ABCnews.com November 18, 2002
Blix vs. Iraq
By Geraldine Sealey
Nov. 18 - The "generals" couldn't be more different. One is a notorious dictator, known for his acts of brutality. The other is a bookish Swedish lawyer-turned-diplomat.
Both men and their armies have tough missions ahead of them, but only one has the international community's stamp of approval and the world's most sophisticated equipment to help sniff out suspected caches of outlawed weaponry.
It's D-Day for Hans Blix and his U.N. army of weapons inspectors. An advance team arrived in Baghdad today after an absence enforced by Blix's opponent, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Speaking to reporters upon his arrival, Blix laid out the primary aim of his inspections team. "Let me tell you that we have come here for one single reason and that is because the world wants to have assurances that there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq," he said.
Four years have passed since weapons inspectors last worked in Iraq, leaving ample time for Saddam to devise new ways to dodge weapons checks. The inspectors, on the other hand, will work under strict deadlines and face what the U.S. government calls Saddam's "denial and deception."
On paper, the latest U.N. Security Council resolution gives inspectors unrestricted rights to search unlimited locations, including Saddam's presidential compounds. In the past, though, Iraqi officials frustrated inspectors' efforts, making it impossible for them to do their work. If Iraq resorts to such tactics again, it could mean war.
Under the U.N. resolution, the team is to begin inspections by Dec. 23, but Blix says preliminary inspections likely will resume Nov. 27.
Iraq has until Dec. 8 to disclose information about its weapons programs, which inspectors will use as a checklist for its work, then begin full-scale inspections.
Blix then has 60 days to report back to the U.N. Security Council with his findings.
The task for Blix's team won't be easy. Iraq contains 432,162 square kilometers of land within its borders - and virtually every inch of it could possibly contain evidence of weapons of mass destruction.
"You basically have a small number of cops who are investigating a very large, large criminal enterprise," said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org. "The problem in Iraq is it is a very big country. There are a lot of places to hide [weapons of mass destruction] and a lot of people to hide them."
The United Nations will deploy 250 inspectors to comb through sites ranging from factories to medical laboratories to presidential palaces. More than 1,000 sites are on the inspectors' list, and 100 sites are labeled a top priority. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which will look for nuclear weapons, will work alongside inspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission.
"This offers a last opportunity for Iraq to declare what they have," Blix told a news conference ahead of his trip to Baghdad. "An omission can be very serious."
Iraq maintains it has no illegal weapons of mass destruction.
From Faxes to Scanners
The United Nations usually keeps inspectors' identities under wraps, so little is known about the individuals who make up the teams.
Generally, though, the inspectors are chosen from at least 44 countries and a range of fields with expertise pertaining to missiles, chemical and biological warfare and nuclear weaponry. They can be chemists, physicists, engineers, microbiologists, data analysts, and even linguists.
For the selection process, U.N. member states identify suitable experts willing to join the roster of inspectors. Those chosen undergo a five-week training course in Vienna, Austria, including cultural sensitivity training and education on relevant Security Council resolutions.
In an open letter published on an Australian government Web site, one inspector provided insight into his work as chief inspector for the ballistic missiles area. "It will be my responsibility to lead the inspection teams in Iraq, and to be the point of contact for interaction with the Iraqi authorities," wrote Australian research scientist Bill Jolley, who is on loan from the Australian military.
He continued: "In practice, I will divide my time between Iraq and New York, probably spending three to four weeks in turn at both locations, since I am responsible for both the actual inspections and the planning of inspections carried out in New York. Personnel in the inspection teams, drawn from the worldwide roster, will probably do tours of three months or longer."
About 80 inspectors are expected to be in Iraq at any given time, with additional support staff including security guards, doctors, interpreters and pilots, according to the United Nations. Inspectors will travel in U.N. jeeps and helicopters and will sleep in Iraqi hotels.
Despite the barriers they face, the U.N. teams have technology going for them. Just as cell phones, PDAs and laptops have evolved, leading to smaller, faster and more efficient gadgets, so have the tools designed to help inspectors do their work since they left Baghdad in 1998.
"In general, the equipment gets better, the information process gets better," said former weapons inspector David Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security. In the past, Albright said, "Documents would be faxed and translated from Arabic to English and then everyone was dealing with paper copies. Now, they're scanned."
And scanners pale compared to some of the other newly available technology.
Hand-Held Detection of Germs, Nukes
For detecting biological weapons materials, a hand-held device can now act as a portable laboratory to quickly identify smallpox, anthrax and other germ agents. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California produces a 2-pound device called the Hand-Held Advanced Nucleic Acid Analyzer that can recognize a microbe by its DNA and produces results in about 20 minutes.
"We're now able to take it into the field and use it more reliably than we've ever been able to do," said Paige O. Stoutland, a Livermore counterterrorism official.
Radiation detectors, used to spot nuclear materials, are also getting smaller. More importantly, experts say, they are more capable of picking up evidence of plutonium or uranium even if the materials have been moved.
In the late 1990s, U.N. inspectors often arrived at suspected weapons sites to see a convoy of trucks pulling away - with the evidence inside, inspectors suspected. This time, increased technology may help inspectors detect Iraqi deception.
"We should be able, because of the refinement in the technology to find those trace elements. With radioactive material you can go back a long way because it leaves a very definite signature," said a former weapons inspector, retired Army Brig. Gen. John Reppert said.
Satellite technology could also help catch Iraqis in the act of hiding or moving evidence. The resolution calls for unrestricted use and landing of fixed and rotary-winged aircraft, including manned and unmanned reconnaissance vehicles, which experts think will be quite useful.
"When they get to a specific site and want to know where buildings are, they'll also want to know what's behind the trees and on another side of the hill," Pike said. "While one set of inspectors are going in the front door, they'll want to see what's going out the back door."
Inspectors Experience, Iraqi Mindset of Concern
But not everyone thinks improved technology will provide a quick-fix for the problems that previously faced weapons inspectors in Iraq.
Technology has not improved so much that inspectors will be able to circumvent Saddam's deception in every case, says one former inspector.
"We know that they developed and produced biological weapons mostly based on anthrax . so if you go into a place and find anthrax, what does that mean?" said Raymond Zilinskas, a former biological weapons inspector and senior scientist at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif. "Whether or not the inspectors are successful will hinge on the degree of cooperation from the Iraqis."
Albright and some other former inspectors see personnel as a key potential problem. After conflicts between the Iraqis and U.N. inspectors in the late 1990s, the United Nations called for new recruits. So far, the new batch of inspectors is untested.
"That could screw up things more than anything else," Albright said. "Inspectors need to be confident and experienced. You need enough information in the hands of inspectors to nail the Iraqis or show they are compliant."
But other experts say it is how the Iraqis behave, not the experience of the inspectors, that will determine the outcome of inspections.
"Either the Iraqis are going to cooperate or they're going to get blown up. I don't know that the training of the inspectors will make much difference," Pike said.
ABCNEWS' Martha Raddatz at the State Department contributed to this report.
© Copyright 2002 ABCnews
