Denver Post August 21, 2002
Rocket launches hopes for future
By Anne C. Mulkern
Wednesday, August 21, 2002 - CAPE CANAVERAL - The future of Lockheed Martin's space systems division rolled into the bright morning sunlight Tuesday, starting the countdown to a moment worth five years and $1 billion.
Lockheed Martin's new Atlas V rocket rolls to its launch pad Tuesday at Cape Canaveral, Fla. Blastoff is scheduled for tonight. The rocket is Lockheed's latest entry in the race for space.
Lockheed Martin's new-generation rocket - a sleek, powerful machine built mostly just outside Denver - debuted publicly, as cars moving on tracks pulled it to a launch pad at the eastern edge of Florida.
Now, it awaits its big moment. The giant tower of copper-colored metal known as the Atlas V, No. 1, is scheduled to blast off tonight, weather permitting.
"This is the culmination of a couple of years of hard work," Laryssa Sharvan-Densmore, who supervised production of the rocket in Denver, said as she watched the rocket emerge. "You have so much heart and soul built into this rocket. It's not just the hardware."
Atlas V stands 191 feet tall, weighs 56,000 pounds and carries enough energy to thrust eight minivans into orbit. Lockheed hopes the new rocket will also have enough power to pull it from an economic slump.
The Atlas V rocket is Lockheed's entry into the latest race for space. The company is competing for government and private business, battling both U.S. rival Boeing Co. and international competitors. It makes its arrival at a somewhat inauspicious moment. The launch business is in a profound slump, with demand tanked by both telecommunications and high-technology industry busts. Lockheed needs success to capture the little business that is available, as well as future contracts.
"We've teed it up and now we've got to hit a hole in one," said John Karas, Lockheed's vice-president and deputy program manager of Atlas. "It's really important. Eyes are on you."
Weather or some last-minute problem could delay the launch, though Tuesday, odds of good weather were 70 percent.
The new rocket is the latest generation of Atlas, which was first launched in 1957. Since that time, different variations of the company have launched 571 Atlas rockets. The first Atlas V will carry a television satellite for French-based European Telecommunications Satellite Organization, or Eutelstat. Lockheed won't say how much they paid to take the risk of sitting atop an untested rocket.
Lockheed's planned launch comes two months before competitor Boeing Corp. hopes to launch its new rocket, Delta IV. Lockheed hopes that first-out-of-the-box advantage will pay off.
"The launch business for the future is certainly resting on a successful Atlas V, over time," said Aerospace analyst Paul Nisbet of JSA Research in Newport, R.I. "It's a very significant long-term battle here for the next 10 or 15 years of satellite launching."
The initial Atlas V faces some scary odds. Worldwide, some 80 percent of new generation rockets suffer catastrophic failure. Boeing suffered multiple failures of its early Delta rockets. Lockheed also has had Atlas failures.
"These new rockets have a high infant mortality rate," said John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org, a Virginia-based space systems analysis group.
Because Atlas V uses many of the same components as the earlier Atlas III model, Lockheed believes some of the risk is lessened.
Success of the latest Atlas could help determine the future of some 5,000 space systems employees who work in Jefferson County. Those workers will only build if there is demand.
"It's a little nerve-racking," Sharvan-Densmore said. "A lot of folks back in Denver, they're worried. They want to have a healthy program so we can continue to have jobs."
But even a successful launch may not be enough to guarantee that stability.
Demand for rocket launches dropped off severely in the last few years. When Lockheed began developing the Atlas V, it hoped to make 19 per year at its Littleton facility. So far it has completed just one and is working on two more. After that, no more are scheduled until 2004. Lockheed began developing the new rocket in 1998, at the behest of the U.S. government. The satellite business was booming, with launches hitting their all-time high of 145 worldwide.
The government wanted to ensure it had guaranteed access to space. That meant more than one option. The government also wanted lower-cost rockets. In 1998 it gave each company $500 million to develop new rockets.
Boeing has since taken off as the government's carrier of choice with 21 government missions worth $1.5 billion to Lockheed's seven worth $500 million. Aerospace analyst Nisbet said that was also because Boeing's new rocket could carry heavier loads, and could lift off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Lockheed does not have a launch pad on the West Coast.
The government is committed to having two launch providers, at least over the next three to five years, said Air Force Col. Sue Mashiko, director of the government's launch vehicle development program.
Government business is only part of what Lockheed needs. The government was counting on commercial demand to help pay the cost of developing the next rockets, but that demand never materialized. An upturn in commercial demand isn't expected for four or five years, and government demand has slowed as well. Now Lockheed and Boeing are asking the government to kick in $100 million or more to keep both programs alive.
Without that money, Lockheed will have to cut jobs and slow production, vice-president Mike Gass said Tuesday.
Space systems, with sales of about $6 billion, make up one-quarter of Lockheed Martin's total business. The company reported sales of $24 billion last year.
Lift-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. EDT, or 4 p.m. Colorado time.
© Copyright 2002 The Denver Post
