Agence France Presse October 12, 2001
US hesitates to smooth opposition drive towards Kabul
By Peter Mackler
Despite the ferocity of their airstrikes on Afghanistan's Taliban regime, US forces appear unwilling to help opposition guerrillas mount a drive on the capital Kabul, analysts here said Thursday. They said Washington seemed intent on containing any push by the opposition Northern Alliance until more comprehensive arrangements could be worked out for a post-Taliban government.
US officials have refused to comment on their bombing patterns. But while shifting focus from logistical facilities to troop concentrations, they have yet to target Taliban lines arrayed against the rebels north of Kabul. "We might not be in a big hurry to knock out the Taliban because more preparation is needed for a post-Taliban political transition," said Steven Aftergood, a defense analyst at the Federation of American Scientists think tank here.
John Pike, director of the Virginia-based group GlobalSecurity.org, agreed. "There are fears that a Northern Alliance seizure (of Kabul) might produce a politically unstable outcome," he said.
The United States has been pounding the Taliban since Sunday for its refusal to hand over Islamic militant Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network, blamed for last month's terror strikes on New York and Washington. But while some in the United States have urged full support for the Northern Alliance and its 15,000-strong army, US officials have clearly been wary of replacing one truculent regime with another.
The Northern Alliance, a loose coalition of Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara and Shiite minorities, has little support among the country's Pashtun majority, analysts say. Neighboring Pakistan, which has emerged as a key ally in the initial military phase of the US war on terrorism, has also made no bones about its distaste for the Northern Alliance.
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher ducked a question on whether the Americans were indeed acceding to Pakistani wishes to keep the Northern Alliance out of Kabul. But he did say, "We do believe that Afghanistan needs a broad-based government. We have been working for many years with the UN and others on that (and) ... we've been keeping in touch with all the various parties."
Retired Army major general William Nash, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said the issue of an eventual post-Taliban government was becoming increasingly important. "There is ample opportunity for chaos," said Nash, a veteran of the Vietnam and Gulf wars. Although rebel commanders were reported earlier this week to be eager for action against the Taliban, a Northern Alliance spokesman told AFP here they had no plans to capture Kabul.
"We would like Kabul to remain demilitarized, as a peaceful symbol for Afghanistan," Daoud Mir said. But he said the opposition would consider moving into the capital if asked to do so by the international community. Some analysts have suggested that Pakistan could play a key role in the future of Afghanistan. Both countries have large Pashtun populations, and Islamabad was the last country to retain official ties to the Taliban.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday the United Nations is likely to play a "very, very important role" in the central Asian state if and when the fundamental Taliban militia are removed from power. But Powell was also due to travel to Pakistan in the coming days as part of a swing through the subcontinent to shore up support for the airstrikes on Afghanistan.
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the United States would seek to exploit "some fissures" in the Taliban regime to destabilize it and possibly prepare the way for a "loose federation" in Afghanistan. "We've had discussions with some of our coalition partners about the eventual shape" of Afghanistan, Armitage told reporters. He suggested the federation could included moderate Taliban members. US officials have said since the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that their war on terrorism would involve a mix of military, diplomatic and economic actions.
Colonel Bob McClure, a defense expert and former assistant professor at the US Military Academy, agreed the elements were coming together in Afghanistan. "There's a lot of grand chess going on in addition to the tactical stuff," he said.
Copyright 2001 Agence France Presse
