Washington Post October 18, 2002
U.S. Would Send Troops To Hit Scuds
By Vernon Loeb and Thomas E. Ricks
The Bush administration has told Israel that it would deploy Special Operations forces in the western Iraqi desert at the start of any war against Iraq to destroy facilities that could be used to launch missiles at Israel, senior U.S. and Israeli officials said yesterday.
The administration's pledge, which was conveyed during this week's visit to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, follows an undisclosed reconnaissance mission in western Iraq this summer by Israeli special forces, according to a former U.S. defense official. The covert Israeli operation was aimed at determining whether Iraq had the capability to launch drone aircraft, in addition to Scud missiles, from its desert air bases.
The administration's decision to commit ground forces to destroy what military analysts say is a relatively small number of mobile Scuds in Baghdad's arsenal underscores the strong U.S. desire to keep Israel out of any war, as the first Bush administration succeeded in doing during the Persian Gulf War 11 years ago.
While U.S. military officials have long said that preventing Iraqi Scud attacks on Israel would be a top priority if and when a military campaign against Iraq begins, the administration's pledge to use ground forces to attack the missile sites as one of the opening steps of a war signals a radical departure from the Gulf War.
In that conflict, the Pentagon only belatedly involved Special Forces in the Scud hunt after more than 1,000 aircraft sorties failed to stop the Iraqis from firing 39 Scud missiles at Israel and others at U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia and other targets. The military's inability to destroy a single mobile Scud ranked as its single biggest failure during Operation Desert Storm.
As they did in 1991, U.S. officials fear that an Israeli entry into a war against Iraq could ignite a broader conflict in the Middle East. But many analysts believe that attacking Iraq's mobile Scuds is even more important than it was in the Gulf War because any invasion of Iraq would be aimed at removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power, a factor that could make the Iraqi leader more likely to use chemical or biological weapons in any missile attack. Iraq used conventional warheads on its missiles in 1991.
In recent weeks, more than 1,000 U.S. Special Operations troops have been training in Jordan with troops from Jordan, Oman and Kuwait. The exercise, called Early Victor, focused on covert missions such as operating behind enemy lines.
Israeli military and political leaders have said that, unlike 1991, they will not be restrained from attacking Iraq if hit by Iraqi missiles. "I don't think Israel will be able to sit quietly if we are hit by ballistic missiles," one senior Israeli official said here yesterday. "One of the lessons the United States has learned from the last war is to understand that Israel will not be able to sit as we were sitting 11 years ago."
But the official, speaking one day after Sharon met with President Bush at the White House, said the administration's planning for an invasion of Iraq would "be based on preventing an attack against Israel."
"I'm sure the United States will make every effort to avoid the need of Israel to act by taking care to destroy [Iraq's capabilities], or deploying its forces in areas where there is a danger," the official said. "The possibility that Israel will have to act is very low because this time the necessary steps have been taken."
One senior administration official said that U.S. forces "absolutely" would be deployed to western Iraq at the start of any invasion because Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other officials believe an Iraqi Scud attack on Israel is "at the top of the list of what could go wrong -- so let's take a look at that now and keep it from happening."
Another administration official said that while the use of Special Operations forces in western Iraq would only be on a short-term basis, the Israelis are pushing for a permanent U.S. troop presence to maintain security in an area the Israelis believe will quickly fill up with refugees in event of a U.S. invasion. That type of long-term troop commitment, the official said, is only being considered at present by administration officials.
The western Iraqi desert contains, among other things, a complex of airfields known as "H-3," which was used to store chemical weapons during the Gulf War, according to GlobalSecurity.org, a defense consulting group.
Anthony H. Cordesman, a former Pentagon official who is a military and diplomatic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the U.S. military will be conducting a major "Scud suppression mission from day one," not only to keep Iraq from attacking Israel but also to protect Turkey and U.S. forces in the region, which are most vulnerable as they assemble in the region before an attack.
Cordesman, who recently published a book on Iraqi military capabilities, said Baghdad is believed to have only 12 to 25 Scuds in its arsenal. "We're talking about a much different mission than we were during the Gulf War," he said. "We're not talking about the same kind of threat."
Cordesman said the Pentagon's Scud hunt would also involve manned and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, fighters and attack helicopters. U.S. combat aircraft have been optimized since the Gulf War to fire precision weapons at targets designated by Special Operations forces on the ground, a tactic employed with success in the war in Afghanistan.
Global Hawk and Predator drones, which only became operational in the past few years, now give the U.S. military persistent reconnaissance over a battlefield not available to commanders a decade ago.
Eliminating western Iraq as a launching pad for Scud missile attacks also would enhance the ability of U.S. and Israeli anti-missile batteries to combat whatever missiles Iraq might still try to fire from farther east.
Staff writers Bradley Graham and Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.
© 2002 The Washington Post Company
