Boston Globe October 3, 2002
New technologies could be pivotal in possible attack
By Ross Kerber
A new generation of cheap and deadly smart bombs, utilizing off-the-shelf components, digital maps, and better targeting, will likely prove to be pivotal weapons in a possible US military attack on Iraq, according to many defense analysts.
''I'd hazard to say that if we go to war with Iraq, there's not going to be a bridge left standing over the Euphrates [River] unless we want it there,'' said Jim Hasik, an Atlanta-based military consultant.
Hasik and other specialists, however, worry that the new, more precise weapons have not been adequately tested and remain in limited supply - challenges to the military's optimism for its new technologies.
Chief among the new bombs is the Joint Direct Attack Munition, an all-weather armament made by Boeing Co. with components from Providence-based Textron Inc. and other civilian suppliers.
In contrast with older weapons, the new generation finds its way with advances such as target-elevation data and satellite signals. The JDAM already has proven itself in Afghanistan. By February, commanders had dropped 6,600 JDAMs, consultants estimate - so many that stockpiles ran low and officials had to scramble up more production from a Missouri factory.
More are on the way, since they cost less than $30,000 apiece, a fraction of other precision weapons like the Tomahawk cruise missile, which costs more than $1 million. Observers regard them as a major advance over the weapons used against Iraq in 1991's Gulf War.
Speaking to the House Armed Services Committee on Sept. 18, General Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, cited the JDAM to support his point that ''our nation's combat powers increased dramatically over the past decade.''
Similar weapons include the Joint Stand-Off Weapon, a bomb built by Lexington-based Raytheon Co. that can glide up to 60 miles, and a forthcoming Lockheed Martin Corp. air-to-ground missile. The ''joint'' refers to the use of the weapons by Air Force and Navy planes.
The Pentagon won't release as many bomb-effectiveness reviews as some say are needed to judge the recent air campaigns over Afghanistan and Kosovo, and some bugs remain - the bombs are unproven against mobile targets such as tanks, for instance.
Also, in an Aug. 1 memo, Thomas Christie, the Pentagon's top testing official, criticized the Navy for deploying ''combat systems into harm's way that have not demonstrated acceptable performance,'' including one version of the standoff weapon and a laser targeting system. The memo was released Sept. 24 by a nonprofit group, the Project on Government Oversight.
Perhaps the toughest questions facing the new arms reflect their origins in the civilian sector. Some wonder whether Boeing can build JDAMs fast enough. Others have expressed concerns that the bombs' guidance systems could be jammed by devices available from online suppliers for as little as $40. Reduced accuracy would lead to more collateral damage if they are used against targets in cities.
The Air Force says production isn't a concern and that the bombs can compensate for jamming with their internal guidance systems. The Navy acknowledges it rushed the glider bombs into service, but only because of pressing needs.
Even specialists like Phil Coyle, Christie's predecessor and a frequent skeptic of weapons programs who is now affiliated with the Center for Defense Information, say the bombs are generally so accurate that the biggest constraint on their use has become the quality of the intelligence used to aim them.
The JDAM in particular, said Tim Brown, senior analyst at GlobalSecurity.org in Washington, ''is the weapon that's going to win the war.''
''If you were to look at one that's going to stand out in terms of its ability to destroy more Iraqi equipment with the lowest price, and the lowest risk of American life, this is definitely it,'' Brown said.
Remote-controlled bombs were first used in World War II, and received much attention when the Pentagon released Gulf War videos showing weapons destroying specific buildings. Later studies showed just 8 percent of the ord nance dropped could be considered precision-guided munitions, the military's term for smart bombs, and that some didn't perform as advertised.
One problem was that targets had to be marked with lasers, which can't penetrate dust or clouds. Planes also had to fly low to pick out targets, exposing pilots to antiaircraft fire.
The Air Force and Navy responded by developing weapons that navigate via signals from satellites, meant to work in all weather and keep pilots at a safe distance from antiaircraft fire. These bombs proved powerful during the first weeks of the air campaign over Kosovo in 1999, when the B-2 stealth bomber, the only plane then equipped to drop JDAMs, flew just 3 percent of missions but struck 33 percent of targets, according to a draft report by the plane's maker, Northrop Grumman Corp.
Another step was a space shuttle mission in 2000, sponsored by the Pentagon's little-known National Imagery and Mapping Agency. Using specialized radar, the mission collected topographic data for 80 percent of the earth, plotting points every 30 meters to within 16 meters of their elevation above sea level.
Knowing these altitudes will help target or guide more than 160 military systems, according to the agency's Web site. Before the data was available, and assuming that satellite signals aren't jammed, the JDAM had a 50 percent chance of falling within 13 meters of a target. The new elevation data can make the weapons about twice as accurate, according to Hasik, who is co-author of ''The Precision Revolution: GPS and the Future of Aerial Warfare.'' He estimates US forces have around 15,000 JDAMs on hand.
Weak targeting data can prove fatal. In December, three US special forces troops in Afghanistan were killed and 20 injured by a JDAM dropped by a B-52 bomber. Four Canadian soldiers were killed in April by a laser-guided bomb dropped from an American F-16 after the pilot mistook their nighttime training mission for enemy fire.
These cases haven't caused the military to back off from smart bombs, however. So far around 60 percent of the arms dropped on Afghanistan have been precision-guided, according to Northrop, including 100 JDAMs that were dropped in a 20-minute period last Oct. 19. Most expect the percentage would be higher in any attack on Iraq, where more infrastructure would be targeted.
Another reason is that bombs have become cheaper. JDAMs consist of a kit costing around $21,000, including a GPS receiver, sensors, and tailfins. The kits are attached to existing iron bombs, the most expensive of which is the $7,100 Mark-83, a 1,000-pound device. Loren Thompson, an analyst at the Lexington Institute in Washington, says this represents a revolution in military economics.
''Today you can destroy a multimillion-dollar target with a munition that costs less than 1 percent of what you're destroying,'' Thompson said. ''There was a time where, even if you had weapons that were as accurate, they cost more than the target.''
Thompson credits the military with applying the advances of civilian technology to make its munitions and communications systems more effective, though he worries jamming could be a significant problem in a war against a foe more developed than Iraq - perhaps reflecting too much military faith in technology. The Pentagon, he said, ''qualifies as the last outpost of dot-com mania.''
Perhaps the clearest sign of the military's confidence in its improved targeting is a forthcoming Air Force weapon, the Small Diameter Bomb, that will use just 250 pounds of explosive to accomplish the same missions as the 1,000-pound Mark-83.
Planes carrying the lighter arms can hit more targets per mission, and in theory will reduce collateral damage, said Air Force Colonel Jim McClendon, the new bombs' program manager.
''If I have the appropriate accuracy, then I also have the lethality I need,'' McClendon said.
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