Wall Street Journal December 14, 2001
Seoul Balks At U.S. Push To Link North To Terror
By John Larkin, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
SEOUL, South Korea -- Washington and Seoul are developing divergent views concerning the magnitude of the threat posed by North Korea's weapons program, posing a potential stumbling block for U.S. efforts to widen its fight against terrorism.
Over the past month, U.S. President George W. Bush's administration has cited Pyongyang's biological weapons as potentially a new target in its global war on terrorism. John Bolton, the U.S. undersecretary for arms control and international security, last month labeled North Korea second only to Iraq as a producer of biological agents such as anthrax, typhoid and smallpox. And Mr. Bolton told a meeting of the Biological Weapons Convention in Geneva that Pyongyang could deploy biological weapons "within weeks' of a decision to use them.
Mr. Bush later linked North Korea to his antiterrorism campaign by mentioning its missile program in connection with offensive weapons held by Iraq, another potential target. Pyongyang has since responded by accusing Washington of trying to incite a new war against the communist state.
South Korean officials, whose proximity to North Korea makes them most vulnerable to an attack, are less concerned about Pyongyang's weapons threat, however. They concede that North Korea has missiles and possibly other weapons of mass destruction. But they are not as convinced as Washington appears to be that the reclusive state would ever take the risk of using them, or that its biological weapons program is mature.
One senior South Korean diplomat said Seoul's foreign ministry, alarmed by Mr. Bolton's remarks, contacted the U.S. State Department to learn if he had been prompted by any new intelligence on North Korea's biological weapons. "We were told there was no such evidence," the official says.
The views of the South Koreans take on special importance for Washington, because Seoul may oppose attempts by the U.S. to include Pyongyang in the antiterrorism campaign. Seoul is also worried that such strong statements from Washington could hamper its efforts to achieve better relations with North Korea.
There is much speculation about the nature of North Korea's weapons programs. Its chemical weapons program is believed to have begun in the early 1960s and may have stockpiled up to 4,500 metric tons of potentially lethal chemicals like sarin. Pyongyang is suspected of producing biological toxins, both bacterial and viral. North Korea may also possess the ability to use them as weapons. Delivery could be accomplished by artillery or ballistic missiles like the Taepodong 1 rocket test-fired by North Korea in August 1998.
South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's government isn't blind to Pyongyang's decades-long accumulation of offensive weapons. But much of the information on its weapons programs is guesswork, since North Korea guards its security secrets closely. Says the South Korean foreign ministry official: "We don't have hard evidence that North Korea has stockpiled chemical and biological weapons."
Experts in Seoul question whether Pyongyang would ever use the munitions it might have. They point out that Kim Jong Il bargained away his country's nuclear infrastructure in 1994, and may yet do the same with its weapons programs. "North Korea utilizes its weapons, including missiles and biological agents, for purposes of negotiation rather than real use," says Suh Jae Jean, of the government-funded Korea Research Institute for National Unification.
Many North Korea watchers in Seoul allege the U.S. is overdramatizing Pyongyang's missile threat, and more particularly the possibility it may have developed a Taepodong 2 missile capable of hitting Alaska. Mr. Suh says that with China and Russia, North Korea's principal supporters, pushing Kim Jong Il to reconcile with Seoul, it is virtually impossible for Pyongyang to take hostile actions.
That echoes sentiments expressed last year by the Federation of American Scientists when it released new satellite pictures showing North Korea's main missile launch facility at Musudan on the northeast coast. The photographs showed what the federation described as "a facility barely worthy of note, consisting of the most minimal imaginable test infrastructure."
The photographs showed a facility that lacked basic elements of a serious missile program. The absence of paved roads made it unsuitable for winter use. No railway connections, staff housing or propellant storage depots were detected, the federation said.
Copyright ©2001 Wall Street Journal
