All Things Considered National Public Radio (NPR) September 13, 2002
Consultations with the Congress and UN could preclude quick strike on Iraq by weeks or months
JACKI LYDEN, host: From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Jacki Lyden.
ROBERT SIEGEL, host: And I'm Robert Siegel. One day after presenting his case for action against Iraq to the United Nations, President Bush has expressed doubts that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein will meet his demands and head off a military confrontation. President GEORGE W. BUSH: I am highly doubtful that he'll meet our demands. I hope he does, but I'm highly doubtful. And the reason I'm doubtful is he's had 11 years to meet the demands, and for 11 long years he has basically told the United Nations and the world he doesn't care.
LYDEN: Speaking to reporters in New York, Mr. Bush said the US is already holding talks at the United Nations to craft a tough resolution on Iraq, one that would include consequences if Iraq does not comply in short order.
Pres. BUSH: There will be deadlines within the resolution. Our chief negotiator for the United States, our secretary of State, understands that we must have deadlines, and we're talking days and weeks, not months and years.
SIEGEL: But even limited consultations with Congress and the United Nations may take some time, and as NPR's Tom Gjelten reports, the requirements of diplomacy and military planning could yet come into conflict.
TOM GJELTEN reporting:
For much of the summer, it appeared the Bush administration was ready to go it alone on Iraq whenever it seemed militarily convenient. But then the president agreed to seek congressional approval for military action and even, as he said yesterday, to work with the UN Security Council on necessary resolutions. And now it's not clear how long these processes will take. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota said yesterday he sees no rush to act.
Senator TOM DASCHLE (Minority Leader): I think that it's very important for us to be deliberate. I've said now on several occasions, and I think the vast majority of members of Congress believe this, that we want to do it right. We don't care if we do it quickly.
GJELTEN: At the United Nations, the deliberative process may take awhile. Diplomats have to draft a Security Council resolution forceful enough to satisfy the Bush administration. Iraq could then be given a short time to agree to the return of UN weapons inspectors. In the event Saddam Hussein unexpectedly meets that demand, it could take several more weeks for the inspectors to get there and resume their work. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw, whose government is Washington's closest ally, says this whole diplomatic exercise should be given enough time to bring results.
Mr. JACK STRAW (British Foreign Minister): If we can ensure by rigorous unconditional inspection that Iraq is rid of those weapons of mass destruction in a peaceful way, then the argument about military action recedes.
GJELTEN: Where would this diplomatic or inspection activity leave US war planning? Military commanders think carefully about the timing of an operation. Weather conditions, for example, can be a factor, especially in a place like Iraq, where US troops could be confronted with chemical or biological weapons. John Pike, a military analyst with GlobalSecurity.org, says spring or summer heat could complicate an operation.
Mr. JOHN PIKE (GlobalSecurity.org): American troops are going to have to wear heavy chemical protective gear, and that basically means that a ground campaign would probably have to be concluded by the end of February.
GJELTEN: The US military official speaking on background says war planners in the Pentagon are basically making that same assumption. For military action to conclude by the end of February, preparations, of course, would have to begin well before that. Some senior commanders say as many as 200,000 US troops would need to be deployed to the region to carry out an Iraqi operation with a good chance of success. John Pike does the math.
Mr. PIKE: That would require military buildup of anywhere from two to three months before the ground campaign began, which would mean that American troops would have to start moving into Kuwait sometime around Thanksgiving.
GJELTEN: Would a drawn-out, consultative process on Capitol Hill and at the United Nations get in the way of those preparations? Perhaps. But retired Army General Barry McCaffrey, who commanded troops during the first Gulf War a decade ago, says it would be worth the wait to get broader support, and McCaffrey argues that it would be wrong to conclude that a war in Iraq could only be fought in the winter months.
General BARRY McCAFFREY (Retired, US Army): January-February, Desert Storm '91, it was freezing cold, driving rains, sand storms, miserable weather up in the Euphrates River Valley. On the other hand, you know, our Army forces go out to the National Training Center in 114-degree temperatures and operate day and night. So I think we're capable of carrying out aggressive military operations under any weather conditions.
GJELTEN: The first Gulf War began only after Iraq was given a series of ultimatums. There were high-level negotiations, and only after that process broke down did military action commence. But US officials insist they'll be far less patient this time around. Elliot Cohen, a professor of national security studies at Johns Hopkins University, says US commanders will want some measure of tactical surprise, and they won't want to telegraph all their moves ahead of time.
Professor ELLIOT COHEN (Johns Hopkins University): I don't think it will be anything like that sort of diplomatic minuet leading to a conflict. I think there will be a sense of some period, which may be weeks, may be a little bit longer than that, in which there is a serious effort to work through the UN and acquire some new resolution and then something will happen. But when that will happen, whether it'll be two months from now or six months from now or even up to a year from now, I don't think anybody can really say with confidence.
GJELTEN: In any case, the Iraqis themselves may streamline the war-planning process. Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said flatly today that his government rejects the US conditions and will not allow UN weapons inspectors to return unconditionally. If that position is maintained, there may be less to discuss at the United Nations. Tom Gjelten, NPR News, Washington.
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