The Straits Times (Singapore) October 30, 2001
Osama here or there?
LONDON -- For the past six weeks the most formidable manhunt ever assembled has been reduced to chasing shadows. US military planners believe Osama bin Laden, when not on the move, is hiding in one of two places -- in the mountains near Jalalabad or an underground complex in the mountainous Oruzgan province north of Kandahar, according to a Sunday Times report here.
It said Taleban leader, Mullah Omar, was born in Oruzgan, and its tribespeople were said to be fiercely loyal to him. Until recently, US military planners hoped that Osama's habit of moving around would expose his whereabouts but reports now suggest he has abandoned his fleet of maroon Land Cruisers for mules or horses.
Senior intelligence sources quoted in the newspaper report also said there was evidence Osama had cut off all communication, and was intending to lay up for the looming Afghan winter with a small group of trusted fighters and lieutenants.
Fewer than 20 of his 150 elite personal bodyguards are believed to accompany him at any time. The rest have been scouting for new locations, making them secure, or acting as decoys.
These highly-trained men, mainly Egyptians, Uzbeks, Algerians and other Arabs, have sniper rifles with silencers and night sights plus high-tech French communications equipment. What marks them out is their complete loyalty to their leader, whom they have known for 10 years or more.
US defence officials acknowledge that there are hundreds, if not thousands, of caves, tunnels and bunkers in the mountains and deserts of Afghanistan, the legacy of centuries of warfare and of an ancient farming technique that relies on underground water supplies. But they say if Osama and his bodyguards are in the mountains, reconnaissance planes equipped with thermal-guided cameras will be able to spot them.
Laser-guided missiles on Talon gunships can be trained on them. And paratroops can swoop down from Black Hawk helicopters and toss hand grenades into the caves or tunnels. But they are unlikely to nab all the terrorists they are looking for, experts say.
"The US military is prepared to find and destroy these caves. But the notion that we can find Bin Laden's "fortress of solitude' and that all 5,000 of his henchmen are going to be down there among the stalactites, it's just ridiculous," said Mr John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a US-based defence policy research firm.
Aware that his cave complexes would be obvious targets, Osama might have abandoned the hills for a city, where special forces will find it hard to strike. Kandahar, the Taleban's spiritual home, may be too obvious a sanctuary, but other havens exist in the Taleban-controlled towns of Qalat, Ghazni or Khowst, said The Sunday Times.
Copyright 2001 Singapore Press Holdings Limited
