Reuters December 8, 2002
U.S. Says Homebound Carrier Is a Routine Rotation
By Douglas Hamilton
DOHA (Reuters) - U.S. military officials refused on Sunday to be drawn on deployments in and out of the potential Iraq war zone, insisting they were routine.
One aircraft carrier battle group that military analysts calculated would stay on for overtime in the region if war were imminent, the USS George Washington, is winding up its tour on schedule and is due back in the United States by December 20.
"It is on schedule to return to its home port of Norfolk, Virginia in mid-December," Commander Bob Ross told Reuters from 6th Fleet headquarters in Naples, Italy.
"Its state of readiness is at a peak. This is normal," he added, but declined comment on a report that crews were being "kept together for 30 days" on standby in case of action.
The carrier group USS Harry S. Truman with about 11,000 men is on its way to take over operations in the Mediterranean, as routinely scheduled. Globally, five groups are at sea.
With a 12,000-page Iraqi dossier headed for Vienna and New York Sunday to be scrutinized by arms experts, analysts say the contents could spell the difference between war and peace. The analysis is expected to take several weeks.
INFORMATION HAS DIMINISHED
In its latest assessment, the military Web site GlobalSecurity.Org says information has diminished to the point where there is now too little data for a highly reliable profile of current U.S. deployments.
It reckons there are about 44,000 personnel -- of which one quarter are army and the rest sailors and airmen -- and 370 combat aircraft, including European Command forces in Turkey.
This compares with averages over recent years of 20,000 to 25,000 troops and some 200 aircraft, it says.
In a caveat to its "order of battle" assessment, GlobalSecurity.Org says there are "evidently significant gaps in unit identifications, as well as non-trivial uncertainties as to numbers of specific types of aircraft."
"The presence of significant numbers of civilian contractor personnel at various facilities in the region further complicates accounting for total personnel numbers."
Without elaborating, Global Security analysts also say it is possible that the 3rd Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division will return from Kuwait to the United States.
Before General Tommy Franks' Central Command took on Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan late last year, there were approximately 6,200 Air Force personnel stationed in the Central Command (CENTCOM) Area of Responsibility.
"As many as 17,500 Air Force personnel may be currently stationed in the CENTCOM and EUCOM areas responsible for operations against Iraq, operating a total of about 280 aircraft of all types," says the assessment, dated December 9.
"As of late-November 2002 there was one carrier battle group in the area, and one amphibious group, for a total of slightly less than 20,000 naval personnel."
According to the analysts, satellite imagery of the harbor at the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia shows two dozen ships loaded with military gear were still at anchor in mid-November.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is due to visit Qatar and states in the Horn of Africa later this week.
He will also take a look at the first test-run of CENTCOM's new mobile headquarters outside Qatar's capital Doha, where about 1,000 officers of Franks' command will switch on a war game Monday designed to probe their readiness and ability to adjust to the unexpected.
© Copyright 2002 Reuters
