Orlando Sentinel September 1, 2002
Defense blasts into a new era
By Christopher Boyd
Congress is close to approving the largest increase in defense spending since the Reagan administration, hastening the military's evolution into a technologically unrivaled fighting force.
The jump of about 10 percent would raise military pay and help offset the cost of the Afghanistan campaign, but it also provides funding for a new generation of weapons and communications systems thatispart of the Pentagon's vision of an indomitable 21st century global command.
For military contractors, the strategic shift promises abundant work. Lockheed Martin, Harris Corp. and a long list of Central Florida technology companies are among the potential beneficiaries.
"There's an atmosphere of euphoria out there," said Christopher Hellman, senior analyst with the Center for Defense Information in Washington. "This is a very, very favorable environment for anyone who wants higher defense budgets."
Last year's terrorist attacks and the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan were pivotal moments in the campaign for a beefed-up military. Both houses of Congress are now solidly behind the initiative.
"Since Sept. 11, an argument over nickels and dimes in the defense budget has changed to an atmosphere where the sky's the limit," Hellman said. "The Pentagon is pushing for spending increases all the way through 2007."
The Bush administration is squarely on board.
"The consequence of 9/11 is that the American people have offered the military a blank check," said Andrew Krepinevich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment in Washington. "The administration took the opportunity to fix problems it perceived."
The cost of that fix is substantial. Krepinevich said Pentagon procurement costs could rise as much as 30 percent by the middle of the decade, forcing cuts in other parts of the federal budget. Critics say that spending on everything from Medicare and Medicaid to education could be compromised.
The defense appropriation for fiscal 2003, which begins Oct. 1, contains a spending increase of about $30 billion. The Senate and House versions of the bill will go to joint committee this month, resulting in an allocation that will almost certainly exceed $390 billion.
The commitment to spend more has pushed up defense contractors' stock prices this year even as the broader market fell.
Defense contractors are enthused.
"We all agree that since the Bush administration arrived there has been a general upturn in opportunities for Harris," said Sleighton Meyer, spokesman for Harris Corp., a large Melbourne communications contractor.
Some big weapons programs are in the works. Some are so-called legacy programs for planes, tanks and ships conceived during the Cold War. Others, which are favorites of the Bush administration, are designed for fast and decisive strikes.
For now, legacy projects are receiving the most money. One of those weapons -- the Joint Strike Fighter combat jet -- will likely become the most expensive weapon ever built.
The plane, which will have three versions for service in the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, is expected to cost $200 billion over the next 15 years. In Central Florida, Lockheed Martin and Harris Corp. could receive a combined $3 billion in contracts during the duration of the program.
Lockheed will also receive funding for the F-22 Raptor fighter jet, another piece of legacy equipment. Lockheed's Missiles and Fire Control division in Orlando will assemble subsystems for the F-22.
Though legacy weapons are important components of the national arsenal, a new generation of high-tech equipment also plays a key role. Even as the F-22 goes into production, military strategists are beginning to plan for a day when fighter planes operate without pilots.
Paul Nisbet, aerospace analyst with JAS Research in Newport, R.I., said legacy programs might whither as strategy changes.
"We'll probably see programs like the F-22 cut back so there is more money for transformational weaponry -- equipment that is lighter, faster and more lethal than its predecessors," Nesbit said.
Some weapons that fit the new strategy are already in use. Flying command posts, including the E-8C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS) which Northrop Grumman Corp. outfits in Melbourne, are important tools for military operations that enlist high-tech weapons and rapid attacks.
Joint STARS command posts, which coordinate aircraft in a battle zone, and other aerial platforms that communicate with troops on the ground, could transform warfare.
The Afghanistan campaign gives a first inkling of how a transformed military might operate. Drone aircraft were used to gather intelligence and small Special Forces squads equipped with a wealth of high-tech equipment were deployed to help coordinate air strikes against enemy positions.
John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org in Washington, said the Bush administration's objectives go beyond retooling the armed forces.
"What they want is a military that is so large and powerful that nobody will ever think about challenging us," Pike said. "There's an idea out there that you can't have too much supremacy. As it is, the United States already has a level of military superiority that is unrivaled in the history of mankind. But there is a call for more."
The commitment to permanent military superiority, which Bush first enunciated during his presidential campaign, is very expensive. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has been a steadfast advocate of the policy, which would allow the United States to enter a wide assortment of military engagements -- some with hypothetical adversaries.
"The idea is that we need to spend a lot of money to get at least four generations [of hardware] ahead of the Chinese," Pike said. "We are trying to stop China from becoming a military competitor."
As the Pentagon budget rises, the procurement policy is under revision. A first hint of the new direction came last spring when Rumsfeld canceled the $11 billion Crusader field artillery system. The Crusader was designed primarily for use in large land battles.
In explaining his decision, Rumsfeld said military planning is changing.
"This decision is not about any one weapon system but merely about a strategy of warfare -- a strategy that drives the choices that we must make about how best to prepare our total forces for the future," Rumsfeld said.
The new strategy relies much more on highly mobile forces that are assisted with advanced technology. As part of the new approach, Rumsfeld wants to convert four Trident ballistic-missile submarines to platforms for Tomahawk missiles that could provide support to squads of soldiers on land.
The fiscal 2003 budget contains funding for other equipment, including a fast, high-tech ship that would use stealth technology and could be used in a rapid deployment.
As the buildup proceeds, demand for more money to build new systems will rise. If other federal programs -- health care and education among them -- suffer, a new debate could raise fresh questions about the cost of global dominance.
"The spending increases that the Pentagon is planning through 2007 are extremely optimistic," analyst Hellman said. "The question is whether the military's case for more money will remain as strong two or three years from now if there aren't any more conflicts and other departments in the government face repeated cuts."
Copyright © 2002, Orlando Sentinel
