The Patriot Ledger (Quincy, MA) October 05, 2002
War and consequences
Economic, political andsocial impact of an Iraq invasion could be far-reachingBy Lane Lambert
Army Sgt. Michael Andersen of Plymouth has no doubt that America's military can topple Saddam Hussein's Iraqi dictatorship in short order. Neither does U.S. Rep. William Delahunt or State Street Bank chief economist Fred Breimyer.
It's what happens next that they're not sure of.
Will the United States stage a quick, Gulf War-style campaign and install a new regime in Saddam's place?
Will the assault bog down in the streets of Baghdad and ignite war throughout the Middle East? Will Saddam strike the region's oil supplies, and plunge the wobbly U.S. economy into a harsh recession?
Analysts and political leaders say all those scenarios are possible, to varying degrees, if President Bush makes good on his threat to remove Saddam by force without United Nations support.
"There is no clear outcome from such an undertaking," Breimyer said.
Foreign policy hawks who have the upper hand in the Bush administration think there is one.
With Saddam gone, they say, the specter of nuclear, chemical or biological threats will be gone, too. Democracy could take root in a country that's never had one, and revived oil production would pay for rebuilding the country and keep world prices reasonable.
Bush has said he's confident that the United States is strong enough to weather any shocks from an invasion of Iraq at a time when the economy is struggling and the United States imports half of the oil it uses.
But Breimyer and other analysts say any number of unexpected events could push the U.S. and Western European economies into a recession as fierce as the one caused by the 1973 oil price increases and embargo.
In the worst case, a wider Middle East war and the destruction of oil fields there could leave the region more unstable than it has been in decades, and push U.S. gasoline and home heating oil prices to $3 a gallon or beyond, two to three times their current levels.
Delahunt, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Edward Kennedy say a war could cost $100 billion or more - on top of Bush's tax cut - leaving little money for domestic programs.
They also say Bush has downplayed the likely duration of an American occupation, which Delahunt says could last five to 20 years instead of the two or three years that Bush's advisers forecast.
"Are we as a country prepared for that?" Delahunt said.
For many on the South Shore and across the country, however, those questions still appear to be over the horizon.
Andersen, a Gulf War veteran and a former member of the National Guard, said his friends and neighbors are "slightly worried" that a war will cause a rise in oil and gas prices. Other than that, he said, they mostly discuss immediate concerns: how an invasion would go, and whether Saddam Hussein would use chemical and biological weapons against U.S. troops.
Christopher Garner of Quincy, a senior at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, said his classmates don't take their opposition much further "because they feel like their voice is completely useless. They think the decision (to go to war) has already been made."
Frank's and Kennedy's staffs say callers to their offices are overwhelmingly opposed to an invasion but haven't raised wider questions about the costs and economic impact.
Delahunt did hear some of those worries at a recent Cape Cod town forum. Based on that and national opinion polls, he thinks many Americans have thought about the long-term consequences of Bush's pre-emptive policy, "and they're uneasy."
For Frank, the absence of a national debate about the political and financial burdens of an Iraq campaign is as troubling as the risks of the war itself.
"We will win the war fairly quickly," he said. "But people are not fully aware, including some who support the war, the degree to which we will be taking on a serious, long-term obligation."
The attack
The first step on that road, according to military analysts, would be a hard-hitting bomber and precision missile assault, followed by a ground invasion of about 50,000 troops from the 101st Airborne Division and other units.
A force of that size could be assembled in Kuwait in as little as 10 days, said John Pike, the director of globalsecurity.org in Alexandria, Va.
"We've spent the last decade piling up hardware over there," Pike said.
American stockpiles include tanks, armored personnel carriers and aircraft from Turkey to Oman. The U.S. 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain. About 30,000 U.S. military personnel are already in the region.
If all goes well, Pike and others say, the campaign could be over within weeks because its aim will be to trigger the collapse of Saddam's unpopular regime, not defeat a shrunken, weakened Iraqi army.
If all doesn't go well and resistance stiffens, Pike said U.S. forces could be bogged down for months in urban fighting that would resemble combat that Israeli troops have encountered in West Bank cities.
He said "it's a given" that Saddam will try to use chemical and biological weapons. He might also try to launch smallpox-laden missiles at Israel, in an attempt to wound the Jewish state and provoke a regional conflict.
Estimates of the war's cost in lives and money vary, even on Capitol Hill.
American casualties could range from hundreds to thousands, depending on the duration and intensity of the fighting.
Bush's chief economic adviser says the cost could be $100 billion to $200 billion. Democrats put the price tag at $48 billion to $93 billion for a 30- to 60-day campaign, depending on the number of troops. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office came up with a lower figure - $26 billion to $38 billion.
The Gulf War cost $61 billion, and U.S. allies paid most of that bill. This time the United States would pay "98 percent," Pike said.
Best case, worst case
Assessments of the war's economic effect range from light to nightmare.
At State Street Bank, economist Fred Breimyer outlined four best-to-worst cases of what is possible once an invasion begins:
Gulf War II:
The invasion goes according to the Bush administration's script. Military action is of limited duration.
Saddam is deposed, he doesn't use chemical and biological weapons, and some form of government is installed. U.S. economic impact is limited and short-lived.
West Bank, Baghdad
Longer fighting, more casualties, including Iraqi civilians. Iraq breaks up. Regional instability spreads.
"We get in, but we can't get out," Breimyer said.
Second Front, Israel
Israel is attacked, by Iraq or Islamist groups, amid a general Palestinian uprising. Israel retaliates. Arab oil nations threaten an embargo.
Oil War
In addition to all those conflicts, oil fields in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere are militarily threatened or destroyed. World oil supplies drop by 10 percent or more. Crude oil prices rise to $100 a barrel or more.
Consultant Gary Taylor of the Brattle Group in Cambridge agreed that a loss of oil fields is "the nightmare scenario," but he said most analysts consider that to be a long shot.
"Crude oil going to $100 is out on the edge" of probability, he said.
Short of direct threats to oil fields in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, he and Breimyer don't expect oil prices to spike much beyond $40 to $50 a barrel. Prices peaked at about $40 during the 1990-91 Gulf War.
If Saudi and Kuwait oil fields are taken out of production, Breimyer said, the United States would see the return of 1973-style gas lines, panic buying and a steep recession, as consumer purchases drop and business bankruptcies multiply. America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve would be quickly drained.
Short of such a catastrophe, Taylor said, New England and the rest of the country are in pretty good shape. New England's home heating oil reserve is full at 2 million barrels, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has almost 600 million barrels, enough for a two-month emergency demand.
"The biggest issue is psychological," he said. "The last time we did this big buildup, during the Gulf War, it was over quickly, and prices fell back pretty quickly, too."
The biggest economic question, Breimyer said, is what happens to the oil fields.
If Bush's war does spill beyond Iraq, "there's no clear answer how long that kind of situation would last," he said. "It would last as long as there was a threat to the oil."
Copyright 2002 The Patriot Ledger
