USA Today January 2, 2003
N. Korea, Iraq pose different threats
By John Diamond
WASHINGTON -- Though North Korea and Iraq are charter members of President Bush's "axis of evil," differences in their warmaking abilities and potential harm to neighbors may be why the White House is considering invading Iraq but downplaying confrontation with North Korea.
Though U.S. officials consider both nations dangerous and unpredictable, planners say Iraq would probably succumb quickly to a U.S. invasion, while North Korea's huge military could put up a long and destructive fight.
The central issues in both cases are weapons of mass destruction in the hands of erratic dictators and the threat to important allies -- Saudi Arabia and Israel in the case of Iraq, South Korea and Japan in the case of North Korea. But from that starting point, the differences mount.
North Korea probably has one or two nuclear weapons. Iraq very likely does not. North Korea makes and exports missiles that could be used to deliver weapons of mass destruction. And North Korea's desperate need for hard currency has raised concerns in Washington that Pyongyang could export other weapons technology, possibly including chemical weapons.
Iraq, despite an arms embargo, is an importer of these weapons and, in the Bush administration's view, could use them. Iraq has oil money it can use to expand its arsenal. North Korea is broke and uses weapons exports as a source of cash.
The United States and its allies fought North Korea and China to a draw in the Korean War five decades ago, ending a bloody conflict with a tense cease-fire that continues to this day. A U.S.-led coalition defeated Iraq one decade ago but left Saddam Hussein's regime in power, resulting in continued tension that holds the potential for a resumption of conflict.
North Korea's military is nearly three times larger than Iraq's, and it is concentrated in a much smaller area. More than half of North Korea's army of 1 million soldiers is positioned close to the Demilitarized Zone, which separates North and South Korea. Most of Iraq's army of 375,000 is concentrated around Baghdad in a defensive posture.
North Korea poses a greater threat to launch a surprise attack on a key U.S. ally than Iraq does. U.S. spy satellites would detect Iraqi preparations for an attack on Kuwait or Saudi Arabia well in advance, as they did in the mid-1990s. North Korea's deployment at the DMZ, its mountainous terrain and a network of caves that can conceal its forces increase the danger of surprise.
Military experts say a U.S. invasion of Iraq would be swift and victorious. War on the Korean peninsula, because of the more difficult terrain and the larger size of North Korea's military, could be more protracted and devastating to both sides.
U.S. war plans for Iraq call for deployment of no more than 250,000 troops. The Pentagon's plan for war in Korea would involve a force of nearly 700,000 troops beyond the 37,000 permanently stationed in South Korea.
U.S. intelligence considers both North Korea and Iraq likely to use chemical weapons in the face of war against the United States. The danger posed by North Korea is greater because Seoul, South Korea, a city of more than 10 million, lies within range of about 500 170mm guns and 240mm multiple-rocket launchers, according to John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, a military think tank.
Though the weather and terrain are more favorable for U.S. tanks and aircraft in Iraq than in North Korea, Iraq is almost completely landlocked, making war against Saddam's regime a complicated affair requiring involvement and cooperation by neighboring countries.
North Korea's long coastline makes it directly accessible to U.S. naval and amphibious forces, and South Korea would be willing to cooperate with the United States to repel any invasion by the North.
A communist country about the size of Mississippi, North Korea has been pouring its limited resources into maintaining a huge military force. An invasion of South Korea would probably involve the use of commando forces, chemical weapons and massed, mobile artillery fire. Preventing such an attack could involve a decision by the United States and South Korea to launch a pre-emptive assault.
Iraq, a Muslim country about the size of California, is in no position to invade its neighbors. Its one opportunity for strategic surprise lies in a suspected arsenal of about 20 inaccurate Scud missiles that might be armed with chemical or biological weapons and that could reach Israel.
Iraq and North Korea have buried important weapons deep in hardened bunkers that would be difficult to find and even more difficult to destroy. In part because of that challenge, U.S. military planning for both countries involves campaigns aimed at toppling their regimes.
Copyright © 2003 Gannett Company, Inc.
