Pacific News Service Sep 13, 2002
Let's Admit It - We Will Invade Iraq by December
Michael Klare
Though Pres. Bush asked the United Nations for strong action against Iraq, top military officers know the United States will invade well before the end of the year. New forward headquarters in Qatar and other clear signs point overwhelmingly to certain assault with or without the United Nations, writes PNS commentator Michael Klare, who calls for the Bush administration to quit dissembling so Americans can honestly discuss its ultimate intentions.
The world is watching the United Nations to see how the Security Council will respond to President Bush's plea for strong action against Iraq, but top American military officers know that the die has already been cast: With or without U.N. support, the United States will invade Iraq later this year, probably around Dec. 1.
If there was any doubt remaining about this matter, it was dispelled on Sept. 12 -- the same day that President Bush addressed the U.N. General Assembly -- when the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it was moving its headquarters staff from Tampa, Florida, to the new U.S. command center in the Persian Gulf sheikdom of Qatar. Among the hundreds of officers who will make the move is Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the commander of all U.S. combat forces in the Persian Gulf region.
Although described as a training exercise, the transfer of senior military commanders to Qatar is an obvious sign that the Department of Defense is stepping up preparations for an assault on Iraq. Many U.S. combat troops have already been moved into the region, and the arrival of senior officers will give CENTCOM the on-site presence it will need to conduct sustained military operations. Indeed, it was a similar move to the region by Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf -- Frank's predecessor as commander-in-chief of CENTCOM -- that triggered the countdown to Operation Desert Storm in 1990.
Qatar will be front-line headquarters. Until recently, CENTCOM relied on its command center at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia to oversee military operations in the Gulf. But with the Saudis unwilling to support an attack on Iraq, the Defense Department has worked feverishly to construct an alternative facility at Al Udeid air base in Qatar. Satellite photos displayed on the Web site of GlobalSecurity.com, a respected private think tank, show a massive construction effort conducted over the past six months. Today, Al Udeid boasts the longest runways in the Persian Gulf area and a vast complex of hangers, offices, fuel depots and weapons storage areas.
The buildup at Al Udeid is being accompanied, moreover, by the stockpiling of arms and ammunition in Kuwait, the establishment of forward operating bases in Jordan, the movement of military supplies from Europe to the Middle East and a steady increase in the number of combat troops in the region. By themselves, none of these actions is a sure sign of war, but, taken together, they suggest a coordinated plan of action whose final step will be an invasion of Iraq.
For some observers, this rush to war may appear to contradict the president's call for concerted action by the United Nations. But while Mr. Bush did invite the U.N. to take a leadership role in ousting Saddam Hussein, he made it clear that the United States was prepared to act unilaterally -- and with decisive force. "The purposes of the United States should not be doubted," he said. Saddam Hussein must bow to U.S. demands, "or action will be unavoidable." And the outcome, he noted, is foreordained: "a regime that has lost its legitimacy will also lose its power."
Observers in Washington report that the White House is likely to support a Security Council resolution proposed by French President Jacques Chirac that calls on Saddam Hussein to open up all Iraqi military facilities to international inspection within three weeks -- or else. Backers of this plan appear to believe that Hussein will never agree to such stringent terms, and so the Security Council will, in effect, give the United States a green light to invade Iraq at about the same time that Gen. Franks will arrive in Qatar and assume direct command of the gathering U.S. assault force.
This being the case, it appears that the president's eloquent appeal to the U.N. General Assembly is little more than a political ploy -- a calculated effort to gain international backing for an American invasion that will take place no matter what happens at the United Nations. Such backing will no doubt make it easier to sell the forthcoming assault to Congress and the American people, but will have little effect on the actual dynamics of war.
It is time for President Bush to stop pretending that he has not yet decided on the use of military force and tell the American people the truth: We are going to war against Iraq, and soon. For some in Congress and elsewhere, this may be welcome news; for others, it will be deeply disturbing. But we cannot have an honest discussion about the merits of war and the costs we are likely to incur unless the White House is candid about its ultimate intentions. The time for dissembling is over.
Klare mklare@hampshire.edu is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Mass., and author of "Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict" (Owl Books).
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