Boston Globe February 14, 2002
Bush sees military as option on Iraq
By Bryan Bender, Globe Correspondent
WASHINGTON - President Bush yesterday left open the option of a military attack on Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein, saying the Iraqi president ''needs to understand I am serious.''
As the administration ponders how to topple Hussein, it will rely primarily on covert action by the CIA and other clandestine operations to sabotage the government rather than the kind of large military force that was used during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, said government officials and experts.
Bush said he is considering various options to remove the Iraqi leader and the threat posed by Iraq's outlawed weapons of mass destruction programs. US officials fear that the weapons could get into the hands of terrorist groups.
The president's comments came after senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, said earlier this week that US policy has shifted from containing Iraq to bringing about a ''regime change'' through a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military methods.
But unlike the limited objectives of the UN-backed operation to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait more than a decade ago, a war with Iraq whose stated objective is to topple Hussein would raise the stakes considerably, foreign policy specialists said yesterday. Such a strategy would also risk large numbers of US casualties, a break between Washington and some of its closest allies, and it could lead to increased tensions in the Middle East, they added.
As a result, much of the planning now underway within the Bush administration for how to proceed focuses on how to remove Hussein from his 23-year reign through covert means.
Some of those options, as outlined yesterday by administration officials, include: deploying CIA agents inside Iraq to help foment a coup; inundating the Iraqi population with radio and television broadcasts of anti-Hussein propaganda; training and arming the opposition Iraqi National Congress as well as rebel Kurdish tribes in the north; and inserting small numbers of US special forces and CIA paramilitary fighters to attack strategic targets, perhaps even Hussein himself, in quick but deadly raids - similar to the kind of targeted strikes seen during the US operation in Afghanistan.
The CIA recently received a $1 billion increase from the White House to conduct covert operations in the war on terrorism. Some of that money, according to an intelligence official who asked not to be named, will be focused on the ''Iraq problem.''
''They would like to effect regime change in Iraq as quickly and as cheaply as possible,'' said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, a Virginia-based think tank that specializes in military analysis. ''They will work up the escalation ladder and try relatively low-cost things first.''
Such a strategy might work, according to Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution in Washington.
''If you're serious, you may in the end not have to do the fighting Desert Storm II-style,'' O'Hanlon said.
The obstacles to a Gulf War redux are numerous and potentially frightening, officials said.
For one, key US allies in the Gulf War and the current military campaign in Afghanistan, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have expressed serious concerns about a US military campaign in Iraq. The use of their bases would be crucial in any new war with Iraq. What's more, Russian and European allies who have cooperated in the US-led antiterrorism coalition have urged Washington not to extend the war on terrorism to Baghdad.
''I don't think the support would be there for military action in Iraq,'' a US defense official said yesterday. ''It's a different world than it was in the Gulf War.''
Military and intelligence officials worry that Hussein could resort to using weapons of mass destruction against US forces or launch missiles in retaliation at Israeli targets - as he did during the Gulf War. The specter of attacks with mustard gas or biological weapons - not to mention the consequences of any Israeli response - have chilled the discussions among US officials about finishing the job of the Gulf War.
''The incentive not to use chemical or biological weapons would go away if it becomes an unlimited war on Hussein,'' Pike added.
With limited allied support and a mission that aims to change Iraqi leadership - rather than defend one of its neighbors that defined the Gulf War - Bush and his team will be hard-pressed to mirror the success of his father's administration a decade ago, and it will be difficult to apply the Afghanistan model to pry the Hussein government from power as easily as it did to the smaller and weaker Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
Still, limited military force and the threat of an invasion could be vital to bring about Hussein's demise or to foment a strong opposition to oust him. For example, if Iraqi opposition groups play a large role, US air power may be needed to defend safe havens or liberated zones in the country ''where they can run to,'' said O'Hanlon.
Efforts to wage a propaganda war might also require air strikes on key Iraqi military command and control and other communications facilities.
''One of the ways he controls Iraq is through radio and TV," Pike noted. ''I imagine taking that away as being part of a regime-change strategy.''
Deploying US troops to Kuwait, a key regional ally, will be necessary even if a major ground and air assault on Iraq is not planned, according to O'Hanlon. For the covert activities to strengthen the prospects of a coup, he said, the US must send a clear signal that its troops will march to Baghdad if necessary to achieve the objectives.
''The chances of failure are higher if you are not serious about finishing the job,'' O'Hanlon added.
But there is no guarantee that Hussein can be removed even through covert action.
''It won't be easy,'' the defense official said. ''The Iraqi military is geared toward interior threats and preserving the regime. They are quite good at that.''
Or, as Pike put it, Hussein ''has had the last quarter of the 20th century to guard his regime from outsiders.''
© Copyright 2002 Globe Newspaper Company.
