Asia TimesNovember 14, 2002
Groundpounders to the war zone
By David Isenberg
It took over four months, but the war debate is over. No, not the question of whether or not to invade Iraq. The idea that the United States would not seek to invade Iraq was never seriously in doubt. But what was how to do it - whether to use either large numbers of ground forces or some variant of special operations forces combined with native opposition forces, plus air power, a la the Afghan model.
And the winner is ... the groundpounders, and General Tommy Franks, head of the US Central Command, which would run any military campaign against Iraq.
According to an article in the November 10 New York Times, the same paper to which details of the original war plan were leaked in early July, the plan, approved well before the UN Security Council's unanimous vote on November 8 to disarm Iraq, calls for massing 200,000 to 250,000 troops for attack by air, land and sea.
Such numbers push back the start of an invasion to next year. The US-based Global Security.org calculates that an invasion would begin not later than February 22. Previously, it had predicted that military operations could begin as early as November 28. The revised assessment takes into account the unanimous UN Security Council Resolution 1441, which gives Iraq fixed timelines for acknowledging the resolution by November 15, declaring its weapons programs by December 9, and setting a 60-day period for re-admitted UN weapons inspectors to report on progress.
While US conservatives publicly grumble about the UN, the Security Council resolution is actually helpful to the Bush administration. According to an analysis by military analyst William Arkin in the Los Angeles Times, "The inspections process will improve the political climate for eventual action and buy time for the Pentagon to get ready. The war that Bush and his team think is necessary and inevitable will thus come with the approval of both Congress and the UN. Meanwhile, one of the main practical obstacles to war with Iraq will have been dealt with: the enormous infrastructure needed to supply and sustain today's armed forces against Iraq is being constructed on the foundations of the system created for the war in Afghanistan."
According to the plan, United States and coalition forces could seize territory and operate out of forward bases in northern, western and southern Iraq. This is similar to the notion of the three-pronged attack described in the earlier war plan.
In western Iraq, troops would seek to prevent Iraqi missile attacks on Israel and other neighbors. In the northern Kurdish territory, where Iraqi opposition leaders say that the CIA and possibly Special Forces troops have already scouted out airfields, troops would set up staging and refueling bases. In the south, troops would move in from Kuwait to seize key facilities around the port of Basra.
The large number of forces tracks closely with a scenario outlined in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs, which called for an invasion force involving four to six divisions totaling 200,000 to 300,000 troops plus supporting troops, 700-1,000 planes and anywhere from one to five carrier battle groups.
Even with large numbers, though, the war is unlikely to be won easily or without consequences. A war game held on October 23 by the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution found that with "the deployment of an overwhelming force of nearly 300,000 troops, the US "won" the war. However, under the constrained political circumstances in which the United States was forced to fight the war, Iraq's counterattack efforts strained US capabilities and created problems elsewhere in the region deleterious to US interests."
But regardless of the total number of troops involved, military preparations for the war have been steadily continuing. The fact that deployments of personnel and equipment have been taking place while the UN Security Council debated the resolution shows how eager US military planners are to have all their pieces in place.
Currently, there are over 35,000 US soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines in the Persian Gulf area, and more are arriving. Most US troops are stationed in Kuwait, either in a series of desert tent camps strung along the Iraqi border or in Camp Doha, with an estimated 10,000 troops, which acts as the army command base. A few hundred are in Saudi Arabia and in Qatar.
In the desert near Kuwait's border with Iraq, military convoys and helicopters are sighted regularly. They are believed to be ferrying troops and equipment into the new "military zone" recently declared along the border. Covering almost a quarter of Kuwait, the zone has provided a closed arena for US troops to begin exercises before an invasion of Iraq. In early November a brigade combat team of the 3rd Infantry Division moved out of Camp Doha into the desert for a extensive series of exercises that will culminate in live firing by Abrams tanks later in the month.
Currently two armored brigades are known to be in the emirate, and Kuwaiti military sources say that since June the tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and other heavy equipment for one to two more armored brigades have arrived. This would allow a further 10,000 GIs to fly in, link up with the heavy equipment, and be ready for combat in 72 hours. Plans are under way to move the heavy equipment for another US division, to equip in excess of 18,000 troops, into Kuwait by December.
On November 6, Kuwait's Ministry of Defense confirmed that a refueling depot for helicopters and fighter jets was being built within the zone, along with a runway for aircraft carrying military freight. US aircraft are in Turkey's Incirlik airbase, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. B-2 bombers are also being moved to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Two US aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George Washington, are already in the region. Although the Lincoln and the Washington are scheduled to return home by the end of the year, their deployment could be extended by one month.
Another three, USS Constellation, USS Nimitz and USS Harry Truman, are expected to arrive in December and January, while the carrier USS Kitty Hawk slipped out of Japan late October for an undisclosed destination.
The USS Carl Vincent aircraft carrier group began training exercises well ahead of schedule last week and could be ready for deployment to the Gulf in January. The accelerated schedule means the US could have as many as five carrier groups available for an attack on Iraq early in the year.
Meanwhile, US army engineering units that might be sent to Iraq are receiving portable fold-out bridges, according to the Los Angeles Times. Such equipment indicates that, unlike Desert Storm in 1991, US forces may be preparing for a mass ground invasion of Iraq, which would require crossing the Euphrates River, which traverses the country.
Three US Navy cargo ships - USNS Bellatrix, USNS Bob Hope and USNS Fisher - have also been sent to US ports to take on heavy combat equipment, machinery and vehicles that may include possibly tanks and helicopters.
Plans have also been activated to call up retired merchant marine sailors to fill gaps in what appears to be a huge logistical transport operation to the Middle East by the US military that would involve around 50 chartered freighters.
According to Arkin, prior to September 11, 2001, OPLAN 1003-98, Central Command's blueprint for war with Iraq, calculated that 10 airfields and six seaports would be needed to sustain air, ground and naval forces. As the plan has evolved, force levels have grown and the requirement for airfields and seaports has risen to 18 and 13 respectively. The plan calls for more than 60,000 short tons in supplies a day, the equivalent of some 3,500 tractor-trailers driving the distance from Tampa, Florida, to Savannah, Georgia, every day - or 5,000 flights by C-130 Hercules cargo planes.
To help facilitate movement of all that, Kuwait has given blanket permission for the use of its airfields, ports and warehouses. US forces also have well-tended and continually expanded bases in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Beyond the Middle East, US bases in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and other parts of Central Asia add to the capabilities against Iraq. The advanced state of the US deployment leaves only a few last-minute touches before US attacks could begin. These include Stealth bombers taking off from their US bases, the rapid deployment of helicopter-borne soldiers, and the call-up of thousands of National Guard and reserve forces to cover for the departed troops.
On November 8, the Pentagon called for Army Reserve and National Guard commissioned and warrant officers to step forward for active duty. It wants at least 100,000 reservists available. Sources say not all the troops activated will be sent to Iraq, since thousands would be needed during a war to defend US installations abroad and potential terrorist targets in America.
In total, the Pentagon plans to eventually mobilize more than 250,000 reservists. The US has 870,000 military reservists who serve one weekend a month at bases near their homes, and two weeks a year on other assignments. It would take three weeks to a month to properly train and deploy more than 100,000 soldiers to various locations, Pentagon officials say.
Meanwhile US and UK forces continue to attack Iraq from the air. On November 7, they bombed two Iraqi air defense and command facilities near Al Kut, about 95 miles southeast of Baghdad. The jets fired precision-guided weapons at an air defense operations facility and integrated operations center.
In the UK, the press is reporting that a 15,000-strong fighting force will be mobilized in preparation for an invasion of Iraq. Military reservists were given formal notice to stand by for deployment to the Middle East. Overall, the main British force would be its First Armored Division. The British force will be led by the 7th Armoured Brigade - "Desert Rats" - and is expected to include at least 200 tanks. The main base is expected to be Kuwait. Along with its naval and air force personnel its total deployed force would be about 30,000.
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