Chicago Tribune February 8, 2002
Israel: Iran could have nuclear arms in 5 years
By John Diamond
WASHINGTON -- Iran could have a nuclear weapon within three to five years, Israel's defense minister said Thursday, a message the Israeli government has carried to senior Bush administration officials in talks this week.
U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers, meanwhile, that Iran would be in a position to field a nuclear warhead by the end of the decade, a slightly less alarmist position than Israel's. But the CIA cautions that if Iran gets substantial technical help from Russia, or, worse yet, acquires fissile material on the black market, the time window could narrow considerably.
"By the year 2005 they will be ready to produce to the world for the first time an Iranian nuclear bomb," Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer said. "Some of us think it could come earlier."
Visiting Washington this week along with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Ben Eliezer has been trying to boost U.S.-Israeli solidarity on the threat posed by Iran. President Bush last week angered Iranian leaders by listing Iran as one of three countries that form an "axis of evil" allied with international terrorism.
Iran says it's helping U.S.
While harsh rhetoric continued to fly back and forth between Washington and Tehran, the Iranian government said Thursday that it had arrested many members of the ousted Afghan Taliban party fleeing U.S. forces in Afghanistan. And in another sign Iran may be seeking to ease tension with the U.S., the government said it is considering expelling a former Afghan warlord who has opposed the U.S.-backed interim government in Afghanistan.
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Thursday that Iran would not commit aggression in the region or against the United States, but he warned of a severe response if any country attacked Iran.
"The Iranian nation will not initiate an attack because we believe that seeking hegemony is as bad as accepting it," Khamenei said on state television. "But whoever threatens the interests of the Iranian nation or attacks this nation, the answer of the Iranian nation will be harsh and make them regret."
Powell hopes for dialogue
A day earlier, Secretary of State Colin Powell criticized Iran but said he was "still convinced that we may be able to talk to Iran, that we may be able to have a reasonable conversation with Iranian leaders."
Ben Eliezer appeared interested in convincing the Bush administration that Iran poses a threat equal to that of Iraq. "I know the name of the game is Iraq," Ben Eliezer said. But he said of the two countries, "They are twins."
And as to the possibility that Iran may soon acquire nuclear capability, "Who's going to guarantee that they're not going to use it?" he said.
Asked whether Israel would follow the same course it took against Iraq in the 1980s when that country appeared to be developing nuclear capability, namely a pre-emptive air strike, Ben Eliezer said: "I don't think there is a need to use weaponry. . . . There are ways, diplomatic ways, economic ways" to persuade Iran.
Israel was ready to support the U.S. against Iraq, even if that meant a full-blown U.S. military offensive against Saddam Hussein's regime. But Ben Eliezer said the key beneficial result would relate to Iran. "To get into Iraq means to get in between Syria and Iran," he said. "This can be a very good move."
Arms issue alarms Israel
Israel is particularly concerned with Iran in the wake of its capture of a ship carrying tons of small arms, ammunition and explosives to the Palestinian territories. Israeli intelligence says the shipment was planned and assembled with the approval of Tehran.
Speaking to the House Intelligence Committee on Thursday, CIA Director George Tenet said Iran "remains a serious concern because of its across-the-board pursuit of [weapons of mass destruction] and missile capabilities."
Iranian scientists "may be able to indigenously produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon by the end of this decade," Tenet said. "Obtaining material from outside could cut years from this estimate."
Tenet's view is not unanimous within the U.S. intelligence community. According to a threat assessment issued last month by the CIA, one U.S. intelligence agency not named in the report concluded Iran would not have a nuclear weapon by 2010.
John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org said the "nightmare scenario" is that Iran completes a reactor that Russia is helping it to build and then withdraws from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. The plant then could be used to produce plutonium for a nuclear weapon.
Pike said that so far there is no evidence Iran has begun construction of the reprocessing facility that would be needed to produce weapons-grade plutonium. Israel has been predicting for years that Iran will soon have the bomb, he said. "You've had this five-year estimate for the last decade," Pike said.
Copyright © 2002, Chicago Tribune
