Lebanon Daily News [Pennsylvania] January 3, 2003
The wisdom of talk
The United States is moving slowly toward military action in Iraq. The pieces of the military puzzle are being put in place to end Saddam Hussein's reign in Baghdad. There's still a chance that diplomacy will win the day. There's a chance that the Iraqis were telling the truth about their weapons of mass destruction. We didn't say it was a high-percentage chance.
The United States is also watching North Korea. The austere, Communist nation has ousted U.N. officials who had been watching over the nation's nuclear program. They have also begun putting old reactors into service, and they're not shy about saying that development of weapons is part of their plan. With such blatant pronouncements, North Korea would seem to be squarely in the sights of United States military power. Not so, however. It's diplomacy first for the U.S. and North Korea.
There are many reasons for this. Iraq and Saddam are far more isolated than North Korea, which is snugged up against its neighbor and ally, China. Iraq is more reachable for U.S. military assets. Bases in Turkey, in Diego Garcia, in the Mediterranean and in moderate Arab nations in the Persian Gulf allow the U.S. many avenues of attack.
Not so in North Korea. Yes, there are many U.S. ground troops in place, and there are many bases from which to strike. But the presence of China and significant limitations in other available military strike points make North Korea a more difficult strategic problem for U.S. generals. There is also this: The North Korean military is viewed, quite rightly, as a formidable foe. The Iraqi military is not -- from past experience.
The Washington Post recently offered a snapshot of Iraqi military forces -- 424,000 ground troops, 2,200 tanks and 2,050 artillery pieces. There is an air force, but considering its previous track record, there's no reason to have much concern about it. Dangerous, yes. But given American air superiority, if not outright supremacy, like that enjoyed in Afghanistan, the Iraqis will be pulverized from above if we decide to open hostilities.
Don't expect anything like that in North Korea. On the Web site globalsecurity.org, North Korea's military might is detailed as 1.1 million ground troops, with another 7 million reserves. There are 3,800 tanks to contend with, and 11,200 artillery pieces. There are also 12 regiments of interceptor fighter aircraft and eight ground-attack regiments in the North Korean arsenal. Not to mention potential weapons of mass destruction of their own. They even have about two dozen submarines.
Those are numbers that can't be ignored. The U.S. doesn't want North Korea to become a nuclear power. But it is very unlikely that it will undertake the kind of military flexing and warlike rhetoric with the Asian rogue state that it has with Saddam. Considering the nation's location and its military strength, negotiations -- and pressure on China to rein in its smaller but belligerent ally -- are the more prudent course.
Copyright © 2003
