National Post January 30, 2003
U.S. expects a dozen allies to join campaign against Iraq:
'Coalition of the willing': Britain, Australia alone are committed to sending troops
By Jan Cienski
WASHINGTON - The "coalition of the willing" the United States hopes to assemble for its campaign against Iraq could include up to a dozen countries, though only a handful are likely to contribute troops for the front line.
The list of countries that have offered diplomatic support to the United States is long, and several have agreed to allow U.S. access to facilities within their borders.
So far only two look sure to provide troops that could come into harm's way, Britain and Australia.
Britain has about 30,000 soldiers on the way and Australia is sending a transport ship, special forces and about a dozen F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets. The Czech Republic and Poland have small groups of specialized troops in the area as well. That number may increase if the UN Security Council backs an armed attack on Iraq, providing political cover for other countries -- including Canada -- to provide manpower as well as best wishes.
In his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night, Mr. Bush made clear the United States welcomes allies but will act without them if necessary. In order to present an attack as an expression of international outrage at Iraq's refusal to come clean about its weapons of mass destruction, Washington needs to illustrate other countries are willing to join the alliance.
"The United States would want anybody on board at this point," said Patrick Garrett, an analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, a military think-tank. "But when the administration talks about a coalition against Iraq, it's pretty much people allowing the U.S. to use their bases. When it comes to fighting, it will be really only Britain and Australia and maybe Spain."
Every Arab nation on the Persian Gulf, including Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, is either on board politically or has offered use of its bases, crucial for the U.S. military, which needs local staging points to launch an invasion.
Even the skittish Saudis have reportedly given permission to use Prince Sultan Air Base, currently used to patrol the southern no-fly zone over Iraq, although the extent of the co-operation is still unclear.
Jordan, another neighbour of Iraq, is officially keeping its distance and will likely sit out even a diplomatic anti-Iraq alliance, but is thought willing to provide secret facilities for special forces to enter western Iraq.
Turkey, Iraq's neighbour to the north, has been under intense pressure to co-operate with U.S. plans, which include sending troops into northern Iraq to secure vital oil fields. Reports this week indicated Turkey would allow up to 20,000 troops to pass through Turkey into Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq.
The U.S. troops will be based at the Incirlik base in Turkey's southern province of Adana and at bases in the southeastern provinces of Batman and Diyarbakir, according to the pro-establishment daily Milliyet.
Other Islamic friends include Uzbekistan, now a close U.S. ally, which has pledged its support for war.
In Europe, Germany and France were denounced as being part of "old Europe" by Donald Rumsfeld, the U.S. Secretary of Defence, for their vocal opposition to a military assault.
Their partners in reluctance include Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Austria and Luxembourg.
But even these countries are likely to show some support in the event of war. When the United States moves its troops out of Germany, their bases will be protected by German forces and the move will be facilitated by German logistics.
Even French opposition is qualified. The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is heading toward the Gulf and French forces could swiftly be in place if Paris chooses.
"In the 13th hour, the French will probably come on board the way that they did in the Gulf War," said retired Rear Admiral Stephen Baker, an analyst with the Center for Defense Information in Washington.
As well as Britain, other potential European allies include Spain, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands and Lithuania, as well as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, part of Mr. Rumsfeld's pro-American new Europe.
Spain has agreed to allow the United States to use its bases as has Italy, whose Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, meets with Mr. Bush today after wobbling a bit on his commitment to join in a non-UN-approved war.
Earlier this month Franco Frattini, Italy's Foreign Minister, said: "Italy will support the United States in the unfortunate event of a war."
A chemical and biological warfare unit of the Czech military is already in Kuwait, although, embarrassingly, 27 members of the 250-man unit headed for home when their Defence Minister visited and said that those "who did not feel ready" for war could leave.
Poland is rapidly emerging as, in Mr. Bush's words, "the best friend we have in Europe," and has said it will back Washington.
"Poles are reliable allies," said Aleksander Kwasniewski, Poland's President. "If after all the talks and proceedings are held, and all other possibilities are exhausted, we will have to stand up and fight; we will do it."
Hungary is allowing U.S. forces to train up to 3,000 members of the Iraqi opposition at its Taszar military base.
The problem for most of the pro-American leaders in Europe is that public opinion is strongly opposed to war. Even in Britain, polls show 85% are against a war without UN backing and Tony Blair's Labour Party is splitting over the issue.
Canada is on the fence, a subject likely to be raised when Bill Graham, the Foreign Minister, meets today with Colin Powell, the U.S. Secretary of State. But with Canadian officers in Florida discussing logistics with their U.S. counterparts at Central Command who will be in charge of an invasion, the U.S. calculation is that Ottawa will be on board diplomatically, if not militarily.
Copyright © 2003, National Post
