Global Security Newswire March 14, 2002
U.S. Seeks Range of New Nuclear Capabilities, Leaked Document Indicates
By David Ruppe
WASHINGTON - Excerpts from a leaked version of a classified Pentagon nuclear weapons strategy document were posted on the Internet yesterday, outlining in greater detail than so far reported U.S. plans to develop many new nuclear weapons capabilities, and possibly new warheads, for possible use around the world.
The excerpts also indicate ongoing U.S. military concerns that despite improved relations since the Cold War, Russia may again become a major threat to the United States.
The material also suggests some elements of a reserved "responsive" force of thousands of nuclear warheads and delivery platforms, planned for retention after cuts to deployed U.S. nuclear forces, could be available "in a matter of days," seeming to contradict Assistant Secretary of Defense J. D. Crouch who earlier said it would take "at the very least weeks" to bring the responsive force to bear.
The excerpts of the Jan. 8 Nuclear Posture Review report to Congress were posted by the nongovernmental organization GlobalSecurity.org, not affiliated with Global Security Newswire.
"Greater flexibility is needed with respect to nuclear forces and planning than was the case during the Cold War," said an excerpt. "The assets most valued by the spectrum of potential adversaries in the new security environment may be diverse and, in some cases, U.S. understanding of what an adversary values may evolve."
"What I see in it, which is the reason I think that seeing the entire report is important, is the fundamental disconnect between the unclassified introduction and the classified report," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org.
"In the sense that the unclassified public introduction talks about the need to move beyond Cold War approaches and the need to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons. And yet the report indicates a policy . is basically trying to make nuclear weapons more usable under more circumstances," Pike said.
A Pentagon spokesman said he could not comment on the classified report, when told a leaked version may have been published.
Pursuing New Nuclear Weapons Capabilities
The material offers a fuller picture of the Bush administration program, first reported here last month, to pursue an array of new nuclear weapon capabilities to provide the president with a greater range of nuclear options for dealing with non-Russian threats around the world (see GSN, Feb. 27).
The report outlines a range of administration efforts or identified needs to create such capabilities, including joint "advanced concept initiatives" between the Defense and Energy departments to consider modifying existing warheads for new capabilities.
Desired capabilities include improved earth-penetrating weapons for use against hardened and deeply buried targets and warheads likely to cause less collateral damage.
"With a more effective earth penetrator, many buried targets could be attacked using a weapon with much lower yield than would be required with a surface-burst weapon. This lower yield would achieve the same damage while producing less fallout than would the much larger yield surface burst," it said.
The two departments will study whether those new capabilities might require new nuclear testing, the report said.
They will "jointly review potential programs to provide nuclear capabilities,' and identify opportunities for further study, including assessments of whether nuclear testing would be required to field such warheads."
Other administration goals or initiatives described in the material include expanding the primary U.S. nuclear warhead assembly and disassembly plant; restoring uranium and plutonium production for weapons; shortening the time for researching and developing new nuclear weapons to address unexpected new threats; and developing "agent defeat weapon" concepts now being evaluated for use against chemical or biological weapons.
The report also outlines future strategic delivery systems the Pentagon envisions several programs, including:
* A new extended-range ICBM capable of "trajectory shaping," "strategic relocatable targets," and striking "hardened and deeply buried targets;"
* A new generation of ballistic missile submarines for deployment by 2029;
* A new sea-launched ballistic missile, for deployment on the new submarines;
* Research and development on a ballistic missile that might be launched from land or sea;
* A new strategic bomber for deployment by 2040, or possibly sooner;
* An extension to the life of nuclear-capable F-16s and F-15s, or upgrading the planned Joint Strike Fighter aircraft for a nuclear role; and
* Development of capabilities for targeting and using nuclear weapons more quickly and flexibly to deal with emerging and unexpected threats, as opposed to the traditional Cold War approach of working according to a large, single nuclear war plan.
"Desired capabilities for nuclear weapons systems in flexible, adaptable strike plans include options for variable and reduced yields, high accuracy, and timely employment," the material said, with respect to the last item. "These capabilities would help deter enemy use of WMD or limit collateral damage, should the United States have to defeat enemy WMD capabilities."
Current U.S. Limitations Identified
The material described limitations to current U.S. strategic capabilities:
"Today's nuclear arsenal continues to reflect its Cold War origin, characterized by moderate delivery accuracy, limited earth-penetrator capability, high-yield warheads, silo- and sea-based ballistic missiles with multiple independent reentry vehicles, and limited retargeting capability."
"New capabilities must be developed to defeat emerging threats such as hard and deeply buried targets (HDBT), to find and attack mobile and relocatable targets, to defeat chemical or biological agents, and to improve accuracy and limit collateral damage."
It said that development of those capabilities could include extensive research and timely fielding of new systems.
U.S. officials have said the plan includes consideration of upgrading conventional capabilities for performing strategic missions that might be performed by nuclear weapons.
The posted material suggested the United States might in the future find it harder to abide by the goal of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty former President Bill Clinton signed, but which was never ratified, prohibiting nuclear testing.
"Some problems in the stockpile due to aging and manufacturing defects have already been identified. Increasingly, objective judgments about capability in a nontesting environment will become far more difficult," it said.
"All" Nuclear Use Options Open
Bush administration officials have said while the military is planning to expand capabilities, and thereby options for the president to order using nuclear weapons around the world, that does not indicate the administration is any more inclined than previous administrations to use nuclear weapons.
U.S. readiness to use nuclear weapons resides solely with the president, they said.
"It is U.S. policy that the authority to use nuclear weapons rests solely with the president, and this policy has not changed as a result of the Nuclear Posture Review," Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Michael Humm said last month (see GSN, Feb. 27).
Bush, in a press conference last night, indicated he reserved "all options" to order nuclear strikes in the future, though he did not specify the circumstances.
Just having the capabilities, officials have said, serves as an important deterrent against a range of activities potential adversaries engage in that could harm U.S. security interests.
In line with previous reports, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Libya were described as among the countries where contingencies requiring nuclear use might take place.
Possible scenarios were described as an "Iraqi attack on Israel or its neighbors, a North Korean attack on South Korea, or a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan," apparently referring to China.
Russian Threat Still Important
The material also provides greater insight into continued U.S. concern about a possible reemergence of a Russian threat in sizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
Critics have charged the administration, while announcing large reductions of deployed nuclear warheads and claiming a new relationship with Russia, is still organizing the U.S. arsenal as if Russia were the major threat. They say cuts announced by President George W. Bush and indicated in the review do not shrink the arsenal far enough and say thousands of warheads the administration plans to keep in reserve, along with their delivery platforms, could only be intended for Russia.
The report notes a "changed relationship" between the United States and Russia and noted "no ideological sources of conflict with Moscow."
It also said, however, that Russia's nuclear forces and programs "remain a concern."
"Russia faces many strategic problems around its periphery" and "its future course cannot be charted with certainty," the materials said.
"U.S. planning must take this into account. In the event that U.S. relations with Russia significantly worsen in the future, the U.S. may need to revise its nuclear forces levels and posture."
© Copyright 2002 by National Journal Group, Inc.
