The Atlanta Journal and Constitution September 2, 2002
Warfare tests new technology
BY MIKE TONER
Real wars have always tested the potential, and underscored the limitations, of new weapons --- from the hot air balloons used to observe enemy positions during the Civil War to bunker-busting bombs that debuted in Iraq.
In the Afghan conflict, dramatic performances by two high-tech stars of Operation Enduring Freedom --- "smart bombs" and remotely piloted aircraft --- appear to assure they will both play even bigger roles in the next war.
The fighting in Afghanistan highlighted some of the weapons' limitations as well, but that isn't stopping the Pentagon from spending nearly $2 billion in the coming year to acquire more of both. Precision weapons and unmanned aircraft fit nicely into the Defense Department's planned five-year, $144 billion transformation --- a series of steps to make the military more agile, versatile, and technologically advanced.
"The capabilities demonstrated in Afghanistan show how far we have come in the 10 years since the Persian Gulf War," Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told Congress recently. "But they are just a glimpse of how far we can go." Coming of age A variety of specialized bombs saw action in Afghanistan, including the 15,000-pound "Daisy Cutter," which can incinerate everything within six city blocks, and fuse-activated cluster bombs, which can scatter hundreds of bomblets over several acres.
But this was the war in which smart bombs came of age. Smart bombs, guided from afar to their targets by lasers or satellite signals, are credited for the devastating effectiveness of American air strikes on Taliban and al-Qaida positions, and for minimal losses to U.S. pilots, who can release the bombs out of harm's way.
More than 60 percent of the 13,000 bombs dropped in Afghanistan were smart weapons. During the Gulf War, precision munitions made up only 3 percent of the total.
The next war is certain to see even wider use of such guided bombs. Employees at the Boeing Co.'s missile plant in St. Louis, which makes $25,000 bolt-on guidance kits that convert ordinary bombs to precision Joint Direct Attack Munitions, are now working around-the-clock to replenish U.S. stocks of the weapons.
The Defense Department wants JDAM production doubled from current levels by next year. The goal is a stockpile of 40,000 to 50,000 smart-bomb kits that can be quickly rushed into action.
The success of precision bombs was at least partly responsible for the Pentagon's decision this year to scrap the Army's $11 billion Crusader artillery program, a fleet of self-propelled howitzers designed to lob shells at targets 30 miles away. Smart bombs, the Pentagon decided, could do the job better.
Military officials maintain that the Afghan bombing inflicted less collateral damage for its size than any other air war in history.
A short list of known mishaps, however, clearly shows that even the smartest smart bombs are not infallible: Four Canadian soldiers were killed and eight wounded when an F-16 pilot dropped a laser-guided bomb prematurely. Four Afghans were killed and eight wounded when a JDAM bomb hit a residential area in Kabul instead of a helicopter a mile away. Forty-eight civilians, including 25 at a wedding party, were killed in an air raid in Uruzgan province.
"These are human-made, human-designed systems," Rear Adm. John Stufflebeam explained after one incident. "They're going to have flaws."
Not all of the flaws are mechanical. Last December, Hamid Karzai, now the Afghan president, was among those slightly wounded when a 2,000-pound smart bomb dropped by a B-52 landed near an American position by mistake. Three American soldiers were killed and 25 injured. An investigation blamed the mishap on "flat-out human error, putting the wrong coordinates in the wrong place."
The Pentagon has not issued a detailed accounting of the collateral damage from U.S. air strikes. Estimates of civilian deaths from bombing --- by news and human rights organizations --- vary widely, from around 800 to more than 3,500. One U.S. policy institute, the Project on Defense Alternatives, contends that the rate of civilian casualties in Afghanistan was four times greater than it was during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.
"It's clear that smart weapons work pretty well, but they don't work all the time," says analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-area-based military watchdog organization. "In some cases, it appears that the precision of the weapon has outstripped the precision of the targeting."
The military's reliance on precision weapons has also drawn a rebuke from the Army's own Center for Lessons Learned. The center says that a lack of conventional artillery in Operation Anaconda, the largest U.S. ground action of the war, left troops unnecessarily vulnerable to enemy fire.
Hot new trend
For the same reason it likes smart bombs --- the ability to keep U.S. personnel delivering them out of danger --- the Pentagon is also embracing the hottest trend in military aviation: remotely piloted aircraft known as UAVs, for unmanned aerial vehicles.
UAVs can be flown from a control room hundreds of miles away. They can also loiter unobtrusively, taking pictures or gathering other information for up to 24 hours at a time. And they cost less than manned planes.
Next year's defense budget includes $1.1 billion to expand the military's fleet of drones, adding 37 new unmanned aircraft and accelerating development of more advanced craft. Some unmanned spy planes have already been sent to the Philippines to aid in the pursuit of terrorist groups there. The Coast Guard plans to start using them in the United States as well.
Despite the enthusiasm, the robot aircrafts' performance so far has been less than an unqualified success. Both of the Air Force's operational Global Hawk reconnaissance drones, rushed to Afghanistan late last year, crashed. The most recent loss, over Pakistan in July, was blamed on engine failure.
The smaller and more numerous Predator UAVs have had problems in Afghanistan as well. At least six of the $3 million planes have been lost in the last year, some due to lapses of control and some due to icing on the wings.
Although Predators weren't designed to carry weapons, a few have been equipped to fire 5-foot Hellfire missiles at targets they spot with their on-board cameras. The results have been decidedly mixed.
Early in the war, a missile-equipped CIA Predator was dispatched to help protect rebel leader Abdul Haq when he was intercepted on a clandestine mission in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The missile didn't deter Haq's assailants, and he was eventually killed.
In February, a CIA Predator killed three suspected al-Qaida leaders in eastern Afghanistan, including one tall individual some claimed might be Osama bin Laden. It wasn't. The three victims have never been identified.
In May, another CIA Predator fired a missile at rebel leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in an effort to eliminate a key opponent of the central government. The missile missed its target but killed some of Hekmatyar's followers.
'It's like early 1914'
The mixed results have not dampened enthusiasm for the future of pilotless aircraft --- or the belief that it will improve rapidly.
"UAV technology is still in its infancy, but it is evolving rapidly," says Chris Hellman, a senior analyst for the Center for Defense Information. "It's like early 1914, when we first recognized the importance of aerial reconnaissance. By the end of 1914, airplanes on both sides were shooting at each other."
Shooting is exactly what the Pentagon has in mind as it develops unmanned aerial combat vehicles, or UCAVs, remotely piloted craft that can fire missiles, drop bombs and, someday, even engaged in aerial dogfights.
In April, Boeing conducted initial flight tests of the X-45, the first pilotless plane designed to carry weapons into combat. The Y-shaped drone, expected to be ready for action by 2008, is expected to be able to "hunt in packs," with a single pilot controlling up to four of the craft. It's being designed to carry up to 3,000 pounds of guided bombs.
A new unmanned helicopter, the Hummingbird, designed to be able to stay airborne for up to 40 hours, also made its first test flight this year. Possibilities for the future include drones with stealth technology, like that now used in manned aircraft, and palm-sized "microfliers" that could be flown like model airplanes.
As pilotless aircraft grow more sophisticated, however, they are also growing more vulnerable to escalating costs. The Air Force, which wants a fleet of 51 unmanned Global Hawks, was shocked to discover that the price of the planes has jumped from $15 million each to $75 million, a cost officials warned could ultimately doom the aircraft.
Copyright 2002 The Atlanta Journal and Constitution
