Aerospace Daily December 13, 2001
Reports of ABM withdrawal spark controversy among observers
By Jefferson Morris
Reports that the Bush Administration will soon signal America's withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty have sparked differing reactions among lawmakers and defense analysts in Washington. The treaty, signed with the former Soviet Union in 1972, forbids national missile defense systems and would preclude much of the Administration's upcoming missile defense testing regime.
In press reports, leading Senate democrats, including Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) and Carl Levin (D-Mich.), have already publicly criticized the decision to withdraw. Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, expressed support for the decision, although he said he wished the U.S. had "done a few more things" to engage with Russia before reaching this point.
Weldon produced a document outlining a broad agenda for engaging and helping Russia on a wide range of issues, which was delivered to the White House just before the recent summit between Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Crawford, Texas.
"I know the Administration was fully supportive of the basic framework [of the document], but I don't think they really took it seriously enough to discuss the details of it [in Crawford]," Weldon said, speaking in Washington Dec. 12.
He said such a discussion would have helped provide political cover for Putin, who is under heavy criticism in Russia, so he "could go back home and say, 'America truly wants to change the direction in our relationship.'"
Analysts react
John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, told The DAILY he was "disappointed, but not surprised" by the reports of America's withdrawal. "I think that they had pretty much indicated that they were going to reach a decision point in this time frame," Pike said.
He said the decision is likely to erode U.S.-Russian relations, along with the spirit of international cooperation following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. "It's still unclear exactly how the Russians are going to react, but ... I think that there is a deep suspicion about long-range American intentions on missile defense," he said.
Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy, said he was "delighted, somewhat surprised, but thrilled that the President has seen the necessity of taking this step." He said his surprise was due to the apparent speed with which the Bush Administration is moving. Press reports had earlier indicated that Bush was going to continue to attempt to cut deals with Russia in an effort to continue testing, while further delaying withdrawal from the ABM Treaty.
"Given what he clearly wanted to do, it was inevitable that he would come to this conclusion in due course," Gaffney said. "It was just a question of whether he would, in the meantime, get himself locked into something that would have made it vastly more difficult to deploy, and even to develop [missile defense]."
Gaffney said he doesn't think the withdrawal will substantively affect relations between the U.S. and Russia, and also dismissed concerns that it would provoke an arms race with China. "The Chinese are going to build up their ballistic missile forces whether there was a missile defense [in the U.S.] or not," he said. However, "I think, if anything, the likelihood that they will actually really build up their missile forces is considerably reduced if we've deployed missile defenses."
Copyright 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
