The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Jan. 24, 2003
Getting Saddam may be difficult if war comes
By GEORGE EDMONSON
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer
WASHINGTON -- Secret bunkers. Deep tunnels. Clandestine airfields. Decoys and doubles. A moving target.
All are said to be in the survival kit of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. All -- and more -- are likely to come into play if the United States invades his country. While there is little doubt U.S. forces are superior to the Iraqi military, putting Saddam in the cross hairs could prove to be tough.
"It would be extremely difficult," said sociology professor Ayad Al-Qazzaz, an Iraqi native who teaches at California State University at Sacramento.
Stories about Saddam employing elaborate decoys, moving erratically among his many palaces and utilizing numerous doubles are true, said Con Coughlin, executive editor of London's Sunday Telegraph and author of "Saddam: King of Terror." "A motorcade will leave the presidential palace followed by another one followed by another one, and Saddam will leave by the back door."
A man who interviewed Saddam in one of his bunkers told of an elevator ride so deep that his ears popped, Coughlin said. "We are not talking a coal shed at the bottom of the garden; we're talking inverted skyscrapers."
Jeff Stein, a former U.S. Army intelligence officer and writer who coauthored "Saddam's Bombmaker" with a former Iraqi nuclear scientist, said Saddam and his inner circle probably have stashed money overseas and have suitcases full of gold beneath their beds. "He's prepared a long time for emergency escapes."
In an effort to block those routes, the United States is said to be employing high-tech weapons over Iraq. According to a recent USA Today report, spy satellites and a specially equipped airplane are listening in on official and military communications in Iraq.
He could go low-tech
"I think that our technical means are absolutely excellent," Stein said. "The thing is that, like Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein knows that they're excellent and can use means to defeat them. For example, going low-tech."
Edward Peck, former chief of mission to Iraq and deputy director of the White House Task Force on Terrorism during President Ronald Reagan's administration, described how Saddam might employ simple techniques to vanish.
"He shaves off his mustache, you wouldn't even recognize him," Peck said. "He puts on a jalaba, a galabeya [traditional Arabic dress] and, poof, he's disappeared if he wants to."
The ability of fugitives bin Laden, head of the al-Qaida network blamed by the United States for the Sept. 11 attacks, and Mullah Mohammad Omar, head of the Taliban that sheltered al-Qaida, to elude U.S. forces that invaded Afghanistan hangs over much of the discussion of Saddam.
"I think one thing that you have to keep in mind from the very beginning is that despite what the military says about the capabilities of the technology -- and it is quite good -- there are two individuals we've been looking for for nearly a year and a half and have yet to get them," said Patrick Garrett, an associate at GlobalSecurity.org.
The difficulty of catching one person has been pointed out by administration officials such as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who also emphasize that the war against terrorism is not focused on one person.
Such sentiments are nothing new
In 1993, the United States determined that Iraq's intelligence service was responsible for an attempt on the life of former President George Bush, and America launched missiles at Iraq in retaliation. Les Aspin, defense secretary at that time, was asked why Saddam was not the specific object of the attack.
"It's very difficult to target a single individual," Aspin replied. "It's very difficult to capture a single individual."
A scarier option
Robert Gates, deputy national security adviser during the 1991 Gulf War, told the Los Angeles Times in 1993 that the first Bush administration considered the earlier case of Panama's Manuel Noriega in deciding not to go after Saddam. When U.S. forces went after Noriega, he disappeared for days before seeking asylum and later surrendering. v"We were all a little shaped by that experience. . . . I think there was a general feeling that it would not be difficult for Saddam to flee Baghdad, and it would be very difficult for us to try and find him. So you'd end up potentially occupying much of Iraq and then having to deal with the consequences of that," Gates told the newspaper.
But some say that, regardless of the rhetoric, a war in Iraq without a demonstrable finale for Saddam could present problems.
"If you can't put his head on a pike, you're going to have his supporters, who are going to live and fight based on the assumption he's still alive," said Joseph Wilson, deputy chief of mission in Iraq from 1988 to 1991 and the last U.S. official to meet with Saddam.
Another possibility, Wilson said, is an increased likelihood that Saddam "will use every weapon in his arsenal to defend himself," because he has no incentive to do otherwise. Those could include creating humanitarian disasters, trying to draw Israel into a broader war and deploying whatever weapons of mass destruction he possesses, Wilson said.
The United States could find assistance in the way Saddam views the world, according to several experts.
"I really don't think he has a full understanding of the gravity of what is going on," Al-Qazzaz said. "So he has a tunnel vision. And when you have a tunnel vision, you are going to exaggerate your power and you are going to underestimate your enemy."
Coughlin said he does not think Saddam would go into exile or give up and will go into military action believing he can win.
"Almost like Hitler," Coughlin said, "he won't actually realize he's defeated until the very last minute."
Copyright © 2003, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
