
St. Petersburg Times August 18, 2002
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TIMING: Its still pure speculation, but some recent reports have said an assault could come in November. Weather plays a factor. Any earlier and it's too hot for U.S. troops to wear protective bio-chemical suits. In December and January, temperatures get cold enough to freeze diesel fuel. By November, the U.S. military would have time to replenish bomb stocks depleted in the Afghan fighting. Planners could have as many as five U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups ready for deployment by the end of the year. The British carrier, Ark Royal, is also expected to be in the area in early November. An invasion, however, is unlikely before the midterm elections on Nov. 5. John Pike, a leading defense expert, says Pentagon war planners could be given the go-ahead in early November and operations could commence at the end of the month. Whether they will, in fact, do so is a completely different question, Pike said. RISKS: Targets are predictable and in areas with significant civilian populations. Baghdad has a population approaching 5-million and Hussein could use the civilians as human shields. Unintended civilian casualties could reduce already minimal international support for the mission. Baghdad is ringed by Hussein's most elite forces, and the city itself is filled with antiaircraft batteries. Hussein also has constructed an elaborate warren of underground bunkers and escape routes. It may be impossible to find him, much less kill him. If he is cornered, Hussein might try to use weapons of mass destruction on advancing troops or on neighboring countries, including Israel. The modern American military has never fought the kind of dangerous and complicated urban battles that might be needed to oust the Hussein government. U.S. soldiers would likely have to slog through Baghdad's streets wearing chemical weapons suits and carrying extra equipment. Unlike the coalition of U.S. and allied troops used in the Persian Gulf War, the United States would be going it alone this time with the exception of some help from Britain. AFTER THE WAR: If Hussein is deposed, one of the fears is that Iraq could disintegrate splitting into separate countries along ethnic and religious lines. Without a strong U.S. presence, those factions could slip into anarchy, looking for retribution for age-old feuds. Col. Scott Feil, a retired Gulf War veteran and former head of the strategy division at the Pentagon's joint staff, estimated that the United States would need a security force of 75,000 troops in Iraq for at least one year after ousting Hussein, at a cost of $16.2-billion annually. At least 5,000 U.S. troops might need to remain for as long as 10 years as peacekeepers. SOURCES: Center for Strategic and International Studies, GlobalSecurity.org; Periscope, International Institute for Strategic Studies, New York Times, International Herald Tribune, United Press International, Christian Science Monitor, Los Angeles Times, Associated Press, Washington Post, the Mirror. Graphics by DON MORRIS, research by RON BRACKETT of the St. Petersburg Times |
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Copyright 2002 St. Petersburg Times