Bloomberg October 30, 2002
Bush Seen Gaining Few Allies in Iraq War Without UN
Washington, Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration
says it is putting together a coalition of nations to provide
military, logistical and intelligence support for a potential war
with Iraq. That roster will be short, analysts said.
The coalition is mostly in place. It consists of U.S. and
U.K. troops with logistical support from a handful of other
nations, from Italy to some Gulf States. Even with United Nations
authorization, no other countries are likely to supply fighting
forces, said John Pike, a defense analyst with the Alexandria-
Virginia-based private research group Globalsecurity.org.
Attacking Iraq without the support of the UN, which President
George W. Bush says is a possibility, poses obstacles. Arab
countries would have trouble justifying participation, and the
U.S. would have to carry the cost of rebuilding Iraq after a war,
foreign policy experts said.
A U.S. decision to proceed without UN approval would result
in ``a very expensive, unpopular and potentially catastrophic
war,'' said Joe Cirincione, an analyst at the Washington-based
Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
``Even if the initial stages of the military operation go
well, the siege of Baghdad and the long-term occupation of Iraq
will spawn a new wave of anti-American terrorists, traumatize the
already fragile international economy, and drain billions from the
U.S. Treasury,'' Cirincione said.
Bush Lobbying
In the first Gulf War, the U.S. paid only $8 billion of the
$61 billion total cost of the conflict. Coalition partners paid
the rest.
Bush has been lobbying by telephone, speaking yesterday with
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, White House spokesman Ari
Fleischer said.
France, Russia and China, all veto-wielding members of the UN
Security Council, object to what they say is the implicit threat
of force in the resolution the U.S. has proposed laying out the
terms for weapons inspections.
The U.K. is the only permanent council member to say it will
join the U.S. if the UN talks stall.
The 15-member council was to resume talks on the U.S.
proposal today. Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, and
Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, were to meet today with Bush and National Security
Adviser Condoleezza Rice to discuss the matter, Fleischer said.
Germany Opposed
Secretary of State Colin Powell will meet today with German
Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, whose country is an outspoken
opponent of U.S. military action in Iraq.
U.S.-German relations were strained during Germany's election
campaign, when Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder promised not to
participate in any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Schroeder was re-
elected on Sept. 22.
U.S. officials decline to name countries that would
participate without the UN's endorsement in a coalition to rid
Iraq of weapons of mass destruction.
``We have a great many friends, partners and allies who see
the situation the same way we do,'' General Tommy Franks told
reporters yesterday. ``And I'll leave it at that.'' Franks heads
the U.S. Central Command, whose responsibility includes Iraq.
Other nations ``have indicated that if the UN Security
Council passes a new resolution, they will be with us,'' Deputy
Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in a speech Monday in
Nashville, Tennessee.
Military Bases in Region
The U.S. military has enough ground support through basing
rights in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, Pike said. In Saudi Arabia, U.S.
forces maintain a command and communications center at the Prince
Sultan Air Base that could be used to coordinate air strikes
against Iraq.
General Richard Myers, chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs, was in
Saudi Arabia yesterday for a planning meeting of U.S.-Saudi
military officials.
The Saudis have said U.S. use of the base should be tied to
UN support for an attack, so the U.S. has established a similar
capability in Qatar. Modular buildings and communications
equipment designed to replicate the functions of the Central
Command's headquarters in Tampa, Florida, will be shipped to Qatar
late next month, Franks told reporters.
Italy, Turkey, Jordan
Between 600 and 1,000 troops will operate the center in Qatar
during an exercise in early December, and there's been no decision
on whether the buildings and equipment will be returned to the
U.S., Franks said.
About 5,000 U.S. military personnel are based in Bahrain,
home of the Navy's 5th Fleet.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may back U.S.
military action even without a UN resolution. Berlusconi, at a
meeting in Copenhagen last month, sought European and Asian
support for Bush. Berlusconi has said he shares a ``very deep
friendship'' with Bush and bills himself as the No. 1 U.S. ally in
mainland Europe.
Italy's military may send 5,000 troops and a couple of
squadrons of aircraft if asked, said Michael O'Hanlon, an analyst
at the Brookings Institution.
Neither Turkey nor Jordan has said publicly whether they
would allow the use of their bases, Pike said.
Turkey's bases allow ready access to neighboring Iraq. Turkey
already has a NATO base that's used to monitor the ``no-fly zone''
over northern Iraq. Smaller U.S. air bases in the east can be used
to deploy ground troops, O'Hanlon said.
The U.S. would like to use Jordan as a base for an air strike
involving special operations forces or the 82nd Airborne Division;
they would open the war with attacks to destroy Iraq's ability to
hit Israel with chemical or biological weapons, Pike said.
Jordan has a 60-70 percent Palestinian population which
harbors ``significant'' anti-U.S. sentiment, said Warren Bass, a
Council on Foreign Relations analyst.
--Holly Rosenkrantz and Paul Basken in Washington, (202) 624-1884
or hrosenkrantz@bloomberg.net, with reporting by Richard Keil in
Washington, Steve Scherer in Rome and Iain Rogers in London.
Editors: Meszoly, *McQuillan, *Getler, Torday, H. Langan, Meszoly,
Schmick, McQuillan.
© Copyright 2002 Bloomberg
