Orlando Sentinel July 28, 2002
Arms race is Mideast Powderkeg
By Michael Cabbage
PALMACHIM AIR FORCE BASE, Israel -- An hour's drive southwest of the biblical site of Armageddon lies Israel's high-tech bid to keep doomsday on hold.
Here amid the picturesque palm trees and sand dunes on Israel's Mediterranean coast, troops at a heavily guarded air base are fine-tuning the Middle East's only operational missile defense.
The first battery of Arrow 2 missiles has stood poised for action since October 2000. Its mission: intercept and destroy any incoming missile threat to nearby Tel Aviv and surrounding areas.
These days, the threats are everywhere. A regional arms race is spiraling out of control, fanned by anger toward Israel, fear of Arab neighbors, ethnic rivalries and a longing for prestige.
Experts warn that a growing number of countries, including Iran and Iraq, are mounting an all-out drive to acquire nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Many of the same regimes also are developing powerful, more accurate rockets to deliver the lethal munitions. Russia, China and North Korea have been only too happy to contribute their expertise and hardware to Arab nations for a price.
While others play catch-up, Israel is working with the United States to maintain its technological edge with defenses such as Arrow and a laser capable of destroying small incoming missiles. The Israeli arsenal already boasts a hefty nuclear stockpile, chemical weapons, accurate long-range missiles and sophisticated spy satellites.
Although the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict has grabbed the headlines in recent months, defense analysts insist the massive weapons buildup poses a far greater danger to Israel and the region.
"Ballistic missiles are what made Saddam Hussein a threat," said Danny Peretz, the Arrow program director at Israel Aircraft Industries. "The equation became: If you have ballistic missiles, then you are a military power. If not, then you are small-time."
"Because Israel has air superiority, it is their only solution," Peretz added. "If you decide there are going to be casualties in Tel Aviv, all you have to do is press a button."
Still building
The reality of the threat was driven home during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when Saddam rained Iraqi Scuds on Israel.
The Arrow system is designed to provide Israel with a national defense against similar attacks once fully deployed. Only one of three planned Arrow batteries is in place, however, because of concerns about the health effects of the system's radar.
The projected $2.2 billion cost of the program is being split about evenly between Israel and the United States. After a troubled start, testing has gone well. Still, concerns remain that a large salvo of enemy missiles could overwhelm Arrow's capabilities.
Israel and the United States also are working on a more exotic missile defense. An experimental laser cannon is being developed to destroy small missiles such as the truck-launched Katyusha rockets fired at Israel by militants in southern Lebanon. Extending the laser's range and finding a mobile power source remain obstacles.
"This probably will be the air-defense artillery of the next generation," said Brig. Gen. Yair Dori, head of air defense for the Israeli air force. "We can cope with all of the threats we have evaluated . . . but we are still building our forces."
For years, Israel relied on fear of retaliation from its superior air force and a thinly veiled nuclear threat to deter potential attackers.
Israel still refuses to officially confirm it has the Bomb and is one of the few countries not to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Western military analysts say Israel developed a nuclear capability more than 35 years ago and has since stockpiled between 100 and 300 warheads. Arab legislator Issam Mahoul sparked an angry debate in the Israeli Knesset in February by revealing that Israel has up to 300 such weapons.
Plutonium for the warheads is produced at the Dimona nuclear facility in Israel's Negev desert. More than 50 nuclear missiles reportedly are stored in silos at a base in the Judean Hills southeast of Tel Aviv. U.S. media reported in June that Israel had acquired three German-made submarines equipped with cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. That would give Israel a nuclear triad of air-, land- and sea-based weapons.
"It's a deterrent that keeps Arab countries from crossing the line and threatening Israel's survival," said Gerald Steinberg, an arms-control expert at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
Analysts say Israel also has supplies of nerve and mustard gas, which Israeli officials deny. Not under dispute, however, is Israel's ability to strike increasingly distant targets. A new upgraded version of the multistage Jericho missile reportedly has a range of up to 2,800 miles, far enough to reach anywhere in the Middle East.
A Shavit space booster similar to the Jericho flawlessly hurled an Israeli spy satellite into orbit May 28. The Ofek 5 satellite will monitor threats from a vantage point more than 230 miles above Earth. It can photograph objects less than 2 feet in size, a capability comparable to that of some U.S. military satellites -- and one that Arab countries don't have.
Rhetoric from adversaries such as Iraq was predictably harsh.
"The launching of the Ofek 5 satellite proves the nature of the Zionist entity and its hostile and criminal intentions," an Iraqi Foreign Ministry statement said. "It also reflects its reckless and unrestrained nature and its frenzied desire for hegemony, domination and expansion beyond the current extents of its hateful alien presence."
'Weapons of terror'
Few countries have worked harder to acquire weapons of mass destruction than Iraq.
As recently as May, U.S. analysts presented evidence to the U.N. Security Council that Iraq was illicitly resuming work on long-range missiles. U.N. sanctions adopted during the Gulf War limit the range of Iraqi missiles to 100 miles. But there are suspicions that many longer-range rockets remain hidden around the country.
Israeli military planners are concerned that if the United States launches a much-anticipated attack against Iraq, Israel again will be the target of Iraqi Scuds. In 1991, Iraq fired about 90 missiles at Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar. Almost half were launched against three Israeli targets: Tel Aviv, Haifa and the Dimona nuclear site. Surprisingly, only two Israelis were killed directly by the strikes.
Iraq's war with Iran from 1980 to 1988 was a different story. Iraqi Scuds killed more than 2,000 people in Tehran and other Iranian cities.
Iraq acquired the Scud B from the Soviet Union in the 1970s. Modifications during Iraq's war with Iran increased the missiles' range to almost 400 miles and enabled the Scuds to reach Tehran. However, crude gyroscopes provide guidance only for part of the rockets' flight, making the Scuds notoriously inaccurate.
"To attack our military, you would need something that would be accurate to more than a few kilometers," Arrow manager Peretz said. "These are weapons of terror that are good only for attacking very large areas like cities."
In 1984, Iraq earned the distinction of becoming the first country to use nerve gas in battle. Experts think Baghdad still has stockpiles of nerve agents and mustard gas. Iraqi scientists also are known to have developed weapons-grade supplies of deadly biological strains, including anthrax. Western intelligence experts say biological-weapons research secretly continues at dual use medical and veterinary clinics throughout the country.
Iraq has pursued a nuclear option since the mid-1970s. After Israeli bombers destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, the program went underground. A 2001 CIA assessment says Iran continues to look for materials needed to produce a nuclear warhead.
Israeli policymakers warn that Israel won't show the same restraint it did in the Gulf War if attacked with Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Then, Saddam had chemical and biological warheads available but didn't use them.
"We believe Saddam still has the residual capability," said Jeremy Issacharoff, deputy director general for strategic affairs at Israel's Foreign Ministry. "Any use of nonconventional weapons against Israel would invite, in my estimation, a very devastating response."
Iranian stockpile
While Iraq is most often vilified by U.S. and Israeli policymakers, many experts contend that Iran -- another member of President Bush's so-called "axis of evil" -- is potentially a greater long-term threat. Other analysts, however, argue the ongoing Iranian buildup is aimed more at neighboring Iraq than Israel.
With help from China, North Korea and Russia, Iran has developed the Shahab 3 missile, apparently a knockoff of the North Korean No Dong. Iran conducted a successful fifth flight test of the Shahab 3 in May. The missile is thought to have a range of at least 800 miles, far enough to reach Israel.
For shorter ranges, Iran has stockpiles of Scuds. A 2001 CIA report suggested Iran was pursuing an even longer-range missile under the guise of a space booster but still had considerable work to do.
Not content merely to build missiles, Iran is suspected of sharing the technology with other Arab nations.
"America's pressure on various countries, including Russia and China, not to cooperate with Iran's missile program will have no effect," Tehran state radio quoted Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani as saying after the latest Shahab 3 test.
The United States has unsuccessfully lobbied Russia to stop construction of a major nuclear reactor in Iran. American protests have, however, frozen delivery of Russian equipment that could be used to produce weapons-grade uranium. Some intelligence estimates predict Iran could have nuclear weapons by the end of the decade. Tehran already has a stockpile of chemical weapons from its war with Iraq and is thought to be conducting biological-weapons research.
"Iran has a much more capable foundation for developing these weapons than Iraq," Steinberg said. "They have a more educated population and a far more developed technical infrastructure."
Other threats
While Iran and Iraq are the most ominous threats, other countries are looking to beef up their arsenals. Libya has short-range Scuds but is working with North Korea and China to develop longer-range versions. Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi long has been suspected of running chemical- and biological-weapons programs.
Syria has one of the most established chemical-weapons efforts in the region, producing large quantities of mustard gas and sarin nerve gas. London-based Jane's Defense News reported last month that Syria had just finished development of an upgraded Scud C missile with a 450-mile range that was equipped to carry chemical warheads. Mass production is expected to start soon.
Egypt, one of the few Arab countries to make peace with Israel, maintains close ties with North Korean and Chinese rocket makers. Its Scud version has a range of almost 300 miles. And Egypt is considered to have the region's oldest chemical-weapons program, dating to the late 1950s.
Farther east, Pakistan officially became the Islamic world's first nuclear power in 1998. Gen. Pervez Musharraf has befriended the West in the war on terrorism. However, many experts say it is only a matter of time before Pakistani nuclear technology is shared with other Muslim nations in the region.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia that appear to harbor few plans for acquiring weapons of mass destruction are caught in the middle. The Saudis already have long-range Chinese missiles. Now, they're rapidly arming themselves with advanced conventional weapons in response to the buildup around them.
Where is the Middle East headed? Experts have a hard time seeing a happy ending.
"As long as Israel has well-founded fears of being pushed into the sea, they're going to have the Bomb," said John Pike, director of the policy-research organization GlobalSecurity.org. "And as long as Israel has the Bomb, their Arab neighbors are going to pursue ballistic missiles with chemical and biological warheads as well as the nuclear option."
Copyright © 2002, Orlando Sentinel
