The Sunday Times [London] December 22, 2002
US hawks say we'll get to Baghdad within two days
By Tony Allen-Mills, Nicholas Rufford and David Cracknell
US military planners are preparing airstrikes on Iraq of such unparalleled intensity that some senior Pentagon officials believe that a ground war could be won in two days.
A surprise combination of ferocious bombardment and a near-simultaneous advance on Baghdad is intended to cause Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime to "implode".
The Pentagon's plans for a lightning overland thrust from Kuwait are based on the belief that Mr Hussein expects a prolonged air campaign, followed by a cautious advance.
By throwing the US's elite airborne and infantry forces into a race for Baghdad, possibly within hours of the first bombing, Washington hopes to deliver a crushing psychological shock that will shatter Iraqi resistance.
The plan was inspired by the conviction of the Pentagon's civilian leadership that Mr Hussein's authority is "as solid as the Berlin Wall".
Deputy US Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz said recently that Mr Hussein presided over "a brittle, oppressive regime that might break easily".
The high-risk elements of the plan -- in particular the danger that a premature advance might be vulnerable to a counter-attack -- are believed to have provoked last week's warnings by US commanders that the Pentagon's civilian leadership is underestimating the Iraqi threat and failing to plan for worst-case scenarios.
Experts close to the Pentagon say these might include the use of human shields to block a US advance. Former Pentagon planner Daniel Goure suggests that Mr Hussein could create a refugee crisis by forcing up to 4 million people out of Baghdad. "He can burn houses, go door-to-door and organise it very quickly as the Serbians did in Kosovo," Mr Goure said.
General Eric Shinseki of the US army and US marines commandant General James Jones have expressed concern about sending a fast-moving ground force to Baghdad without tens of thousands of reinforcements. General Jones said he did not align himself with "folks around town who seem to think that this is preordained to be a very easy military operation".
Leaks of invasion plans have emphasised the need for speed and tactical surprise. According to officials, some armoured units would "charge across Iraq" without stopping to let slower-moving units catch up.
John Pike, one of Washington's foremost military analysts, has calculated that an advancing US force led by Abrams M-1 tanks and protected by heavy air support could cover the 480km from the Kuwaiti border to Baghdad at 40-50kmh.
"They will be in the suburbs of Baghdad at the end of the second day," he said. "It's all going to unfold so quickly that Saddam's ears will still be ringing from the sound of the bombs when US tanks start showing up." Dr Paul Moorcraft, a former Ministry of Defence policy expert who edits the London-based Defence Review, predicts a ground war lasting "a maximum of four days".
The US military was up to five times stronger than at the time of the 1991 Gulf War, while the Iraqis were a third of their Gulf War strength, he said. "I estimate that only 10,000 Iraqi troops will even think about fighting back."
Both American and British planners believe that forces loyal to Mr Hussein intend to fall back quickly to Baghdad, raising the prospect of a long siege. "We would not be in any hurry to dislodge him," said a senior Whitehall source. "Once Saddam loses control of the countryside and the oil, his support will quickly collapse."
US officials hope that once it is clear that his situation is desperate, Mr Hussein will either try to flee or will be shot by one of his generals.
The British position towards Mr Hussein has hardened in recent days, with officials beginning to shed their previous reluctance to be drawn into comments on the need for "regime change".
Under pressure from Labour MPs, Tony Blair has preferred to focus on weapons of mass destruction rather than Mr Hussein himself.
© Copyright 2002 The Sunday Times
