Financial Times (London) December 12, 2002
US 'needs weeks' to be ready for war
Military Deployment Analysts Say Build-up of Troops and Equipment within Striking Distance or Iraq Has Slowed:
By PETER SPIEGEL
The US military build-up in the Gulf appears to have slowed, and the Pentagon would still need weeks - perhaps more than a month - to mount a full-scale invasion of Iraq if such an attack were ordered, military analysts said this week.
Experts say that if pressed, the US could begin smaller-scale attacks as troops and military hardware were shipped to the region, but they regard such a scenario as unlikely, given the expected scale of any invasion and the lead time needed to transport military hardware.
The most recent outward sign that the build-up is levelling off was this week's departure of the giant aircraft carrier USS George Washington and supporting ships from the Mediterranean. The Washington is scheduled to return to its home port of Norfolk, Virginia, having reached the end of its six-month tour of duty. But there had been speculation in military circles that its tour could be extended so that four or five carrier groups would be in the region in case of an attack. Commander Bob Ross, a spokesman for the US Navy's 6th Fleet in Gaeta, Italy, said yesterday that the Washington could quickly be turned back if needed, within about 30 days of its arrival in Norfolk - expected around December 20.
"It is normal policy for the navy that when a carrier battle group returns, it becomes the 'ready group'," Cmdr Ross said. "If the nation needs a carrier group, that's the one that's called upon."
The USS Harry Truman carrier group left Norfolk last week to replace the Washington, and the USS Constellation recently left Singapore and could reach the Arabian Sea by the weekend, according to Patrick Garrett, who has been tracking carrier group movements for GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-based military think-tank.
The Constellation is scheduled to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, whose tour of duty is due to end next month. If the Lincoln returns home on schedule, it would leave only two or three groups - the USS Kitty Hawk is on manoeuvres in the Pacific - within striking distance of Iraq.
More important, military analysts say the US lacks hard-to-move military hardware - particularly 63-ton M1 Abrams battle tanks - in the region. There are perhaps two army brigades on or near the Iraqi border, but analysts say an attack on the scale thought likely - which would include as many as 250,000 troops - would require about four divisions, each made up of three brigades.
"If all you want to do is jump into Iraq and fire a few rounds to make a statement, that's pretty easy to do," says Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "The point of starting this war, however, is overthrowing Saddam's regime."
The apparent slowdown in deployments comes as the US has ratcheted down its rhetoric in recent days. The White House and the Pentagon have both made it clear they may need several weeks to analyse Iraq's 12,000-page declaration to the United Nations on its weapons of mass destruction, and have indicated that the document alone is unlikely to serve as a pretext for war.
In addition, the US has yet to win firm commitments from some countries in the region where it will require basing rights. Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been publicly equivocal about using air bases in their country to launch attacks on Iraq.
Mr O'Hanlon estimates that there are approximately 300 aircraft on the ground in the region, far fewer than the approximately 1,000 that would be needed for an attack. In addition, only about 10 air bases are active in the region - most as part of Iraqi no-fly zone operations - about half of what would be needed.
The US Air Force has, however, begun to prepare moving elements of the 509th bomb wing, which includes B-2 stealth bombers, to the Indian Ocean island base of Diego Garcia. Tom Leahy, controller of defence contractor American Spaceframe, said his company had delivered two B-2 shelters to the Air Force, which were installed at Diego Garcia recently.
© Copyright 2002 The Financial Times Limited
