The Associated Press March 12, 2002
United States expanded influence likely to remain in Central Asia
By SALLY BUZBEE
The United States probably will keep its new military ties in central Asia, or expand them, even after the war in Afghanistan ends. That would create a new sphere of influence in a region where American military might was unthinkable a decade ago.
As the leader of the region's most important country, Uzbekistan, visits President Bush on Tuesday at the White House, it is less clear whether American troops will remain based long-term in the former Soviet republics. The alternative, training exercises and military cooperation, is as likely. "I think the (Bush) administration is really struggling with that question right now," said Andrew Hess, an expert on the region at Tufts University's Fletcher School. "The United States' long-term interests in central Asia simply remain unclear."
In the short term, most analysts expect the U.S. military to expand its presence, despite Russia's worry over the growing American influence, and U.S. worries about human rights violations in many of the countries.
The United States sought the military cooperation first to help it fight the war in Afghanistan, and then to ensure that al-Qaida fighters or other Islamic militants couldn't gain a foothold in neighboring countries.
For their part, the countries view the U.S. ties both as a counterbalance against Russian influence, and also as an opportunity to increase their security against the Islamic militants who threaten them, and improve their struggling economies.
"All of these countries are in worse shape now than before the fall of the Soviet Union," Hess said. "They see cooperation with the U.S. as a possible solution."
Uzbek President Islam Karimov is expected to talk about human rights and seek closer economic ties in his talks with Secretary of State Colin Powell and with Bush on Tuesday at the White House.
Bush also meets Tuesday with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who plans to see Powell and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld as well.
The United States reached out to Uzbekistan immediately after Sept. 11, because of the need to have bases near Afghanistan, at a time when Pakistan's support for the war against terrorism was still unclear.
The U.S. military says about 1,000 American soldiers have been at a base in southern Uzbekistan since October. But those who've been to the base say the number appears much larger, and the base appears key to all covert and acknowledged operations inside Afghanistan.
In addition, the United States has troops at an airport in Kyrgyzstan, and recently held nine days of simulated anti-terrorism exercises with that country. Other allied forces are expected to move to bases in Tajikistan.
War commander Gen. Tommy Franks, head of U.S. Central Command, says he has 60,000 troops overall in the region.
Just slightly farther away, but also a concern to Russia, the United States is ready to send 100 to 200 U.S. troops to train forces in Georgia fighting against possible al-Qaida-linked insurgents there.
Despite the new ties, the United States has continued to complain about the countries' human rights abuses. The State Department says Uzbek security forces torture, beat and harass people, and arbitrarily arrest Muslims suspected of extremist sympathies.
Yet U.S. officials also recently announced a tripling of foreign aid to Uzbekistan, to $160 million. A week ago, the Uzbek government allowed the first-ever official registration of an independent human rights organization.
Russian officials, for their part, have grown increasingly nervous about the U.S. military presence in formerly Soviet central Asia, which Russia considers it sphere of influence.
President Vladimir Putin and most other high-ranking Russian officials have said American troops are necessary to fight Islamic extremism and terrorism in the region, which also threatens Russia.
But Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov made clear in early February that Russia assumes "these bases are there on a temporary basis, and only until the end of the anti-terrorist operation."
"Russia is extremely frightened of us remaining there," said Charles Fairbanks, a central Asia specialist at Johns Hopkins University.
U.S. military officials say they have no intention of keeping American troops permanently in central Asia. The United States doesn't want its own bases in the region, but does want access to local bases, Franks says.
"The question, of course, is how guaranteed is our access if there are no (American) bases," Fairbanks said.
For now, the continued instability in Afghanistan makes it likely that U.S. troops will be in the region for some time to come, on the lookout for al-Qaida fighters inside Afghanistan and out.
"Look at the way they're building up troops in the region, building up facilities," said John Pike, a defense analyst at Globalsecurity.org in Washington. "There's no indication they're getting ready to pack up and go home."
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
