Seattle Post-Intelligencer December 14, 2001
Region braces after terror warning
End of Ramadan brings heightened security, but threat remains nebulous
By David Fisher
The end of Ramadan is coming this Sunday, and federal officials say it's time for Americans to worry about terrorist attacks again.
But what kind of attacks? And where?
As it turns out, there are no good answers.
Although the new Office of Homeland Security says the end of the Islamic holy month may bring a heightened threat of attacks on U.S. soil, officials are quick to admit that their concern is based largely on vague intelligence reports and supposition.
One of the few specific statements they have reportedly taken -- from John Walker Lindh, the American who joined the Taliban and who has warned of bioterrorist attacks -- was quickly discounted by the White House on the grounds that Lindh was too low on the terrorist totem pole to be privy to such crucial information.
So what should security managers in the Pacific Northwest do?
The same thing security managers nationwide have tried to do since Sept. 11, analysts say -- protect as many likely targets as possible from a broad array of potential attacks, ranging from suicide bombs to nuclear devices.
Even within the federal government, the results so far have been inconsistent, said John Pike, director of the defense policy group GlobalSecurity.Org in Alexandria, Va.
A case in point: The U.S. Capitol is surrounded by a phalanx of concrete blocks and guards deep enough to protect against a truck bomb. But the Supreme Court building just up the mall is virtually unprotected, as are the Justice Department and the FBI.
Which approach is right?
"I won't presume to know exactly which one is too much or not enough," Pike said. "But it looks to me like these guys are basically working from a different threat assessment."
Nothing new
In January 2000, a few weeks after terrorist suspect Ahmed Ressam was caught in Port Angeles with bomb-making materials in his car, Gov. Gary Locke formed an anti-terrorism council to tighten the state's responses to potential attacks.
There have been some successes, Locke spokeswoman Dana Middleton said.
The Washington National Guard has trained a team to respond to biological or chemical attacks anywhere in the state within an hour. The third such team in the nation to gain Department of Defense certification, the team can assess the types of agents that were used in an attack, help with security, and provide satellite communication to aid police and rescuers on the scene.
Health departments are working on plans to evaluate victims and set up instant clinics to administer stored vaccines, which can be flown in on short notice on a plane kept in the region by the national Centers for Disease Control.
Since Sept. 11, the potential fallout from a variety of terrorist attacks has been considered on a variety of key areas, Middleton said, although she won't say where, or what the fallout might be.
Independent of any state action, security at all Puget Sound-region military bases remains high, with barricades and tighter checks at entrance gates and less detailed public information on troop and ship deployments.
Security has been "heightened" on a number of key civilian installations, including pipelines, natural gas lines and the Hanford nuclear reservation, as has the air of secrecy.
"Is security heightened for those?" Middleton said. "Yes. Can I give you details? No. For reasons of security."
As time goes on, the intensity of planning seems to be picking up.
The Pacific Northwest Economic Region and the Northwest Power Planning Council staged a day-long conference in Spokane last month to focus on pipeline security. Most of the conference was closed to the public.
In Seattle, Rep. Eileen Cody, D-Seattle, chairwoman of the House health care committee, held hearings yesterday to gauge the public health system's ability to deal with bioterrorism.
Still, despite the preparations and the air of suspicion, no one can say whether Washington is or isn't a likely target, Middleton noted. And no one can promise that all targets can be protected.
"If we knew what was going to happen and where, it wouldn't be terrorism, by definition," she said. "So our lives have changed."
General threats
Doubts are beginning to arise that al-Qaida is capable of carrying out frequent, sustained attacks in the West, Pike noted. Although it is reported to have trained tens of thousands of terrorists, the network has managed to stage only about one major attack a year on American interests, including the bombing of U.S. barracks in Saudi Arabia and subsequent attacks on U.S. embassies in Africa and the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole in Yemen.
At most, the foreign attacks have involved 100 to 200 operatives -- a possible indicator that few have the education and sophistication to operate internationally.
In addition, the organization has traditionally hit targets with more symbolic than economic significance, indicating that high-profile symbols of American power in New York, Washington and other major cities might be more likely targets than anything in outlying regions such as the Pacific Northwest.
On the other hand, a rundown of its potential capabilities is chilling, especially if it shifts its focus from heavily guarded targets to the nation's still wide-open gathering spots.
"I don't expect an attack with a nuclear weapon at all," Pike said. "After that, you can just basically work down the threat list. Would they be capable of a radiological weapon, a dirty bomb? Sure. Would it be massively destructive? Probably not. Could they achieve a chemical attack? Probably. Would it be massively destructive? Hopefully not. The same with biologicals.
"Hijacked airplanes? Still a possibility. Truck bombs on public buildings? Always a possibility. Suicide bombers at food courts? Sure. Any day of the week."
The timing of a potential attack during Ramadan or its ending holiday, Eid ul-Fitr, has no historical or religious significance, said Jere Bacharach, a specialist in Middle Eastern studies and director of the Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington.
Islamic extremists often consider suicide attacks acts of martyrdom rewarded in the afterlife. Bacharach said martyrdom during the holy month of Ramadan has no special significance, but worshippers rely on their religious leaders, who would have the final say.
In the post-Sept. 11 world, any assessment of threat potential has to consider that air of irrationality, along with the fact that the consequences of a mistake could be devastating. At the same time, however, emergency management officials don't want to cause undue concern.
Office of Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge has acknowledged that dilemma. He is considering a four-stage "Threat Alert Network" similar to the military's "DEFCON" system, which would allow emergency personnel to classify the seriousness of the threat and to prescribe specific action, spokesman Gordon Johndroe said yesterday.
Such a system would be aimed at helping state and federal law enforcement know how to react to terror warnings.
Last month, for example, California Gov. Gray Davis announced that federal officials had credible evidence that terrorists may have been targeting California bridges, and increased security there -- setting off a wave of concern all along the West Coast.
Nothing happened, and federal officials later said they doubted the strength of the evidence, though Davis defended his actions.
Officials in Western Washington acknowledge that their process for determining which threats are plausible and which aren't is also still "evolving," as Seattle FBI office chief Charlie Mandigo puts it.
"Prior to Sept. 11, people were looking more dispassionately at the threats," Mandigo said. "We're in the process of finding a new equilibrium. It wasn't that people weren't taking them as seriously. It's just that the rules of the game have changed."
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