NBC Nightly News October 24, 2002
War with Iraq will complicate matters if Iraq decides to attack Israel
TOM BROKAW, anchor: Now to our series, TARGET: IRAQ. And tonight, a worrisome wild card for the Bush administration. If the US does go to war with Iraq and Iraq then attacks Israel, what will the Sharon government do? As NBC's Martin Fletcher reports, the domino effect could be very different than it was during the Persian Gulf War.
MARTIN FLETCHER reporting: The sirens just beginning here in downtown Tel Aviv and now we're going to see what happens. 1991, Operation Desert Storm, Israelis were scared. Would Iraq attack Israel? Could Israel stop the missiles? It didn't take long to find out.
Unidentified Reporter: Here, here. Scud, Scud. OK, we see the Scud. We see them being fired.
FLETCHER: Then Israel hoped American-made Patriot missiles would destroy the Scuds, but they didn't. Iraq fired 39 Scuds at Israel. The Patriots failed to hit a single one. This time Israel's first line of defense is the homemade Arrow, the world's first anti-missile missile that works. But how well? Israeli military experts believe it will shoot down one missile, could even destroy five at a time. But if Iraq tired a salvo of 10 missiles...
Mr. JOHN PIKE (National Security Expert): The odds are that at least a couple of them would get through all these interceptors and reach their targets.
FLETCHER: And if any of those Iraqi warheads carry chemical or biological weapons, killing hundreds of Israelis, what will Israel do? Sit quietly as Washington demands? In 1991, Israel did just that, helping the US keep the Arab coalition together. But Israel believes not retaliating made the country look weak in Arab eyes. So this time Prime Minister Sharon is certain.
Mr. ARIEL SHARON: We have to hold the sword in one hand in order to defend ourselves.
FLETCHER: He told The New York Times this week that if Israelis die from Iraqi nonconventional weapons, Israel will hit back. And there's no shortage of targets.
Mr. EITAN BEN ELIAHU (Former Israeli Air Force Chief): I would say all their central commands, central intelligence places, the--you know, the offices, the administration and stuff like that--like that.
FLETCHER: Bow how would Israel retaliate? With what? It could be an eye for an eye. Israel reportedly has its own weapons of mass destruction, including at least 200 nuclear bombs. No one here will talk about them, though officially they don't exist. It's a state secret. Israel's hope is that a thought alone is deterrent enough, and there's no sign here that Israel is even considering the use of nonconventional weapons.
Mr. AVNER COHEN ("Israel & The Bomb" Author): Israel would not want to be the second nation to use and cross the nuclear taboo.
FLETCHER: But Washington doesn't even want Israel to join the war with conventional weapons. The reason, the same as '90-'91, the fear that Arab nations would side with Iraq against Israel and America and destabilize the region even more. Martin Fletcher, NBC News, Tel Aviv.
Copyright 2002 National Broadcasting Co. Inc.
