Sunday Mail October 21, 2001
IS THIS THE US'S NEW VIETNAM?
YES
WASHINGTON-based think-tank GlobalSecurity.org says the US and UK forces should prepare for a long fight. Leading member John Pike said: "US and British troops face what is called mission creep - short-term operations that drag out year after year.
"What happens then is you get into nation building. It's a situation where the US has to prop up some government in Kabul and that starts to look like a puppet regime. "This was a problem the US faced in Vietnam.
"In terms of half a million American troops, hundreds of casualties a week and American soldiers at every cross roads, no, I don't think there is any prospect of that.
"But if you're talking about 20,000 Americans at half a dozen bases in and around Afghanistan for the next several years, then, yes, you could see that happening. It is certainly a risk.
"One of the problems for the Soviets in Afghanistan and the US in Vietnam was that people had a hard time understanding why they were fighting a war.
"Those wars on some level appeared to be all pain and no gain.
"Very concrete costs were associated with those wars for rather tenuous and theoretical objectives.
"One fundamental difference in that the 'Why do we fight?' question has been answered - the atrocities of September 11."
NO
JOINT Taliban and al-Qaeda forces will use tried and tested guerrilla warfare in a bid to beat UK and US armies.
But the advanced firepower of the West will make it a short-lived campaign, says expert Dr Rohan Gunaratna.
He said: "The objective of the land troops will be to destroy the capability of the Taliban.
"Catching bin Laden will take longer, maybe as long as a year."
Dr Gunaratna, a researcher at St Andrews University's world-renowned department of international affairs, added: "The Taliban are integrated with al-Qaeda.
"They will not fight like a conventional army and will revert back to tactics used during the Soviet period."
Soviet Union soldiers died in their hundreds trying to defeat the Afghan mujahideen, who used skill and cunning to trap and ambush Red Army troop convoys in mountain passes.
Dr Gunaratna said: "The Taliban are battle hardened.
"But it will not take that long to defeat them because the West's firepower is different and the motivation of American troops is much better."
He warned it is inevitable al-Qaeda will strike back with another attack, but not on the scale of September 11.
He said: "The al-Qaeda cells in the West have been disrupted.
"It will be difficult for them to launch a big, highly co-ordinated operation. But they may revert to car bombings."
Copyright 2001 Scottish Daily Record & Sunday Mail Ltd.
