S. ambassador to the UN during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, dramatically proved the Soviet envoy a liar by confronting him with vivid photographs of nuclear rockets in Cuba.
But during a long, at times tedious, 90-minute address, hearing the Iraqi officers discuss deleting references to "nerve agents" in reports and secreting away "modified vehicles" made for a compelling spectacle.
The tapes suggested that at a minimum, Iraq was obfuscating. At worst, Saddam Hussein is deliberately hiding chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
"It really shows that Iraq is involved in an active effort to circumvent UN regulations," said Patrick Garrett, an analyst at Globalsecurity.org.
A prosecutor's case is often built incrementally, with myriad details piling up to lead juries towards a conclusion of guilt. Experts said Powell did add some weight to the Bush administration's charge that Iraq is deliberately thwarting UN inspectors.
But the central question remains: Would Iraq's disarmament be best achieved by a war "within weeks" as President George W. Bush wants or by a continuation of the inspections process?
The United States still hasn't proved a case for war, said Charles Pena, a defence expert at the conservative Cato Institute.
"Powell provided even more evidence affirming what we already know: that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons and continues to pursue development of nuclear weapons," Pena said.
"But whether Iraq has or doesn't have weapons of mass destruction completely misses the more important and fundamental point that Iraq does not have any military capability that directly threatens the United States and would absolutely require pre-emptive U.S. military action."
Powell atttempted to tie a knot between Saddam and Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida organization - a powerful element in convincing still skeptical Americans in particular of the need to topple the Iraqi dictator.
He went further than expected on this. Powell said an al-Qaida operative, Abu Musab Zarqawi, was being harboured by the Iraqis and was directing a network which had already tried to poison European countries with ricin. This was a fresh allegation.
But plenty of countries - including Canada - have had al-Qaida operatives within their borders. That's still no cause to declare war, Pena said.
"No case has been made that Iraq supported al-Qaida in the planning, financing, or operation of the Sept. 11 attacks. Thus, the case against Iraq remains essentially unchanged. The only thing different is the messenger."
Powell's message was undercut somewhat by a British defence intelligence document leaked to the BBC that indicated Saddam and bin Laden are "unlikely bedfellows."
"While there has been contact between al-Qaida and the Iraqi regime in the past, we believe that any fledgling relationship foundered due to mistrust and incompatible ideology," the document said.
The satellite photos of activity at chemical sites are not damning to the eyes of a layman, but they are certainly suspicious, Garrett said.
"Pictures of the chemical de-contamination truck outside the facility were the most compelling for us," he said. "There's no reason to have that kind of equipment unless you're up to something nefarious."
His organization was still studying high-resolution images of the satellite photos, but Garrett said he believed them to be authentic.
"People who interpret these images aren't known to lie. There are too many people on the outside like us who could call them on it."
There was some re-packaging of material that was already known.
Drawings of alleged mobile biological laboratories were not new. CIA documents referred to them last year. There was interesting intelligence Powell put forward from witness and defectors - referred to as "human intelligence" - but by their nature, these reports are open to challenge.
The significance of Iraqi procurement and possession of aluminium tubes is, as Powell admitted, is a subject of deep debate.
The Bush administration believes they were obtained to produce enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. The inspectors don't agree.
"All of the elements of Powell's presentation were circumstantial, but when you add them all together they make for a very persuasive case," Garrett said.
Copyright © 2003, The Canadian Press
