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Afghan winter and its impact on US military campaign

BOB EDWARDS, host: The weather across Afghanistan during the US bombing campaign has been mild, dry and clear for the most part. But some of the first snow showers of the season are expected in the northern mountains this week. And that will soon be followed by the fierce Afghan winter with heavy snow, bitter cold and ice that has brought past wars in the region to a crawl. The weather in this war, however, may not be much of a factor. NPR's David Molpus reports.

DAVID MOLPUS reporting: A few days ago, the British Defense secretary worried aloud that time is running out for US and British ground attacks in Afghanistan. 'In a few 1eeks' time,' he said, 'the weather will be particularly difficult.' However, US military leaders are more optimistic about their ability to fight right through harsh conditions, which typically start in much of Afghanistan by early November. General Richard Myers, the chairman of the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff. General RICHARD MYERS (Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman): We have an all-weather force. So we're well aware that winter's coming on and we're planning around and through that.

MOLPUS: The more cautionary British view is in line with Afghan history. Alex Alexiev, author of a study on Soviet tactics in Afghanistan, says in that war and in the civil war that followed, the armies largely went into hibernation after the snows fell; keeping warm and fed were the main priorities.

Mr. ALEX ALEXIEV (Author): The passes that you needed to go to to supply your forces, they're snowed in, it cannot be passed. So in the winter, a lot of the Afghan resistance forces just retreated to Pakistan and fighting started in earnest again in beginning of springtime there.

MOLPUS: Alexiev, along with other military analysts, do not expect Afghan forces on the ground to get much of a respite this winter. Michael Rubin, who has been in the country during winter, says US air and commando forces should be able to continue 'tightening the noose,' as he puts it, around the Taliban. He says the weather will become a US ally.

Mr. MICHAEL RUBIN (Institute for Near East Policy): This is much more of a problem for the Taliban than it is for the United States, because the Taliban don't really have the ability to helicopter over or leapfrog over these broken passes. It can be to our advantage because we will have the mobility that they will not have.

MOLPUS: Rubin, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says if Taliban and al-Qaeda forces hunker down and try to stay in their mountain tunnels, they risk running out of supplies or being spotted as they light fires to keep warm. They'll be vulnerable to air strikes and Special Operations ground attacks. If the Taliban try to move to less vulnerable positions, Rubin says their tracks will be even more visible through the snow.

Mr. RUBIN: We're almost like a hawk chasing a mouse, and we can swoop down and we can get them if they come out of their hole.

MOLPUS: Climatologists point out that Afghanistan's weather is actually quite diverse. The winter is not that severe in southern parts of the country, such as Kandahar, a Taliban stronghold. Visibility is actually clearer in the colder weather much of the time. John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, a private intelligence-gathering organization, says the result is a mixed picture.

Mr. JOHN PIKE (GlobalSecurity.org): Looks like they can expect about 50 percent cloud cover over the course of the winter, which means half the time American reconnaissance satellites will be able to spot the Taliban on the move; the other half of the time, they'd be able to hide under cloud cover, just as the Iraqi Scud missile launchers were able to hide under cloud cover during the Gulf War.

MOLPUS: There's no doubt US mobility will be slowed down at times by frigid temperatures, snow and high winds. The notion of an all-weather fighting force is a bit of an exaggeration, according to David Morris, a recently retired captain with Special Ops experience in the Marine Corps.

Captain DAVID MORRIS (Retired): There is no way to not have the weather diminish our firepower on some level. Helicopters can be extremely effective provided that the weather is good. If you have white-out conditions or extreme cold where you could have icing of the rotor blades, that greatly limits helicopters' use.

MOLPUS: Morris says the US military has gone through a steep learning curve on winter fighting, learning from Soviet mistakes in Afghanistan, namely to avoid getting bogged down in a large-scale ground war. Most analysts seem to agree that the current US strategy seems to fit the limitations of Afghan weather. As General Myers said, the US is 'working around the problem.' David Molpus, NPR News, Washington.