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ATTACKERS WILL FAIL, SADDAM SAYS

By Howard Schneider

CAIRO, Egypt -- Iraqi President Saddam Hussein warned Thursday that any troops invading his country would be "buried in their own coffin" and that his government in Baghdad would survive an attack just as it did eight years of war with Iran in the 1980s and the Gulf War in 1991.

Saddam, in an address at a military parade marking the end of the conflict with Iran in 1988, did not specifically mention the United States or the Bush administration. But his speech was couched as a defiant response to the crescendo of reports from Washington that an invasion is under consideration and President Bush's repeated expressions of determination to end Saddam's rule. "All empires and bearers of the coffin of evil, whenever they mobilized their evil against the Arab nation, or against the Muslim world, they were themselves buried in their own coffin, with their sick dreams and their arrogance and greed," Saddam said.

The conflict with Iran cost a million lives as missiles flew between Baghdad and Tehran, and troops pushed back and forth across the borders. It won Saddam support from Arab states and the United States as a bulwark against the militant Shiite Muslim fundamentalism preached by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

That support ended, however, when Saddam invaded Kuwait in August 1990, partly in anger over Arab refusal to help him pay for the Iranian conflict, and a U.S.-led coalition pushed his troops back into Iraq in early 1991. Through it all, however, his government has survived.

"If anyone wants to learn from history, he ought to remember this fact and think again. Otherwise, he will end up in the dustbin," Saddam said, suggesting "equitable dialogue" instead of war.

Iraq has held several meetings with the United Nations in recent months to discuss the key outstanding issue of letting weapons inspectors return. It recently proposed more. But U.S. officials maintain the dialogue advocated in Baghdad never yields concrete action. In any case, the Bush administration has made toppling Saddam's government a goal aside from the issue of readmitting inspectors.

The United States and Britain say the United Nations has granted them authority to enforce the no-fly zones. Iraq does not recognize the zones.

"There is no other choice for those who use threat and aggression but to be repelled even if they were to bring harm to their targets," Saddam said.

A White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, said Saddam's speech did not alter Bush's view. "The Iraqi government needs to comply with the responsibilities it agreed to at the end of the Gulf War," he said.

The Bush administration is convinced Saddam is pursuing development of weapons of mass destruction. The threat of Saddam using such weapons against a neighboring Arab state or Israel or supplying the technology to terrorists, Bush officials say, may warrant a pre-emptive war.

The conclusion is shared by few other governments, at least in public. Iraq has seized on that fact for several months, courting its neighbors and talking in a more moderate way about the possible return of weapons inspectors, even as it pledges determined resistance if attacked.

The insulting rhetoric that Saddam often hurled against neighboring Arab leaders has all but disappeared. Iraq has signed free-trade agreements with several countries in the region and worked toward patching up relations with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Saddam has offered financial support to the families of Palestinians killed in the conflict with Israel, including those of suicide bombers.

Viewed by the United States as an unpredictable dictator, Saddam is seen by many Arabs as the head of the only Arab nation rich, powerful and bold enough to stand up to the United States and Israel. While Arab leaders privately agree they would like to see him out of power, they've also concluded, according to their declarations, that the risks of a war, and the potential instability it entails, aren't worth the benefits.

Jordan's King Abdullah said recently that an attack would be "a tremendous mistake." The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud, said Wednesday that the United States would not be allowed to use Saudi soil to stage operations against Iraq.

The support of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, both strong U.S. allies, would be important to defend America against the argument, already common in the area, that it opposes any Arab government that threatens to become too strong or too independent.

BOX: Estimating Iraq's military capability
U.N. weapons inspectors were banned from Iraq in 1998, so any numbers regarding the country's military capabilities are estimates. TROOPS
Armed forces
Army 375,000
Navy 2,000
Air force 30,000
Air-defense command 17,000

Paramilitary forces
Security troops 15,000
Border guards 9,000
Saddam's Fedayeen 18-20,000


EQUIPMENT
Vehicles
Battle tanks 2,200
Armored fighting vehicles 900
Armored personnel carriers 2,400
Artillery
Towed artillery 1,900
Self-propelled artillery 150
Rocket launchers 200
Watercraft
Combat-capable ship 1
Patrol boats 5
Aircraft
Helicopters 375
Bombers 6
Fighter aircraft 310
Reconnaissance planes 5
Missiles
Air-to-surface missiles Unknown
Air-to-air missiles Unknown
Surface-to-surface missiles
Unknown, 56 launchers
Surface-to-air missiles
Unknown, 1,500 launchers


MAP: IRAQ'S MAJOR MILITARY UNITS
Unit: Cities where the individual corps are based (task in parentheses)
1 1st corps: Kirkuk (Against Kurdish rebels and Syria)
2 2nd: Deyala (Against Iran and the Iranian-backed Shiite rebels)
3 3rd: Nasseria (Against Iran, Shiite rebels, U.S. troops from Kuwait or coast)
4 4th: Al Amara (Against Iran, Shiite rebels, U.S. troops from Kuwait or coast)
5 5th: Mosul (Against Kurdish rebels and Syria)
6 Republican Guard North: Baghdad (Outer reaches of Baghdad; against Iran and Kurds)
7 Republican Guard South: Al Hafreia (Against Iran, U.S.-led attack, Shiite rebels)
8 Special Republican Guard: Baghdad (Baghdad and Saddam Hussein) .

RANGE OF IRAQI DELIVERY SYSTEMS
The Iraqi military could strike targets in or near Iraq with short-range missiles, artillery and aircraft equipped with bombs. *Note: Maximum range. Officials say it is unlikely aircraft would survive long out of Iraqi airspace

Sources: The Military Balance, U.S. Defense Department, GlobalSecurity.org, Federation of American Scientists, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jane's, KRT, AP KNIGHT RIDDER TRIBUNE

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