The Times (London) August 30, 2002
Washington opens a winter window
By Michael Evans
The window for military action against Iraq is now perceived in Washington to be the months between November and February, whichever option President Bush chooses for toppling Saddam Hussein.
A number of factors are driving the timetable, including the availability of American aircraft carriers in the region, the climate in Iraq and the amount of time it will take to build up the necessary forces.
Mr Bush has insisted that he has not made up his mind about military action. However, all the signs in Washington are that two of the current options on the table have lost favour: the low-key US special forces/Iraqi opposition joint strike plan promoted by General Wayne Downing, a former head of US Special Operations Command; and the Desert Storm II concept under which up to 250,000 American troops would be involved in a full-scale invasion. A third option, a rapid, decisive operation consisting of 50,000-60,000 troops, which would strike at the heart of Saddam's regime after key military and political sites had been hit by air raids and Tomahawk cruise missile strikes, is now seen by many analysts in Washington as the plan most likely to succeed.
After the suggestion by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, that Britain might ask the United Nations to impose a deadline on Iraq to readmit UN weapons inspectors, the countdown has effectively begun.
John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, who formerly worked for the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, says the period from November is crucial because the US Navy would have up to five aircraft carriers able to deploy to the Gulf region.
If the Americans were denied the use of key Gulf State airbases for launching attacks on Iraq, the carriers would be the prime platforms for air raids. Each carrier battle group would also come with a US Marine Amphibious Ready Group of about 2,200 marines, who could be used to seize a key city such as Basra in the south, according to Major Charles Heyman, editor of Jane's World Armies.
While Iraq's weather conditions alone would not prevent a military campaign, General Tommy Franks, Commander-in-Chief of US Central Command, will have taken on board the fact that the country's climate is relatively friendly between November and February. Mr Pike said that American war planners had to assume the worst scenario: that Saddam would use chemical weapons against US troops. "The troops would have to wear full protective chemical suits and in hot weather the fighting effectiveness of the soldiers would rapidly degrade," he said.
Other less significant elements in timing an attack might include Ramadan, which will last a month between early November and December, and the new moon (December 4), which would give a clear advantage to the Americans, equipped with sophisticated night-vision systems. Mr Pike said: "The ideal schedule would be to start gearing up for the campaign at the end of November, and get to Baghdad on December 5 at the end of Ramadan." The Desert Storm II option, known as Operational Plan 1003, would need a forces build-up of three months, lasting from November to January.
The more popular rapid, decisive strike option -also known as the inside-out concept -might take a build-up of only about three weeks. The attack concept would involve bypassing the poorly equipped Iraqi divisions in the south and heading straight for Baghdad.
Major Heyman said another option being studied was a blockade, in which US troops would control all exits from Iraq from inside the border.
© Copyright 2002 Times Newspapers Limited
