The San Diego Union-Tribune August 27, 2002
Spy Plane's New Version Is Bigger, Better, More Capable
By Bruce V. Bigelow
In the eight years since the Pentagon launched the unmanned RQ-1 Predator as an experimental concept, the propeller-driven spy plane has shown some surprising capabilities.
In October, for example, military analysts were skeptical of reports that Predators flying above Taliban forces in Afghanistan were equipped with laser-guided Hellfire antitank missiles. Yet it was true.
Those reports were no less surprising, however, than the Pentagon's 1995 decision to deploy Predators to Bosnia just a year after General Atomics Aeronautical Systems began making the first 10 planes in San Diego. It was literally a trial by fire for the remote-control UAV, or unmanned aerial vehicle. Unlike a piloted reconnaissance plane, the Predator can remain aloft for more than 24 hours, "loitering" above hostile territory and transmitting images of enemy activities on the ground.
This year, the San Diego-based manufacturer has expanded its facilities and retooled some assembly lines for production of a second-generation model, called the MQ-9 Predator B.
"What happened after Sept. 11 is we went to war," said Thomas J. Cassidy Jr., Aeronautical Systems' chief executive. "So we needed some new capabilities."
The Pentagon has provided funding to build six Predator B's this year, along with 22 conventional Predators, at a total cost of more than $ 142 million. A Predator system typically includes four aircraft, a ground control station and a satellite communications suite.
Since last September, the company has hired about 200 employees and added more than 75,000 square feet of space, Cassidy said. More than 740 people now work at Aeronautical Systems' headquarters in Rancho Bernardo or at its facilities in Adelanto, El Mirage and Gray Butte.
The Predator B was intended to be bigger and better than the original Predator, and its capabilities may prove to be just as surprising.
Last week, for example, Aeronautical Systems announced that a conventional Predator had successfully launched a 57-pound miniature remote-controlled aircraft during recent flight tests near Edwards Air Force Base. It was the first time a UAV in flight had launched a mini-UAV, the company said.
The mini-UAV released by a Predator cruising at 10,000 feet was developed by the Naval Research Lab in Washington, D.C.
The demonstration suggests a host of new uses for the Predator B as a "mothership" UAV, with the ability to send mini-UAVs into hostile airspace for additional, close-in targeting assistance. A swarm of expendable UAVs also could fly specialized sensors into regions contaminated by nuclear, biological or chemical agents.
Another entry in a new class of mini-UAVs suitable for Predator is Raytheon's 25-pound SilentEyes, a glider expected to operate undetected because of its size it's only as big as a large bird and lack of a noisy engine.
Because Predator B is bigger and has a more-powerful jet engine, it can carry as many as six mini-UAVs, or a combination of missiles, bombs and mini-UAVs on six attachment points under the wings.
The Predator B also was designed to carry more electronics and improved sensors. It can carry aloft about 2,500 pounds a payload more than five times as heavy as a conventional Predator.
The Predator B won't be able to loiter above its target longer, but it can fly twice as high and is significantly faster. As a result, the Predator B is more of a "hunter-killer" than its predecessor, said Cassidy, a former Naval aviator.
"The idea is to go out and locate the bad guys, persist in the area until they figure out who is who, and attack those targets," he said. Future Predators could even be equipped with air-to-air missiles, suggesting the spy plane could take on a more aggressive combat role.
"It's an example of how events in the real world can lead to demands for new types of capabilities," said Doug Berenson, a spokesman for DFI International, a defense consultant in Washington, D.C. "Before Afghanistan, very few people outside of Aeronautical Systems seemed very interested in developing the Predator B."
As conceived under a Pentagon program intended to test advanced technology concepts, the Predator was originally intended to serve in a medium-altitude surveillance role. It uses radar and a variety of cameras to transmit live images by satellite to its ground control station, which is installed in a camouflaged shipping container.
"Since then, the aircraft have evolved, matured and have been improved to do more than it was originally designed for, including targeting and weapons delivery," said Cyndi Wegerbauer, a spokeswoman at Aeronautical Systems' San Diego headquarters. Firing missiles, she added, "was never even thought of at the beginning of this program."
Much of that evolution involved retrofitting the aircraft and the equipment it carries, Wegerbauer said.
"The idea that it was shooting Hellfires caught everybody by surprise," said Chris Hellman of the Center for Defense Information. "But it was jury-rigged.
Things inherently perform better when they're designed from the get-go with that capability in mind."
Sometimes described as an aircraft that only an image analyst could love, the uninhabited Predator is "flown" via remote control by a pilot sitting in a ground control station. Video and radar images transmitted from a Predator hundreds of miles away can be shared with military commanders in the region, nearby combat aircraft and with special forces on the ground.
Military officials have enthusiastically embraced the Predator, despite shortcomings that include wing icing and weather-related difficulties, vulnerability to small-arms fire and occasional dropped communications links.
Out of 80 Predators made in the past eight years, 25 have been shot down or have crashed, according to a report issued in March by the Project on Government Oversight, a nonprofit watchdog group in Washington, D.C.
The group has been critical of development of the original Predator, noting that full operational testing slipped behind schedule by more than three years.
"If operational testing had been completed before production, many initial glitches and cost increases might have been averted," the group said.
But that hasn't dampened the Pentagon's enthusiasm, said defense analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.
"When the commander in chief and leader of the free world speaks favorably of your program, that has a tendency to clear your path," Pike said. "There are very few problems with this program that money and patience wouldn't solve."
© Copyright 2002 Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
